Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mmd]

Elon Musk Sees Tesla Master Plan Costing Tens of Billions

About 14 percent of the gigafactory was finished as of Tuesday, the company said during the tour. About 1,000 construction workers were on site, working to meet Musk’s expedited targets.

When is the target date to finish the whole GF? Thanks.

 

[schonelucht]

From :
Tesla Motors opens Gigafactory to expand battery production
To put that in context, New York City uses around 52 gigawatt hours of energy per year.

There must be a mistake here. No way NYC uses this little electricity.

 

[Phil Seastrand]

Yoshihiko Yamada, Panasonic’s executive vice president: I want to explain to you the relationship with Tesla and Panasonic. I used to be in charge of components five or six years ago. At that time our relationship with Tesla was one of supplier and customer. A conventional business relationship.

But since we started discussion on the Gigafactory that’s completely changed. One example, is production capacity is now two or three times more. Why? Because Tesla and manufacturing people worked together. We are discussing these details. This type of relationship is quite new for business. We are not the simple buyer and supplier relationship."

I've always wondered how the relationship between Tesla and Panasonic worked. This sounds much more like a collaboration which is what I was hoping for. It also blows a hole in the FUD about Tesla not adding any value to the battery manufacturing process.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I checked Merrill. They have a PCRFY Buy rating with a price target of 11.81. (last close 9.77, very little movement or volume).

Interestingly, I looked up Panasonic and found PCRFY and PCRFF, and was confused. Then I found an older thread in the Tesla forums regarding the designation. Panasonic Stock | Tesla Motors (I guess in 2013 it was 8-ish a share. But it does pay dividends!)

Quote:
------------
GR5000 | February 17, 2014
I know that this thread is dated... but I came across it via Google as I had the same question as the poster above re. the difference between F and Y stock. I figured it out so thought I'd post it here in case others were interested:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-primer-on-buying-foreign-stocks-throu...

Foreign pink-sheet stocks, whether sponsored or unsponsored, are designated with the letter "Y" at the end of their ticker symbol. Investors should also note that if they see a company with more than one 'Y' share, such as with Volkswagen, they should consult their broker as to what exactly they are getting since the multiple symbols signify different share classes.

An entirely different matter are the shares of foreign companies with ticker symbols ending in 'F' as that represents foreign ordinary shares. The "F" shares are largely unsponsored and created on what's called a grey market by brokers, who have to go to the company's home market to trade the stock. It can be much more difficult for investors to find information on "F" shares, as there are no listing requirements.

Warm regards,

GR
-------------
PS--the Link doesn't work, I tried it.

FWIW-- We had a wonderful Panasonic Plasma 65" (or was is 63"? Can't remember). We Loved it. Picture quality was the best. Just got WAY TOO HOT! And incredibly heavy. We ultimately got rid of it when the housing glue started to dry up and the external frame started to fall off. Still worked great. My wife misses it to this day.

 

[JBRR]

Did anyone else feel like Elon has started building more goodwill with the media that historically has been negative on Tesla?
Inviting Fortune to GF event and linking more to WSJ and Fortune articles on twitter.

 

[JBRR]

"Euro Stoxx Autos sector that is up nearly 2.5 percent this morning after strong results from Peugeot, driving the European stocks higher this morning:"

STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts Index EUR

Would be fair to assume correlation with TSLA SP I assume.

 

[Yggdrasill]

There must be a mistake here. No way NYC uses this little electricity.

New York State uses about 120 TWh per year. Probably around half that will be in the city. So, they're off by around three orders of magnitude.

 

[WarpedOne]

I'd guess it is about classic confusion of units....
120TWh per year is 330 GWh per day or 13 GW average power. I'd imagine power spikes rise two or three times above average - around 30 to 40 GW.

 

[Tslynk67]

Shorts are losing their $hit over a 25% gross margin for model 3.

Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter

Wow, that Spiegel guy is a serious knob-end!

 

[andrerodpt]

Wow, that Spiegel guy is a serious knob-end!

I'm wondering if he also was shorting AAPL...

 

[FANGO]

Hey, at least there's a little progress - acknowledging Tesla has positive gross margin, and supposedly in the teens which would still be higher than basically any other automaker? It's a start.

 

[Robertj]

More Colour on the change from Mobileye to in House for Camera's

It's been in the pipeline for a while

Tesla Autopilot Program Director says need ‘tighter hardware/software integration’ to move ‘quickly’ in autonomous driving

 

[JBRR]

Twitter of Tesla’s Autopilot Program Director, Sterling Anderson:
Sterling Anderson on Twitter

"Sequential game du jour: longtime suitor learns he's being replaced. Can wait for this replacement to introduce himself or claim first move."

Inferring that MBLY knew they were being replaced and tried to get out in front of it.

