Last quarter I believed they'd make guidance big time. Since then I've begun watching VINs. While Tesla didn't guide deliveries for this quarter specifically, given the production growth profile they gave, we should expect Q3 to be 10% slower than Q4 and both totalling up to 50k or something like 23-24k for Q3 and 26-27k for Q4. Anything lower than 23k for Q3 and I am not sure how I can see Q4 deliveries still being strong enough to make the full year goal.
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Last quarter I believed they'd make guidance big time. Since then I've begun watching VINs. While Tesla didn't guide deliveries for this quarter specifically, given the production growth profile they gave, we should expect Q3 to be 10% slower than Q4 and both totalling up to 50k or something like 23-24k for Q3 and 26-27k for Q4. Anything lower than 23k for Q3 and I am not sure how I can see Q4 deliveries still being strong enough to make the full year goal.
They delivered ~12420 MS in Q2/2016. Why you think Q3 has a lower number? Based upon my observation, Q3 MS deliveries should be stronger than Q2, likely much stronger. Their change to Oct delivery is consistent with my estimation using google spreadsheet.
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Simple math : first S cars to be delivered in Q3 where 147xxx, last cars 158xxx. OepsI ! missed my 'simple' math
11k then + 1k inventory. Why do you think Q3 should be stronger yet? (I am assuming you mistyped the quarter numbers). You do remind me however on the unusually large pipeline at the end of Q2. Could deliver another 1k Model S's from that maybe.
If you are planning to hold long term, it is silly to wait for a pull back that probably won't happen. If you are lucky, it might get to 215. That is only a $500 savings on 100 shares compared to buying at 220. Not worth missing the boat if it goes higher, which it should in the next month. Just buy now and sell in 10 years with would should be a very nice profit.
Simple math : first S cars to be delivered in Q3 where 147xxx, last cars 158xxx. OepsI ! missed my 'simple' math
Sorry about the typos.
There are apparently multiple 144XXX US delivered in Q3. Also several smaller VINs delivered outside US.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Those 144's are people who specifically requested a later delivery. It seems reasonable to assume a comparable number of people who got a VIN this quarter will do the same so the numbers cancel out (likely small to begin with). Same with overseas orders, there too, a number of those counted in the 147-158 range will only get their quarter next quarter.
At the same time, you'll find many more 144's in Q2 delivery tab. I still think most of those in Q3 are outliers but you certainly have a point that with the unusual backlog it could be a bit more outliers than we'll see this quarter. Yet I will be very surprised if it is more than 1k that way.
Would counting VINs for Q2 have resulted in a more accurate estimate for the actual delivery numbers?
I am all for better estimates, after the wide misses last quarter.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Simple math : first S cars to be delivered in Q3 where 147xxx, last cars 158xxx. OepsI ! missed my 'simple' math
I don't even know where tracker is, so I don't have numbers handy, but I'm looking for thoughts if my method makes sense:
- If we take cars with smallest VINs assigned in Q3, subtract from 158xxx, those are all cars that were assigned VIN in Q3 and will be delivered in Q3. Following existing discussion I guess that should be just under 8K MS and maybe 7K MX? Almost 15K?
- Add to that 5K cars in transit at the end of Q2, 5K
- Add to that cars with assigned VINs at the end of Q2, but not yet finished in Q2. What is average manufacturing elapsed time - 10 days? Say conservatively 2K cars
- From now, until end of September, we expect 8-10K orders(guess), with about 20 days of those orders produced by the end of the quarter, and these become cars in transit, so maybe 5-6K cars in transit. Last 10 days or orders in September will be produced/finalized in Q4.
- Maybe last hurray delivery squeeze to California - 1K?
Take all this together, and we're looking at around 22K-23K deliveries.
Does this makes sense to anyone? I'd appreciate numerical corrections from people that count VINs.
The effect of this will almost exclusively come in early January. I'd expect something like 28k deliveries in Q4, then 15-20k deliveries in Q1.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
As far as I can remember VIN counting did not help getting a good estimate for last quarters deliveries.
The TMC consensus for last quarter deliveries was way off. A posteriori everyone is knowing better, as always.
Everything I know about deliveries and demand is that almost no Model X vehicles from the waiting list got delivered in Europe so far. So it is ridiculous to say deliveries and demand are falling because less than zero would translate to negative deliveries and demand in Europe.
Not very realistic either.
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Some quarters it worked, some it was way off. But I think that is also because as simple as "counting" sounds, there are subtle differences on how to do it (for example I think taking the absolute lowest VIN from a quarter and subtracting the lowest is misleading, because you base your analysis on outliers).
How many would count for you? 156 Model X this quarter in Norway and 122 out of those this month. So one might assume the other European countries got some, too. Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
By next month I mean beginning of October (although the SP might start climbing the last week or two of September if news leaks indicated a beat) when production/delivery numbers are released for Q3 (assuming of course that Tesla actually meets or exceeds guidance). If we finally hit the numbers Elon keeps promising, I would be shocked if we don't pass 240 and maybe 260, but of course, I've been wrong the last 2 quarters because they keep surprising us by falling short on deliveries....
I am not sure EM/TM actually gave Q3 guidance. IIRC, it was conspicuously absent from Q2 ER/CC and he only gave H2 50K guidance. It appears to me (and I can certainly be wrong) that collectively on TMC we are all looking for 20-21K and WE are using that as the 'guidance'.
EM/TM gave themselves some wiggle room this time by making the guidance H2 and not Q3. Smart, IMO.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Thank you both! Very useful!
IMO for Q3 we need about 23k to get a substantial increase in the SP.
But even if they only hit 21-22k aren't the financials set to look a lot better between the lull in model x capex and model 3 capex and Q3 being the first quarter with ramped MX output?
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yes. Financials will look better
Yes, 21k in Q3 is a "win" in my book. Tesla said said higher production rate in Q4 (with one less week of production)
Also, IMO, Wall Street analysts have know now that TM guidance is always "aggressive". TSLA will hold up fine with 2nd half deliveries less than 50k.
Elon said 2H guidance was "around" 50k. That's "soft" language. Expect less...
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