Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[yesla]

I only had a few excellent teachers in schools in my life.

Pretty hard IMO to make accounting fascinating.

When the student is ready, the teacher will appear. - dont know who said this.

Entrepreneur learning to manage business taking accounting course will find the experience very different from a business major that is just in it to go through the motions of life... and there are shades of grey in between.

I particularly loath accounting... to my own detriment.

 

[dmckinstry]

Yeah, he and Spiegel like to bounce their tweets off each other.

These guys are some clueless loons. Having a model of the car doesn't make it fake. There are drivable versions in existence - I'm not sure how they can even post this garbage with a straight face.

What? You didn't know the driveable ones were using wound up rubber bands?

 

[Matias]

Passed through a bunch of superchargers yesterday, and was very pleased to note that both Mojave and Mammoth had Powerpacks installed. Didn't actually look at some of the others.

Do we have pictures of superchargers with Powerpacks?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Again a very nice chart so far.

 

[mmd]

Seeing some FUD on lower M3 count. I wonder, if there will be an update on M3 reservation tally in the GF party today. When does the party begin?

 

[yesla]

Looks like a breakout of 235. SCTY following too... come along.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

George B. at the GigaFactory today?
Can anybody please confirm?

 

[esk8mw]

Looks like a breakout of 235. SCTY following too... come along.

As I mentioned earlier, jumping over $235.50 is our big task for the day. We are in good shape if we manage that. Then it's blue skies if we can jump 238 and 240.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Has anyone tried asking their broker if their shares have been lent out? Does your broker have a legal obligated to tell you if you ask?

Would it be possible for Tesla to encourage all shareholders to prevent their shares from being lent out?
Could a publicly traded company introduce a rule that prohibits any firm from lending out its shares?
If Elon and the other directors have already made it so their shares can't be lent out, isn't it impossible for all of the shorts to cover?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

George B. at the GigaFactory today?
Can anybody please confirm?

George B. spoke at TMC Connect about two hours ago, according to the itinerary, assuming everything was on time. Anyone have any video?

Ira Ehrenpreis will be speaking in about 20 minutes.

Just came across this.

Tesla Gigafactory: new building permits show $63 million in latest expansions, new battery module lines

 

[justdoit]

Seeing some FUD on lower M3 count. I wonder, if there will be an update on M3 reservation tally in the GF party today. When does the party begin?

Lower Model 3 reservation count by itself doesn't tell us much. It could be that people changed their minds and cancelled their reservation... or people are going for the new Model S 60D instead.

This WSJ article is really interesting Tech Companies Still Trusted More on Autonomous-Car Development

Looks like the motto "any press is good press" is working pretty well for Tesla. From the article:

"The second survey showed the crash may have raised Tesla’s name recognition in the self-driving sphere and raised awareness of autonomous cars generally. Before the crash, Google was the dominant company people knew of when it came to self-driving cars, at 42%, while Tesla came in second at 23%. In the second survey, 55% of participants cited Tesla, while Google’s name fell to 20%."

Won't be surprised if all the headlines over the past couple of weeks/months (auto pilot crash, gigafactory, etc) will lead to increased demand.

 

[esk8mw]

Lower Model 3 reservation count by itself doesn't tell us much. It could be that people changed their minds and cancelled their reservation... or people are going for the new Model S 60D instead.

This WSJ article is really interesting Tech Companies Still Trusted More on Autonomous-Car Development

Looks like the motto "any press is good press" is working pretty well for Tesla. From the article:

"The second survey showed the crash may have raised Tesla’s name recognition in the self-driving sphere and raised awareness of autonomous cars generally. Before the crash, Google was the dominant company people knew of when it came to self-driving cars, at 42%, while Tesla came in second at 23%. In the second survey, 55% of participants cited Tesla, while Google’s name fell to 20%."

Won't be surprised if all the headlines over the past couple of weeks/months (auto pilot crash, gigafactory, etc) will lead to increased demand.

I tend to agree. No one with any level of intelligence completely writes off a car company or a technology over a single death which resulted from the product not being used as directed. Increasing name recognition outside established markets is a huge positive, though.

It's hard to impress upon some people that live in CA the degree to which Teslas are almost completely unknown to a large segment of the population outside CA. This is why I chuckle when people speak definitively about Model S/X topping out at 60k units or whatever. There's so many underserved markets in the US alone (plus the rest of the world). There's huge untapped potential out there still.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Good catch. But I think , he meant 12 hour day and night shifts.
Even that doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Mon 6 a.m. to Fri 6 p.m. is 4.5 full 24 hour periods = 108 hours = 9 12-hr shifts.
If they are doing 7 shifts total, it is 84 hours = 3.5 24-hour periods.

Surprised, nobody taking the tour clarified this. May be @MikeC made a mistake in quoting what was told.
(At the same time, read an analyst note claiming 50% downtime in Q2 at the Tesla factory. So hard to know what's the true utilization.)

I see nothing contradictory about this. My take on the 3/4-day split-shift is that the factory is running 12-hrs per day, 7 days a week with 2-shifts. That's 50% utilization and doesn't require any shift handoff.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

As I mentioned earlier, jumping over $235.50 is our big task for the day. We are in good shape if we manage that. Then it's blue skies if we can jump 238 and 240.

A closing price above $235.5 would be awesome.

 

[AudubonB]

$2-3-4.5-6 ! Yay!

Next stop: $3-4-5.6-7

???

 

[esk8mw]

$2-3-4.5-6 ! Yay!

Next stop: $3-4-5.6-7

???

More logical to just do $2345.67, right?

 

[mmd]

Lower Model 3 reservation count by itself doesn't tell us much. It could be that people changed their minds and cancelled their reservation... or people are going for the new Model S 60D instead.

I agree. But this wasn't the thought around here when Model 3 was launched and we were getting constant updates from Elon. Check out page 596 on Apr 7th. I said exactly the same thing , just 3 months back. And see the wisecrack responses to that from many long term posters on this thread.

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

 

[racer26]

Lower M3 reservations OBVIOUSLY means there's no demand for the most pre-ordered product in history.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The last 30 minutes should be interesting. It's impossible for the Gigafactory Event to be priced in because no-one knows what will be announced. Elon hinted during the conference call that a number of things he wasn't ready to comment on would be announced at the Gigafactory Event.

 

[MartinAustin]

Will be live streaming the Gigafactory launch party tonight. Check Model S & Model X this eve.

(check Tesla dot com, basically)