Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Crowded Mind]

TSLA and SCTY continuing yesterday's divergence today. Odd.

 

[Yonki]

TSLA and SCTY continuing yesterday's divergence today. Odd.

Yeah - smartly or not I traded some more TSLA for SCTY.

The deal has to go through, right people?

 

[tinm]

Hello $234, long time no see.

 

[esk8mw]

Next stop is resistance at $235.50. Hope we can bust through!

 

[TMSE]

Next stop is resistance at $235.50. Hope we can bust through!

When do we get to $350?

 

[esk8mw]

When do we get to $350?

End of 2017!

 

[neroden]

OK, so the arbitrage gap between SCTY and TSLA is *widening* today. I see absolutely no news which could cause people to think that the odds of the merger were dropping; all the news has made the merger seem more likely.

Any ideas as to what's going on? It baffles me. Inefficient markets!

 

[neroden]

In 7 weeks, oil has fallen from a high of $52/b to below $41/b. It could drop below $40 today.

Does anyone see the decline in oil being used against Tesla at this point? My impression is that the bears are no longer holding this against Tesla. Perhaps as oil reaches universally bearish sentiment and investors fear the spectre of falling general demand, recession, China troubles, etc., Tesla will get an oil attack again. But increasingly the oil market simply looks dysfunctional and beset with its own peculiar set of issues, none of which are shared with Tesla.

Am I reading this correctly?

I dunno! I've been trying to make sense of the oil markets for a while -- making sense of what *other people* think of the oil markets is a step too complicated for me!

 

[racer26]

Seems to me an opportunity ripe for taking advantage of buy TSLA for between $201 and $220/share depending on the rate the deal goes through at.

 

[winfield100]

So is this extra capital needed to take the Gigafactory from 50 GWh capacity to 150 GWh?

definately a vote of confidence.

(btw, there is article on SA by a "lawyer" called Montanaskeptic using picture of model 3 'upskirt' (no battery) saying all is hoax, etc etc who 'lurks' somewhere here on TMC

nice action on TSLA so far today

 

[neroden]

In this Market, Short Sellers who Cannot CAUSE a Stock to Crash are Cannon Fodder

Too many shorts feeling their own impotence these days. It's a tough job shorting the future.

Heh. This is not the sort of stock you short, if you know what you're doing. Shorting Peabody Coal and Arch Coal worked out pretty well if you got the timing right... Short the past. If I were a short-seller (I'm not because of the risk of "the market remaining irrational longer than you can remain solvent") I'd be heavily shorting ExxonMobil and Chevron, and I might do very well by doing so...

 

[winfield100]

So is this extra capital needed to take the Gigafactory from 50 GWh capacity to 150 GWh?

definately a vote of confidence.

(btw, there is article on SA by a "lawyer" called Montanaskeptic using picture of model 3 'upskirt' (no battery) saying all is hoax, etc etc who 'lurks' somewhere here on TMC

nice action on TSLA so far today

 

[schonelucht]

Passed through a bunch of superchargers yesterday, and was very pleased to note that both Mojave and Mammoth had Powerpacks installed. Didn't actually look at some of the others.

Would love to see a Tesla white paper detailing the economics of installing these powerpacks. How much peak shaving they do, what kind of cost savings this translates too, etc.. I believe such information would be well received both by potential customers and the broader market that is still skeptical about TE's unique selling advantage. At least, that's how it would work for this skeptic.

 

[schonelucht]

OK, so the arbitrage gap between SCTY and TSLA is *widening* today. I see absolutely no news which could cause people to think that the odds of the merger were dropping; all the news has made the merger seem more likely.

Any ideas as to what's going on? It baffles me. Inefficient markets!

How set in stone is the announced exchange band? If SCTY fundamentals weakened, for example, with a weak upcoming quarterly report, would TSLA be in a position to lower the stock exchange factor in its final offering?

 

[neroden]

I think it's because they talked about having the board votes and information release done a week or two ago. The longer the wait between the offer and the acceptance, the more uncertainty, plus there's just a lot of other info to take in right now too. If everyone learned accounting and paid enough attention, then markets might be rational, until then I guess good old irrationality is the name of the game.

