Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[TrendTrader007]

TSLA 6 weeks down in a row means next week has a high probability of being positive
similarly, 5th quarter down in a row is unprecedented in the history of TSLA as a publicly traded company (i am talking about SP here) so what is the probability that next quarter will be negative
extremely slim

PS: i must add that we still have 3 more weeks before this quarter closes so the jury is still out. there might be a short term market crash or melt down but i don't care, i will continue to hold TSLA

 

[3Victoria]

Capital raise might be loans vs share raise. Obviously Tesla is not immune to disasters, but then no company is. The near term goals (ie Model 3) appear reasonable and doable (in terms of investment, technology, and price) and further goals (Model Y, pickup) seem to be achievable, too. The SolarCity deal is good, but the timing is not the best from distraction point of view, but probably is from a financial one - their problems re debt seem overblown to me. Overall Tesla seems to be on target.

Both Apple, re-imaging their car projects, and BMW, taking a time out to reconsider their goals, demonstrate that Tesla is in a good position. I think the bigger threat is from China, they appear to be going hell-for-leather, with excellent support from their government.

I am Canadian, but I am sorry to see the lack of support in USA for a USA designed, developed and built EV. It displays all the attributes that Americans love to self-promote: self-reliance, American know-how, excellence, cutting edge, jobs, and taxes. What's not to like. Seems like jealousy from the peanut-gallery.

 

[Intl Professor]

Many thanks to the administrators for the recent update to the TMC site. Particularly useful is the new posts button. This remains the absolute best web site I've encountered in terms of flexibility, stability, and innovation. The content is pretty good too!

Edit: Could be its been there for awhile and I just noticed it. But thanks and congrats anyway.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I am all in on TSLA, actually more than 100%, as I have some leap options, so I can't be buying anything else.
And I have zero interest in SCTY - solar is great, but SCTY seems to be mess of a company.
Been there(in SCTY), done that, lost as much as I felt comfortable on it.

i am also 110% in TSLA that is 100% of my portfolio is in TSLA plus i have 10% on margin
plus i got J18 bunch of calls
if this sucker goes down with the market, i will simply not look at my accounts and ride it out unless something fundamental changes.
over the years i gave left literally millions of dollars on the table by not holding stocks when the going gets tough. my 18 years of experience in the markets has taught me not to give up on a growth company when it is down and out because the potential upside that i have missed when the stock finally turns around is simply mind boggling
i bought CMG at $32 and sold at $135 only to watch it go up to $700 in less than 10 years
i left $7 million profit in BIDU on the table by selling it too soon instead of waiting an extra 3 years or so
i bought $FB at $32 sold it at $55, bought it again at $88 sold it at $ 117, in retrospect i should have simply left it alone
i am determined not to make the same mistake with TSLA. i will give it several more years before i sell unless something drastic occurs

 

[Intl Professor]

snip
i will give it several more years before i sell unless something drastic occurs

Wow. That's support!

 

[Krugerrand]

Whats wrong with 'crap'?

Crap is a natural thing, most ppl deliver crap a once a day. A day without a good crap is not a good day.;-) and When you become a parent you get used to a whole new level of crap, every kind there is.;-) crap is a necessary part of life.:-D

Nothing wrong with crap or *sugar*. I was just going with the flow of moderation. If *sugar* isn't allowed, then why is crap allowed? Means the same thing. As a matter of fact so does poo, excrement, dung, manure..., but those are all allowed. I say let's be consistent across the board and make them all *sugar* - at least in the Short Term.

Oh and Zhelko, thanks so much for extending me that courtesy of maturity for an entire week. Very big of you.

 

[dha]

TSLA 6 weeks down in a row means next week has a high probability of being positive

Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[brian45011]

Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Try playing the Fibonacci sequence on a 2 X odds bet on a roulette table and you won't need a second lesson to internalize the fallacy.

 

[trentxintong]

Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Sure. but if enough # of ppl believe the gambler fallacy, they may buy in to take a short term profit and drive the stock higher =)

 

[MikeC]

Gambler's fallacy doesn't strictly apply here because the price action each week is not a discrete, independent event. It's not like roulette where one spin has zero bearing on the results of the next spin. The lower the share price is, the less likely it is to go lower. We just don't know how much less likely.

 

[BobSk]

Elon has big plans regarding clean energy and transportation. Those long term investors should know this from long time ago. The master plan 2 explained it again: Solar + energy storage + autonomous EV for the entire world. That's the main goal, along the way, Tesla will become a trillion dollar company, which is a nice side effect. SolarCity is a major piece in the whole plan. I support Elon, let him do what he thinks it's right.

There is significant synergy in this merger. Currently SolarCity has a customer acquisition cost, which is more than the cost of panels. It's strange but there is no easy way around it. The whole industry operate like that. If SolarCity stops paying for those sales leads, those probably would go to competitors who are willing to pay. Tesla has a differently sales model, great products, good price, customers just come to buy. All the service centers and SuperCharger stations can also act as sales/ads centers. Once the sales cost is reduced, Tesla will have a great system yet cheaper than everyone else.