 

[SBenson]

Musk’s response to how Tesla is going to pay for its master plan: “One part of that is working with strategic partners like Panasonic. We are seeing very good participation from our supplier for the capital costs of the Model 3 ramp. So we are going to fund it by Model S and Model X revenue, with money we have right now, with potentially a modest capital raise, but not a significant one. In a nutshell, there may be a capital raise, but it’s not going to be a huge one.”

It sounds to me like he is saying the master plan may require a modest capital raise, not specifically the model 3. This makes more logical sense as well. Telsa has a certain amount of money, and they are spending it on multiple projects. They wouldn't raise more money for a specific project like the model 3, they'd raise money because they're running out of money overall.

He said S and X revenue but didn't mention 3 revenue in this context. So it appears like the capital raise is needed pre model 3 launch.

The masterplan-2 projects are in design/r&d phases. I'd think they don't need billions of dollars yet. So if capital needs to be raised ahead of model-3 launch/ramp, then it is largely for the sake of model-3.

 

[vgrinshpun]

That is what I'm questioning, how conservative is your conservative For a really small napkin math let's say 92M shares held by institutions, if collectively they are cool with voting with 2/3rds of their holdings there would be no recalls necessary. The reality is probably such that some of them will keep lending 80% and some will recall 80% but your napkin math doesn't look convincing to me to indicate a large recall activity still left to go. Again I'm not saying it won't happen, just that there's not enough data to tell with high confidence.

Edit: forgot to mention that if all the big guys know they'll vote for the merger, it would not be necessary for them to miss out on the profits from landing some of their shares. I'm sure they've done the math already on how many shares do they need to make sure the vote goes their way, and it's highly unlikely it's 100%. 2/3rds sounds about right to me, actually.

Actually, neither math, nor logic that you rely on to come to the conclusion that institutional holders can guarantee the vote goes their way work - so conclusion simply does not hold.

I'll give you a chance to figure out why math does not work. As far as logic is concerned you seem to assume two implausible things: one is that there is possibility for all institutional holders to get into a common meeting, and two - have them agree on a unified strategy for the recall (to assure that they have 2/3 of their holdings at their possession, or whatever the correct number to assure favorable vote is). Good luck with this...

 

[andrerodpt]

I just can't wait to read the headlines the FUD industries will produce with this Elon Musk quote:

Then he added, “It may sound a little strange and sentimental but I find it to be quite romantic. The final shape will be a diamond, aligned on true north, I like that. It seems incredibly romantic. By the way there’s 10,000 wild horses in the area. They just hang out. We have construction ponds for water, so its quite cool to see the horses drink from the construction ponds.”

"Tesla rely on animals to use excess water produced by highly inefficient water ponds - They just waste all water!"

 

[Tslynk67]

Twitter of Tesla’s Autopilot Program Director, Sterling Anderson:
Sterling Anderson on Twitter

"Sequential game du jour: longtime suitor learns he's being replaced. Can wait for this replacement to introduce himself or claim first move."

Inferring that MBLY knew they were being replaced and tried to get out in front of it.

And his previous tweet to this read: "As with transfer pricing, so with product development: use the best technology available regardless of the source"

 

[surfside]

just watched the video of the press Q&A from elektrek; some significant takeaways (the audio isn't great but I don't think i'm misrepresenting anything):

-battery packs for vehicles will first be made at the gigafactory in about 6 months (first for testing and early model 3 prototypes, etc). Conclusion: Tesla will not be making Model S/X battery packs with initial cells from the Gigafactory

-Elon (without anyone asking) mentioned both powerpacks and powerwalls will be made first from cells from the Gigafactory; someone asked about the mix between powerpacks and powerwalls will still be what they originally estimated. Elon
Conclusion: The powerwall is still clearly in Tesla's product road map -- this hasn't changed

-another reporter asked about the stationary storage volumes in 2017; Elon hemmed and hawed a bunch and said it would probably be about a third of the volume of car batteries initially, but had a heavy caveat that it is very hard to predict based on the S curve of the production ramp. I believe he said his best guess was about 10 GW of batteries for stationary storage in 2017.
Conclusion: I haven't had time to run the numbers (about to take off on a flight), so hoping someone can help me with this one!

Finally, on the question of capital raise, it wasn't clear whether the capital raise was re Model 3 or product plan...

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Big banks and sovereign wealth funds are looking for ways to invest TRILLIONS into clean energy projects. Many countries are offering Tesla free land and machinery, along with significant incentives to build a factory in their country. Even Dubai is planning to invest a lot, directly and indirectly into Tesla. It's not hard to see where the $10-$20 billion + will come from. If Tesla raises money from any avenue to avcelorate production, it will be a good thing for investors.

Dubai Civic Fleet to Go 10% Electric

 

[ev-enthusiast]

SP dancing around $229.1 during pre market, keeping it interesting.