VIN movement suggests that. After barely getting a few entries for the month of August, in the past week or so, there have been equal number or more. Unsurprisingly, the 2 years lease seems to be doing the trick as out of the last 13 entries (checked last night), 11 are 60 or 60d.
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And with September deliveries being a wrap, I now estimate Model S new deliveries to be right around 10k this quarter. Possibly they moved another 1k inventory for 11k total Model S deliveries. I wouldn't be so quick to call victory however. Remember what we said last quarter when estimated deliveries moved out to the next quarter...
3Victoria
Active Member
I don't write short puts unless I'm OK with getting assigned. So I can't say anything about that...
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yeah, I have concerns
And What's your est for MX this qtr?
Yeah, I'm suspicious of this move to "October delivery" (U.S,).
I don't know what to think
Yeah, I have concerns
And What's your est for MX this qtr?
Yeah, I'm suspicious of this move to "October delivery" (U.S,).
I don't know what to think
Just to add, the estimated delivery time moved from "End of September" to "October", NOT from "September" to "October"
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
In case there was any doubt Acid Trip is once again proving that he's completely clueless on many levels.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yep. And in moving to Oct, tesla is apparently signaling they are "booked up" on orders for delivery in Q3.
I'm not sure I really believe that. In other words, for east coast delivery sure. For CA, probably still "late Sep"
Thoughts anyone?
Unlikely that Tesla had any shutdown in Q3 due to need to ramp Model X production to 1,000/week. Below are quotes from the Q2 letter and conference call transcript (published August 3rd) that reflect on the production rate one month into Q3 and projections for the second half of 2016.
Letter:
"Production and demand are on track to support deliveries of approximately 50,000 new Model S and Model X vehicles during the second
half of 2016."
Conference Call Transcript
Musk:
"So, I mean, I think in sort of a nutshell, one way to think about Tesla right now is that we're right around 2,000 cars a week and we're trying to balance the mix to be roughly half Model X and Model S."
"But a high-level overview is just we see demand being fairly strong at an average of 2,000 cars a week and we're able to maintain production at that level, notwithstanding occasional supplier hiccups. And then hopefully, we can grow that a little bit towards the end of the quarter and then a little more in Q4. And our aspiration that's unvarnished here, this is just what we're aiming to do internally is to do a little better than 2,000 a week in sales and deliveries in Q4, combined Model S and Model X."
Wheeler:
"But now we're pretty stable at the 2,000 cars a week level. And every time we (22:42), it's getting better. So that each passing week gets better and better."
Musk:
"And then we just managed to climb out of hell in like basically partway through June. And now the production line is humming and our suppliers mostly have their *sugar* together. There's a few that don't. One I'm going to be visiting on Saturday personally to figure out what the hell's going on there. But we'll solve it."
"So, yes, with that said, production is like, it feels like we're – I'm not losing sleep at night literally because of production issues right now. 2,000 feels like a good number with a slow, steady increase in that number,..."
Wheeler:
"Yes, I think, Elon, I think you covered it well. In terms of the modeling question, yes, I think just extrapolating from where we're at now, we're stable. We'll continue to get better on production throughout the course of the year. We've got a couple more holiday weeks in Q4. You might want to think about that when you're doing your modeling. But, yes, I think Elon covered it well."
SunCatcher
Member
Excellent article!
Excerpts;
"One small step in Musk’s plan involves merging Tesla, his electric car company, with SolarCity, his cousin’s solar panel maker. That deal—announced in August—has been getting all sorts of blowback from short-term-thinking Wall Street nincompoops, who groan that both companies are losing money and the merger won’t help. Such doubts about Musk are like asking the Wright brothers in 1899 why they were fiddling with bicycle parts."
"Electric utilities will become a shrinking provider of last resort, like the U.S. Postal Service or telephone company landlines. Some people will drive gas-powered cars, but doing so will become about as unwelcome as riding a turd-dropping horse down New York City’s Fifth Avenue. Gas cars will also get less convenient as gas stations one by one go out of business or convert to charging stations for electric cars."
Krugerrand
Meow
Ploy.
Decoy.
Cover Up.
Conspiracy.
Shady Practice.
Outright Lie.
GOT to be one of those. GOT TO!
So, an article comparing solarcity to the Wright brother.
Yep, those Wright brother. Assemblers of foreign made bike parts sold to customers with complicated financing that obscures the economics to the maximum extent possible.
This is an important weekend for news because we're sitting right on the $220 support level. Shorts are really hoping to dive below the $220 level and shake up longs so that they can find an attractive exit point prior to the early October Q3 delivery numbers. We've been trading for a few weeks now in the $220-$230 band. The question for Monday is: Do we drop below $220 or do we head upwards, back into more comfortable areas of the band? So far, with Tesla changing delivery estimates to "October" for S and X, and with generally good media stories coming out, I think we're more likely to go up than down. What the broader markets do on Monday will be an influence, too.
This theory just occurred to me.
How much of an effect does Autopilot have on the max range of a Mode S, Model X and Model 3? In theory, when the vehicle is using Autopilot, the vehicle should be able to increase the maximum range by handling acceleration and deceleration a lot more efficiently than a person is able to.
If the vehicle is aware of traffic and weather conditions and the average speed at specific points across a route, it should, by definition be able to increase the max range, since it is impossible for a person to do this.
How has Autopilot effected your avg range?
How much of an effect does Autopilot have on the max range of a Mode S, Model X and Model 3? In theory, when the vehicle is using Autopilot, the vehicle should be able to increase the maximum range by handling acceleration and deceleration a lot more efficiently than a person is able to.
If the vehicle is aware of traffic and weather conditions and the average speed at specific points across a route, it should, by definition be able to increase the max range, since it is impossible for a person to do this.
How has Autopilot effected your avg range?
N5329K
Active Member
I think when the AP can recognize a hill coming and, traffic permitting, speed up on the downslope to capture some inexpensive energy, it might be able to boost range by some noticeable amount. I do this all the time to keep a hybrid in electric mode. It seems to work. But asking the AP to function on that level- balancing traffic, speed limits, topography and energy optimization- is kind of asking a lot.
Robin
Robin
Long-time follower, first time poster. Waiting for a pullback in share price in order to buy. I plan on holding for the long-term.
Question: Why do you believe Tesla will only deliver 10-11 thousand Model S cars in Q3? That seems very low relative to expectations of 25K for each of Q3 and Q4. I realize Tesla will also deliver many Model X, but still I was expecting at minimum 14,000 S and 7000 X in Q3.
Thanks for your thoughts.
It might be something like 11k Model S and 10k Model X. But I suspect you're talking more like 13k Model S and 9k Model X.
There's no guidance beyond 50k for 2nd half of 2017. I suspect they won't empty the pipeline until December. Which means you can have 28k deliveries in Q4 without much of an issue.
There's no guidance beyond 50k for 2nd half of 2017. I suspect they won't empty the pipeline until December. Which means you can have 28k deliveries in Q4 without much of an issue.
Got it. I was not counting on anything near that many Model X. If your figure of 9-10K is correct in Q3, that would be good news. I was only counting on 6-7K. Though counting X VINs is difficult due to the gaps in the VINs.
The more I look at the S VINs on the Google spreadsheet VIN tracker, I see how one could legitimately think there are only 10-11K S being delivered in Q3. There are a large number of data points in the Q3 sheet (bullish) but the VIN range indeed only suggests 10-11K deliveries (bearish). Not sure what to think, other than VIN counting is hard.
Thanks for helping a newbie.
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