Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[schonelucht]

Fast being relative. And only if you want to drive in The Netherlands.

By the time the new Ampera is on the European market, Fastned will be at 150kW and expanding elsewhere in Europe.

 

[davecolene0606]

For those of you wondering about production rates. We got and email last Thursday (08, Sept @ 0454) "We have started building your Tesla". On Saturday, 10, Sept @ 0922, "Your Tesla is complete". Delivery expected 20, Sept.

This is by far, the fastest by a huge margin that we have ever had to wait! (Ordered 31, August)

Fire Away!

 

[davecolene0606]

By the time the new Ampera is on the European market, Fastned will be at 150kW and expanding elsewhere in Europe.

So, wonder if we will be seeing an adapter for that? That has been the track record so far.

Fire Away!

Oops, answered my own question we already have one.

 

[RobStark]

By the time the new Ampera is on the European market, Fastned will be at 150kW and expanding elsewhere in Europe.

By the time Ampera is on the European market CCS will not have their *sugar* together for 150 kW.

And Fastned will expand to select European markets.

CEO of Fastned has said he will consider London but not the rest of the UK.

BTW 50 kW CCS is not standard on Bolt EV.

 

[davecolene0606]

Fastned

50 kWh CHAdeMo and CCS.

BTW

If GM really wanted a Model 3 killer they would make a BEV Cadillac ATS with 238 miles of EPA Range for an MSRP of $37,500 with standard DC fast charging.

And get together with the other Detroit and European car makers on building a 150 kWh CCS Network in North America,Europe and China.

So, in other words.... FAT CHANCE

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Until they (the non-Teslas) get a fast charging network installed (did they mention the max kW the car could handle under charge?) then their market will be limited to "local" drivers.

As a Model S owner I spent the first two years scouring Plugshare, Chargepoint, etc. looking for chargers, plotting out routes and it was fun for a while. Now, with the Supercharger Network extended in to my area I don't even think about it - I just get in and go. When the Supercharger network reached me it completely transformed the EV ownership experience for me.

The Supercharger Network Tesla has installed to date (by itself) is nothing short of amazing and the key to widespread adaptation of EVs.

 

[mrdoubleb]

So, while giving them the benefit of the doubt, I'd like to see the official EPA rating on that Bolt... With those aerodynamics, they would probably need a 60+ pack in that thing. There is no way they are not losing money on that car if the values are true.

Having said that, Tesla would be able to match that, I have no doubts. The question is, other than bragging rights for the longest range entry model, will they want to given the Bolt's production limit?

 

[PaulRocket]

So, while giving them the benefit of the doubt, I'd like to see the official EPA rating on that Bolt... With those aerodynamics, they would probably need a 60+ pack in that thing. There is no way they are not losing money on that car if the values are true.

Having said that, Tesla would be able to match that, I have no doubts. The question is, other than bragging rights for the longest range entry model, will they want to given the Bolt's production limit?

As I've stated before, they will loose $5,000 per vehicle. I know this from employees.

 

[schonelucht]

By the time Ampera is on the European market CCS will not have their *sugar* together for 150 kW.

I think it will, but the Ampera-e might not allow more than 50kWh.

And Fastned will expand to select European markets.

Well, they are in a funding crunch but the plan has always been to expand Europe wide. But Fastned is not the only one moving in this space. There is GO fast in Switzerland, there are the highway corridors in Germany (in which Fastned is participating too), there is a Clever from Denmark, Ecocitry in the UK, etc. The actual providers of the charging hardware itself like ABB and ilk are also itching to expand because they see it as a real growth market, so the technical solutions will be there. It's the car that's been missing right now.

 

[RobStark]

I think it will, but the Ampera-e might not allow more than 50kWh.

1) Doubt it. Getting all CCS participants to agree is like herding cats.

2) Might? Of course Ampera-e will not allow more than 50 kWh. It is part of the chicken and egg problem that Tesla and only Tesla is determined to solve.

Well, they are in a funding crunch but the plan has always been to expand Europe wide. But Fastned is not the only one moving in this space. There is GO fast in Switzerland, there are the highway corridors in Germany (in which Fastned is participating too), there is a Clever from Denmark, Ecocitry in the UK, etc. The actual providers of the charging hardware itself like ABB and ilk are also itching to expand because they see it as a real growth market, so the technical solutions will be there. It's the car that's been missing right now.

In other words a hodge podge of actors that will leave crucial holes in a European network because there are no mass produced CCS cars much less CCS cars capable of 150 kWh charging.