The Buffalo manufacturing site is coming online very soon. The highly automated production lines initially can produce 10,000 high efficiency panels per day, then could expand to 50,000 per day.

One more thing, almost all those news media which used to bash Tesla, now saying the merger is a bad idea. I don't think they suddenly changed their heart, started to love and care about Tesla. They don't want this merger to happen for their own purpose. If the shorts really think the merger will hurt Tesla, what articles would they post? They would write all kinds of articles to support the merger.

That's a quick summary of my view. I own both shares, mostly Tesla. I will vote yes on both sides.

 

[trentxintong]

Elon has big plans regarding clean energy and transportation. Those long term investors should know this from long time ago. The master plan 2 explained it again: Solar + energy storage + autonomous EV for the entire world. That's the main goal, along the way, Tesla will become a trillion dollar company, which is a nice side effect. SolarCity is a major piece in the whole plan. I support Elon, let him do what he thinks it's right.

There is significant synergy in this merger. Currently SolarCity has a customer acquisition cost, which is more than the cost of panels. It's strange but there is no easy way around it. The whole industry operate like that. If SolarCity stops paying for those sales leads, those probably would go to competitors who are willing to pay. Tesla has a differently sales model, great products, good price, customers just come to buy. All the service centers and SuperCharger stations can also act as sales/ads centers. Once the sales cost is reduced, Tesla will have a great system yet cheaper than everyone else.

The Buffalo manufacturing site is coming online very soon. The highly automated production lines initially can produce 10,000 high efficiency panels per day, then could expand to 50,000 per day.

One more thing, almost all those news media which used to bash Tesla, now saying the merger is a bad idea. I don't think they suddenly changed their heart, started to love and care about Tesla. They don't want this merger to happen for their own purpose. If the shorts really think the merger will hurt Tesla, what articles would they post? They would write all kinds of articles to support the merger.

That's a quick summary of my view. I own both shares, mostly Tesla. I will vote yes on both sides.

Well said, except I do not think customer acquisition cost is lower than panel cost I think. Similarly I own a lot of TSLA and some SCTY and will YES for both. I do not want to be a micro-manager. I believe in Elon and want to give the man total freedom till something horrible happens.

 

[3Victoria]

All I know is that EM's analysis is several steps ahead of me. He has done exceptionally well so far. I had assumed any EV project would die in infancy due to others interests.

 

[Big Dog]

If SolarCity stops paying for those sales leads, those probably would go to competitors who are willing to pay. Tesla has a differently sales model, great products, good price, customers just come to buy. All the service centers and SuperCharger stations can also act as sales/ads centers. Once the sales cost is reduced...

Ok, I'll bite. I see the supposed* advantage for Solar City ("free/low" cost storefronts), but what's in it for the car side of the transaction?

Full disclosure, *I see no synergy whatsoever, and recently sold my TLSA at a loss. Still patiently awaiting my M3 number to come up, however.

 

[BobSk]

Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

True, if you throw coins, the next throw is always 50/50, regardless how many heads in a row before it.

But stock market operates differently. That's because stocks generally don't go straight down to zero or to the moon. There is an intrinsic value, the stock fluctuate around the intrinsic value.

I know it's not easy to find the true intrinsic value for a high growth stock. Also it's not easy to predict how big will be the amplitude of a particular swing. The possibility for swing back goes up if a stock is significantly away from it's intrinsic value.

 

[3Victoria]

Well the benefit is to Tesla (the energy company), but indirectly:
- Gigafactory will eventually have solar on its roof, the new SC solar factory can supply these.
- Many Superchargers are meant to use solar eventually.
- Car purchasers will be able to buy solar as a complete package.

All of these could be done with a partnership, but combining allows savings.

 

[Intl Professor]

If *sugar* isn't allowed, then why is crap allowed?

Couldn't agree more. It's purely subjective, I let it go because I have a potty mouth in private conversation and even in lectures, to my everlasting shame in one case over 40 years. Unfortunately, to paraphrase Clark Gable, "Frankly my dear Krugerrand, I don't give a crap."

 

[vgrinshpun]

Ok, I'll bite. I see the supposed* advantage for Solar City ("free/low" cost storefronts), but what's in it for the car side of the transaction?

Full disclosure, *I see no synergy whatsoever, and recently sold my TLSA at a loss. Still patiently awaiting my M3 number to come up, however.

Tesla and SolarCity synergy is in the ability to develop highly optimized battery storage/solar products, which will provide for competitive advantage over the competitors for both sides of the combined business.

This will drive highly profitable TE sales. It is envisioned that in time 100% of solar sales will be paired with battery storage.

 

[3Victoria]

'crap' has alternate meanings, such as: "something of extremely poor quality."

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think that problem is not with 'crap', but with its quantity. My suggestion is to allow for certain quota of 'crap' per member per post(s), auotocorrecting after said quote is exceeded.

Limited quantities of 'crap' have potential to add much needed *color* to member postings.