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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Zuk said clearly 'be warned, we don't care about money'.
Elon didn't say this.

If you're not making money that just means you're not creating value or giving value away for free. Both companies simply said they're not here just to make investors rich, there's a more important goal. I struggle to find any difference.
 
"The EPA has finished their number crunching and the Bolt EV will carry a range estimate of 238 miles on the window sticker."

EPA Officially Estimates 2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV Driving Range At 238 Miles

Well, this is bad news, but also good news. No way Mr. Musk is going to let any Model 3s out the door with less mileage potential than the competition. If GM can do it, Tesla can do it better. We all win.

Exciting times ahead. Patience.
 
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"The EPA has finished their number crunching and the Bolt EV will carry a range estimate of 238 miles on the window sticker."

EPA Officially Estimates 2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV Driving Range At 238 Miles

Well, this is bad news, but also good news. No way Mr. Musk is going to let any Model 3s out the door with less mileage potential than the competition. If GM can do it, Tesla can do it better. We all win.

Exciting times ahead. Patience.

I think Tesla must be able to compete with other car manufacturers. I do not like winning because no competitors.

I will hold my TSLA long term for 5 - 20 years, possibly getting more if market crashes. I believe in the execution team and Elon Musk.

Eventually Tesla needs to build business moat which is harder to be replicated by other automakers. My hope lies in manufacturing.

But congrats GM!
 
There's a reason Tesla gave away its patents. The more electic vehicles other companies make the better it is for Tesla. Once the tide turns from ICEs to electric there will be a tsunami of profits for anyone with compelling offerings, and Tesla will be among them. There's currently 2B cars on the road that will need to be replaced - at 30k each that's $60,000,000,000,000 in sales. I hope Chevy starts selling large quatities of Bolts as soon as possible.
 
There's a reason Tesla gave away its patents. The more electic vehicles other companies make the better it is for Tesla. Once the tide turns from ICEs to electric there will be a tsunami of profits for anyone with compelling offerings, and Tesla will be among them. There's currently 2B cars on the road that will need to be replaced - at 30k each that's $60,000,000,000,000 in sales. I hope Chevy starts selling large quatities of Bolts as soon as possible.

I totally agree. However, I'd sure like to know how GM, without having the advantage of economy of scale (in regards to battery production and cost), can be putting this capacity of battery packs in their cars, and price them in the range that they have announced.

I smell a rat.
 
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Fairly soon the EV market will be constrained by battery supply, so Tesla will win by default even if they didn't have the best vehicles.

yes. and pretty soon, there will no longer be an EV market... just a single vehicle market approaching 100 million units per year, the most desirable units of which will the first 1-2% to be snatched up each year (the annual supply of long range EVs circa 2020).
 
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I totally agree. However, I'd sure like to know how GM, without having the advantage of economy of scale (in regards to battery production and cost), can be putting this capacity of battery packs in their cars, and price them in the range that they have announced.

I smell a rat.

I think the gross margin for Bolt will probably be lower than M3. Achieving a high gross margin is very important to the market value of an automaker. Look at Toyota vs GM/Ford. Toyota has the best manufacturing capability, thats why I think Tesla manufacturing effort is now largely undervalued.
 
I totally agree. However, I'd sure like to know how GM, without having the advantage of economy of scale (in regards to battery production and cost), can be putting this capacity of battery packs in their cars, and price them in the range that they have announced.

I smell a rat.

neither GM or LG has to make a profit. they will at most produce 30,000 Bolts/year for the next couple of years. they can well afford to sell that low a volume at a loss per vehicle, and it helps with regulatory requirements for their total fleet. this range announcement is good for them... with that attractive range, it looks like they wont actually have to endure the hit to reputation of being unable to sell 30,000 of these Model 3 killers while Tesla sells 15x to 30x as many Model 3 per year.
 
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I vote for I3.

Me too.

I do not think that Bolt looks ugly. To me it looks like a tall subcompact wagon designed to maximize interior space. The i3, on another hand is pretentious weird mobile.

As far as the range goes, Model 3 will probably have 55kWh battery pack, 215 miles range in a single motor variant and will match Bolt range in dual motor variant while matching Bolt price.

Bolt will be a bargain as GM will have to discount them heavily. I am thinking $5 to $10K off. I doubt anybody will buy Bolt over a dual motor Model 3 if they cost the same, with Model 3 having vastly superior specs. If Bolt will cost $20K - $25K after the rebate, it will be a very compelling offering. The problem is that at this price point it will likely be a big money looser for GM.
 
I totally agree. However, I'd sure like to know how GM, without having the advantage of economy of scale (in regards to battery production and cost), can be putting this capacity of battery packs in their cars, and price them in the range that they have announced.

I smell a rat.

GM is probably just hoping to break even and bank the ZEV credits. Bolt is still a compliance car aiming for 30k yearly volume and offered mostly in compliance states.
 
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