By the time the Ampera-e hits European shores a Scottish Tesla owner will be able to drive from Edinburgh to London-Paris-Berlin-Oslo-Moscow-Athens-Vienna-Rome-Madrid-Lisbon and back to Edinburgh all on the Supercharger network.

 

[Matias]

European price of the new Ampera may give us insight on wether they are making a loss. Worldwide demand should not be a problem, a new Ampera doing 350km+ for less than 35k EUR should sell 10 000 units in the Netherlands alone. There is already a fast charging network in place that provides better coverage than Tesla (by far) too.

VAT in Holland is 21%, right? So VAT price in Holland with price of 37000 dollars should be 40k euros right?

Edit: just found out, that GM now says that price is 35k USD, so with VAT it is 37733 euros in Holland?

 

[mostapasta]

Every Bolt sold in CA will bring in 4 ZEV credits, which is worth about $16k in total.

Every EV sold in 1 of the 10 ZEV states with a ~200 mile EPA range (>350 mile UDDS cycle range) will qualify for 4 pre-travel ZEV credits through the end of their 2017 model year. Pulling financials from Tesla's SEC fillings, pre-travel ZEV credits are being sold for ~$3,500 a piece. After the 2017 model year, EVs no longer qualify for the travel provision and will only generate post-travel credits in the ZEV state which they are sold. 1 pre-travel ZEV credit equals roughly 3 post-travel ZEV credits, but it depends on each OEM's state sales distribution. I except there to be significant variability in post-travel ZEV credit costs throughout the ZEV states after the travel provision goes away for EVs.

 

[vgrinshpun]

As I've stated before, they will loose $5,000 per vehicle. I know this from employees.

Scratch $5K loss - apparently they felt the heat and dropped the price from $37.5K to $35K. So the list price loss will be $7.5K per unit.

In reality, they will need to discount Bolt further, I am thinking at least additional $5K to move planned 30K units per year. There is *no way* this subcompact sells in any reasonable quantity unless it is at least $5K cheaper than Model 3.

If Bolt sells at $30K, $22.5K after the federal rebate, it will be quite compelling city EV. I think they can sell quite a few of them at this price point.

GM says Bolt EV will have 238 miles range, besting Tesla Model 3

 

[Hogfighter]

I'm very surprised that the news regarding Apple's lack of EV product didn't do more for TSLA. There truly is no competition on the horizon, 4 years after initial production of Model S. I've been more worried about Apple, Google, etc. as competitors over OEMs, and it looks increasingly like those companies don't have the goods to compete in the near-to-medium future.

The Bolt is no more of a competitor to Tesla than a Chevy Spark is to a BMW 325i. Different worlds.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Scratch $5K loss - apparently they felt the heat and dropped the price from $37.5K to $35K. So the list price loss will be $7.5K per unit.

In reality, they will need to discount Bolt further, I am thinking at least additional $5K to move planned 30K units per year. There is no way this subcompact sells in any reasonable quantity unless it is at least $5K cheaper than Model 3.

GM says Bolt EV will have 238 miles range, besting Tesla Model 3

Wish them success but am still waiting to see what the car comes with. What options will need to be added. For instance look at volt. If you want any sort of options like ACC (not available yet at highway speeds) you need to get premier trim, same is true for car based navigation, confidence 1 and 2 packages (lane departure warning parking assistance and collision avoidance) your MSRP at 40K up from LT trim at 33K. Not hearing anything about auto pilot. Tesla you can upgrade on X/S for 3K at anytime. History on cutting silly things on volt too. They cut out Homelink option to save money on 40K car. Also look at Chevy ads, do you see any advertising volt? See there gas cars but not volts

 

[Irishjugg]

Tell me high speed traders have nothing to do with this. With their capability to front or back load stocks so rapidly, Tsla is a perfect stock in our really uncertain macro environment and as a disrupter building out so much of its own infrastructure which confuses those who have only the traditional "metric"—e.g., loses divided by number of cars produced.

Ok, I will tell you. That isn't how those algorithms work, you actually stuffing the book it otherwise manipulating prices in that way is both highly illegal and closely watched for. Every HFT is required to have a compliance team that is required to report anything that even looks like the situation you are describing to regulators daily.

