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Anyone knows a MSFT investor forum as good as here? I want to know about the business potential about the ChatGPT.

My simple estimation concludes the same situation: TSLA is substantially under appreciated by institutions. Using fintel.io data, I made the following table, showing the top 11 largest companies by market cap. Compared with AAPL, TSLA is 0.339 of its market cap, but the institution owned...

Hello, Many are waiting for the Moody’s and S&P to upgrade Tesla to investment grade. It might be a substantial catalyzer for the share price. Since the rating would be mostly advisory to mutual fund, pension fund, it is important to understand the institutional ownership at present. I made...

Thanks for your reply! I am concerned about the high IV. My personal best entry point for DOTM LEAPS is when both share price and IV are down significantly. Right now IV is too high. And you are right, given the TSLA being the largest options trading ticker, AND the macro, it requires a lot of...

I am waiting for IV to come down in the next few months in order to bug LEAPS. If the IV for 2024 Jan/Jun call options can subside to ~40 (IV was ~40 in Oct-2021), these DOTM LEAPS (strike $2000) can be pretty cheap (about ~$10). If all played out well in 2023 with Berlin and Austin giga...

Hello, I am new to the options trading. Could someone help me to understand two questions? 1. Why is the intraday IV almost always anti-correlated with the stock price? See the picture below showing today's wild swing. 2. To bet TSLA rising significantly in the next two years, one may buy deep...

The bulk buying process at the last minutes of tomorrow allows the ETF\Mutual Funds etc. to sell to index funds at the closing price, whatever it is. Index funds do not care SP of TSLA, they just want to minimize the tracking error. If I were ETF manager, I only care if I can sell all the TSLA...

Both production and delivery numbers of model 3 are not very good in China for April. April delivery: 3635 Jan-April delivery total: 19705 April production: 11211 Only for Model 3. Another data: Troy's Model 3 tracker and Model Y tracker show very very few entries since mid March...

Delivering inventory cars is not a question. The real concern is how much new orders (US, CA and EU) they will have for Q2. A future Tesla owner may worry about their own financial situation/job security, as well as Tesla's production and on-time delivery during the pandemic. Therefore...

Has anyone paid attention to Troy's Model-3 and Model-Y google spreadsheet trackers? I am worried about the short-term demand across US and EU, because there is essentially zero new entry since late March. I hope I read his spreadsheet wrong...

Hi Troy, Is there a link to the M3 VIN scatter plot? It looks like you are hiding one of the most reliable sources :)

BTW, where is Troy's vin scatter plot? It is one of the most reliable sources, but I can't find it anymore. Teslike Model 3 Survey #3

Will Warren Buffett provide funding?

Also here are some details about US July sales for BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Lexus, Jaguar, that echo Tesla's chart in the Q2 letter.

Model 3 sales number 6250, based InsideEV's estimate. It is now number one in premium mid-size sedan segment 2018 May sales numbers: ---------------------- 2018 2017 % BMW 3 Series 3,428 4,453 -23.0% BMW 4 Series 2,937 3,895 -24.6% MB C-CLASS 5,419...

It looks like a potential record delivery Q for Europe. However... I looked through model S google spreadsheet. Essentially, no VIN, except for one, was issued after 11/11. In the meantime, very few 2018 entries yet. Any idea why? Because they have already enough customized orders for this Q...

I understand this. "Production hell" doesn't worry me. MX was hard to manufacture; M3 challenge is on the steep ramp up. But I still want to compare the situations around these two's initial delivery time.

Can anyone summarize the differences and similarities between M3 delivery and MX delivery? For instance, sighting of test mules, initial delivery numbers, Musk's remarks on the ramp up, online configurator launch, test rides and etc. Hope this can help me understand the "production hell". Thanks.

I would like to report my observation of the google spreadsheet. Since Dec 12, there were virtually very few entries (~10) in the google spreadsheet for the MS 16-Q4. However, in the first two weeks of Dec, there were about 4~5 entries per day. In the meantime, 17-Q1 spreadsheet was also barely...

disappointed by the the letter. Besides the outlook of Q4 and beyond, which remains to be seen, does this letter provide anything we don't know? Unfortunately, NO. I see TSLA goes to 180 in the next several days.