Thanks, this is the best explanation I've seen for the arbitrage gap increasing.

I will note that the put premiums on SCTY were stratosphere-high and have finally been shrinking to merely sky-high. It's possible some SCTY bears switched from put buying to short-selling, though I don't see why they didn't switch to TSLA; I guess they really don't think the merger will go through.

 

[neroden]

How set in stone is the announced exchange band? If SCTY fundamentals weakened, for example, with a weak upcoming quarterly report, would TSLA be in a position to lower the stock exchange factor in its final offering?

Maybe. I really don't think so, though. Pretty much the only thing announced in the initial letter was the exchange band. I guess they also gave a dollar valuation for it. Making an offer which was lower than the exchange band could be viewed as reneging on the offer, which wouldn't look good and would create bad blood. If TSLA went way up then they could cut the offer by making it the same dollar value and claim that they weren't reneging, I suppose.

 

[tander]

The higher the production rate, the higher the number of vehicles in transit.
So if you assume average 2 week delivery time, with a weekly rate of 2400 at the end of Q4 the number would be back up to ~5000 anyway.
I think this would be a good moment to get away from the geo-based production ordering and switch to a more consistent delivery rate world wide. This would also allow an easier scaling of the deliveries at the Service Centers, because right now they are very biased towards the second half of a quarter.
Depending on the actual ramp up and the desire and/or need to get or break the projected deliveries, tesla will access the pipeline like they did end of last year

I think you're basically right, but at the same time I wouldn't discount their ability to just put a little more into logistics and plan to deliver all the close cars in the last couple weeks, which could eliminate a lot of the "in transit" cars. For example if I remember right they said that most of the 5k in transit from last time missed the target by only a day or two.

 

[racer26]

Would love to see a Tesla white paper detailing the economics of installing these powerpacks. How much peak shaving they do, what kind of cost savings this translates too, etc.. I believe such information would be well received both by potential customers and the broader market that is still skeptical about TE's unique selling advantage. At least, that's how it would work for this skeptic.

Its pretty straightforward math.

If you're talking purely about using a powerpack/powerwall to shift usage from on-peak time to off-peak, it can move its capacity's amount of usage from one timeslot to the other.

Example:

10kWh PowerWall moves 10kWh from on-peak at ($0.15/kWh) to off-peak at ($0.07/kWh). a net savings of $0.08 per kWh or $0.80 per cycle, multiplied by the cycle life of ~1000 cycles = $800 in savings by time-shifting your usage. The PowerWall charges itself during off-peak time to be discharged offsetting your on-peak usage.

For larger PowerPacks at superchargers, the primary benefit is being able to swallow big peak demand instead of requiring the grid to. Large power consumers like factories have to pay for a peak demand charge (ie. if you need 150kW all at once say, to run a supercharger, you pay an extra charge for that on top of the per kWh rate). A PowerPack can charge itself slowly from the grid and not incur as large a demand charge, and then discharge quickly to provide the big demand to run the supercharger.

How set in stone is the announced exchange band? If SCTY fundamentals weakened, for example, with a weak upcoming quarterly report, would TSLA be in a position to lower the stock exchange factor in its final offering?

It would be exceptionally rare for a company offering a buyout to lower their offer.

 

[winfield100]

I dunno! I've been trying to make sense of the oil markets for a while -- making sense of what *other people* think of the oil markets is a step too complicated for me!

try reading stuff on "Assoc for study of peak oil" Association for the Study of Peak Oil USA they dont seem to know either. prices going up, prices going down, saudis declare 'truce' in oil war, surviving frackers survive, brexit may hurt/help, who knows. you can get daily emails tho. guy is ex cia analyst. i used to think prices were going up, clueless now. siberia burping CH4. lots of fear everywhere

 

[Johan]

It would be exceptionally rare for a company offering a buyout to lower their offer.

The question becomes did the primarily offer an exchange ratio (TSLA shares per SCTY) or a $$$ offer (with TSLA shares as the "currency")?