 

[150 kWh]

Wish them success but am still waiting to see what the car comes with. What options will need to be added. For instance look at volt. If you want any sort of options like ACC (not available yet at highway speeds) you need to get premier trim, same is true for car based navigation, confidence 1 and 2 packages (lane departure warning parking assistance and collision avoidance) your MSRP at 40K up from LT trim at 33K. Not hearing anything about auto pilot. Tesla you can upgrade on X/S for 3K at anytime. History on cutting silly things on volt too. They cut out Homelink option to save money on 40K car. Also look at Chevy ads, do you see any advertising volt? See there gas cars but not volts

Let's not forget that it takes combined effort of two companies (GM + LG / both 50+ years old) to make one electric car. That's not good sign for profit margins.

LG supplies:

• Battery Cells and Pack
• Electric Drive Motor (built from GM design)
• Power Inverter Module (converts DC power to AC for the drive unit)
• Onboard Charger
• Electric Climate Control System Compressor
• High Power Distribution Module (manages the flow of high voltage to various components)
• Battery Heater
• Accessory Power Module (maintains low-voltage power delivery to accessories)
• Power Line Communication Module (manages communication between vehicle and a DC charging station)
• Instrument Cluster
• Infotainment System

 

[Intl Professor]

Ok, I will tell you. That isn't how those algorithms work, you actually stuffing the book it otherwise manipulating prices in that way is both highly illegal and closely watched for. Every HFT is required to have a compliance team that is required to report anything that even looks like the situation you are describing to regulators daily.

Thanks for the heads up. I'm expert at amateur. I hope you are right. My info and prejudice was formed much earlier based on article and later book by Michael Lewis based on findings a Canadian banker discovered. A quick review by Google came up with this:

The real problem with high-frequency trading

That summary says nothing about illegal activity. In fact, the Canadian (sorry for no reference, been a while since the Lewis article) set up a brokerage system to protect against what you say is illegal activity, but it has not been widely used or "anointed" by the regulatory agencies. That I find somewhat suspicious as we surely have a lot of regulatory capture here. The days of Joe Kennedy as the first SEC chair are long gone.

 

[vgrinshpun]

First time in the last couple of weeks there is 0 shares available for shorting at Fidelity (9:29am), with interest steady at 10.5%.

It would be interesting to see how TSLA will fare in the down market (Nasdaq is down 0.79%)

 

[Irishjugg]

I find this rather extreme view.

And if Elon thinks similarly, he should have disclosed it, at least as strongly as Zuckerberg in his initial letter to investors.

In the letter Zuckberberg says that the company “was built to accomplish a social mission” and claims, “we don’t build services to make money; we make money to build better services.” And if you consider master plan as clear as Zuk's statement, you're much better in reading between the lines than I am.

Even after this disclaimer, Zuckerberg has shown a lot more respect for playing expectations game than Elon. Yes, it's a game, but being public company means playing in that sandbox.

Before you feel compelled to criticize me, remember that I'm 100% in TSLA, reservation 3 holder, and currently negotiating to try and trade my older Porsche on classic P90D (for Q3). I am NOT an enemy here. If I'm not devoted enough, so be it.

I couldn't care less if you were long or short or bearish or bullish and personally consider that utterly useless. Who cares if someone had a different thesis. The amount of time certain members here spend throwing out accusations that someone is a short like it's a bad thing has happened disappointed me. I wish people would get over that. This isn't the TSLA stock bull fanclub, is a short term investment board. Many of us should be selling or even going short/buying puts on occasion and if you aren't then you have clearly left money on the table. Some people here disagree with the prevailing thesis. get over it. /Rant

Anyway, I suggest you spend more time listening to interviews for Elon, particularly over the last 3 years. He has directly started several times that if you are investing in Tesla for short term gains and are expecting the leadership to try to make sure the stock price continues to increase consistently that you should find a different company to invest in. He has been at least as direct about it and Zuck above, probably moreso. He's even come out and directly said they won't be making large efforts to make sure a good quarter happens if they are slightly behind because he couldn't care less on a quarter to quarter basis, he wants the long term growth to be in the right direction for doesn't care what week things fall on.

Tesla is only a public company begrudgingly, so the amount of effort that goes into various financial/stock price engineering is truly minimal. It gets the very smallest bucket of anything Elon spends time on, and is only ever even slightly acknowledged during times like right now where a great quarter is both possible to would be directly beneficial for a known upcoming raise.

I know you have stated before that you haven't been following as long as some here, so I'm sure you were just unaware of the interviews and he has a these things. Just wanted to let you know so you don't have confusion.