There were essentially no 163XXX 165XXX 168XXX reported. Normally, about 5~20 were reported for each 1k VINs. Since the facelift, only one 135XXX and two 136XXX reported until today.

I think your estimate doesn't reflect the truth. One needs to check how many VINs actually reported, rather than just subtracting the lowest from the highest VINs. It is because Tesla sometimes reserves batches of VINs, e.g., maybe just didn't use at all. One clear example is the second quarter...

After sluggish start early this quarter, there is a small bust of VIN assignments in google spreadsheets today and yesterday, which indicates the production/delivery for US Q4 becomes normal.

But your strategy is not hedged against the overall market sell off.

In order to catch the substantial arbitrage opportunity, the simplest strategy is probably to short 1 share of TSLA and long 1/0.11 shares of SCTY. The underlying assumption is of course those traders must believe the merger will eventually happen. With >3.5% green in SCTY and ~0.7% green in...

Suppose the Tesla Vision/Glass is really intended to get rid of the dashboard cluster. What are the current US regulations on the requirement of a dashboard cluster?

Can you elaborate?

VIN 169XXX assigned today.

Normally, there were about 10~20 entries for each one thousand VINs on the google spreadsheets. But back in the late March and early April, there were only one 135XXX and two 136XXX, though a bunch of inventory cars. That was the time during the MS facelift. Now we are seeing a similar...

I don't know where to post this question... We finished 7 days of Oct., but the MS google spreadsheets barely changed. If including the last 10 days of Sept., we are seeing ~14-20 days without new entries. I am a little concerned.

They will probably raise capital before Q3 ER.

Highly likely. I don't see reasons otherwise.

I have an ev-cpo.com account. But I am not sure I understand their data. For example, does "This page last updated at: 2016-07-15 08:54:02 due to: --- ~~~~~~~~~" mean sold on 7-15? Sometimes, "--- ~~~~~~~~~Cached page is not available." As you have indicated, it seems impossible to know if a...

The google spreadsheets data show very rare 133XXX 134XXX 135XXX VINs reported. Those reported were all delivered outside of the US. Some other points: 1. These cars were probably produced in April. 2. There are many sold/relisted inventory cars 133XXX-135XXX on ev-cpo. They located in the US...

Using Model S delivery spreadsheets, I got the following statistics, number of deliveries for each 1000 VINs. My feeling is that MS Q3 number is about ~13000+/-500, although different people would have different interpretations. As many others have pointed out, the recent inventory push makes...

Thanks bonaire. What does the "MS Vins MX Vins" ? How did you estimate that?

Anyone know how many Model S were produced in Q2 2016? I can find total production of 18345 units, but not the MS/MX split.

Thanks. Do you know if there is any research on the number of inventory or CPO cars delivered each quarter?

Anyone know if there is a way to estimate how many inventory (new/pre-owned) cars are sold for a given quarter/month?

First Tesla autopilot death was caused in China on January 20th this year,somebody covered the fact for a good half year. • /r/cars Claimed to be the first autopilot-related death back in January. Tesla sued in China.

I recall that a figure related to the VIN assignment rate was occasionally posted in this forum; but I can't find it. Could anyone share a link? Thanks.

Yeah, I understand the >200 miles argument. I am actually speculating what other measures they will use to stimulate the demand.

We may soon see downgrade by major institutions, like GS or MS. Then see you at 180

Anyone think they will introduce/reintroduce MS 50 and MS 40? If so, what time would it be?

He wanted to save the stock price. miserable.

You mean this? Google Translate

Only two out of eight 144XXXs did not request earliest delivery.

Sorry about the typos. There are apparently multiple 144XXX US delivered in Q3. Also several smaller VINs delivered outside US.

They delivered ~12420 MS in Q2/2016. Why you think Q3 has a lower number? Based upon my observation, Q3 MS deliveries should be stronger than Q2, likely much stronger. Their change to Oct delivery is consistent with my estimation using google spreadsheet.

Multiple 158XXX reported with the VINs assigned on 8/25 and 8/26. Two are P100DL and three are 60.