Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[sunhelm]

On this down day, keeping my eye on the prize till delivery numbers in October and Q3 earnings results in November. I've been perusing the September Model X delivery thread and lots of sample data of the them getting produced in just 2 days, most of these are for pick-up in Fremont. We've come a long way from the days of angst assembling the impossible car. It's gonna be huuuge!

 

[Gerasimental]

Does anybody have access to Bolt specs such as frontal area, mass, perhaps even Cd? Alternatively any educated guesses?

 

[Thumper]

Bolt partial preliminary configurator 2017 Bolt EV: All-Electric Vehicle | Chevrolet

Looks like some of theextra cost options will be:
Rear camera/surround vision
CCS DC fast charging
4GLTE
Safety package with Front pedestrian braking, Forward collision alert, Side blind spot alert and Rear cross traffic alert.

I see no reason why the Bolt will not sell well. It should meet many peoples needs and bring many more people to EV awareness. IMHO It does not threaten Tesla. It will help all EVs

 

[Matias]

that the absolute best a Bolt could do on 60kWh of battery is 227mi. At 65mph making those same assumptions, I get ~256mi. So somewhere around 67-68mph is the stated range at 238mi.
.

Do you know the exact size of Bolt's battery? Please remember, that at least Tesla has rounded is battery spec's.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Zuk said clearly 'be warned, we don't care about money'.
Elon didn't say this.

And yet, after couple of failures, Zuk learned to play game of managing expectations, which let investors of every vintage be taken for a relatively stable ride.

He made win feel like a win.

In TSLA, for a while now, only 2013-and-before investors feel like they're winning. And it's not like Tesla company is doing badly - company manages to do great things, and yet disappoints Street and gives ammunition to the bears. By constantly over-promising, apparently in order to manage SP.

Taking a loss once, coming clean, and setting up for series of beats would have been how most everyone expect this game to be played. Wall Street likes predictability. Being different isn't bad, but being different by failing to deliver on expectations?

Well, look at the results. Company is so much ahead from where it was 3 years ago, and SP is where it was 3 years ago... And there are many investors underwater.

Yes, actually Elon has said that repeatedly in multiple interviews over the last several years. ie., paraphrasing 'If I had thought money was the be and end all, I'd have bought an island and retired there rather than pouring every cent and then some into starting a rocket company and a car company, duh!'

There was even that little sentence in an ER report that clearly stated if you're expecting Tesla to care about shareholder money in the short term, you're investing in the wrong company.

I don't remember which quarter that ER was, but I clearly remember the writing that people looking for short term gains should invest elsewhere.

As an organization, Tesla is just not going to focus on how happy retail investors are with the share price. A lot of this is simply out of their control.

Now I agree that Tesla (and specifically Elon) has done a lousy job of managing Street expectations, but this has been the case since the Roadster days and even before. Are people really still surprised by this? People are perfectly justified in choosing a short term trading strategy, and wanting to invest in predictable companies, but TSLA is not a good stock for this strategy. I also do not blame anyone who exits TSLA because it no longer fits their strategy.

 

[dirtyofries]

Do you know the exact size of Bolt's battery? Please remember, that at least Tesla has rounded is battery spec's.

It's 60 kWh.

"Plus, the battery pack has an energy capacity of 60 kWh – which allows you to travel an EPA-estimated 238 miles of range on a full 3 EPA-charge EPA-estimated 238-mile EV range. Actual range varies with conditions."

From: 2017 Bolt EV: All-Electric Vehicle | Chevrolet

 

[esk8mw]

Bolt partial preliminary configurator 2017 Bolt EV: All-Electric Vehicle | Chevrolet

Looks like some of theextra cost options will be:
Rear camera/surround vision
CCS DC fast charging
4GLTE
Safety package with Front pedestrian braking, Forward collision alert, Side blind spot alert and Rear cross traffic alert.

I see no reason why the Bolt will not sell well. It should meet many peoples needs and bring many more people to EV awareness. IMHO It does not threaten Tesla. It will help all EVs

This is why looking at base price to compare cars is ridiculous. The Model 3 is likely to have all that as standard in the 35k price (yes, likely SC enabled for free, but charging will cost money, just like with the Bolt). The true test is to take the higher base-optioned car (sounds like it'll be the Tesla), then option up the lesser optioned car until it achieves approximate parity, and THEN compare price. I bet you get a lot more car for the money with Tesla. Looks like GM just wants to win the media headline game in its pricing.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Why would it start now when they haven't announced a vote date yet?

Because on Thursday after hours Tesla indicated that record date, subject to SEC review of the filings, will be during the week of September 19th. Since recall of lent shares allows institutions to assert their share ownership in order to vote, it need to be completed 3 days before the record date. Only entities that own TSLA shares 3 days before the record date are considered to be SH for the purposes of the vote and are allowed to vote on the acquisition.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Looks like TSLA might be bucking the trend. There are still 0 shares available to short at Fidelity.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Anything interesting about today's trading volume?

 

[Novice]

On this down day, keeping my eye on the prize till delivery numbers in October and Q3 earnings results in November. I've been perusing the September Model X delivery thread and lots of sample data of the them getting produced in just 2 days, most of these are for pick-up in Fremont. We've come a long way from the days of angst assembling the impossible car. It's gonna be huuuge!

May I ask what the prize would be ?

 

[FredTMC]

I think the Bolt having way more range than expected is definitely having an impact. 238mi range? That's super-optimistic for a vehicle with the Bolt's specs. Its interesting to me that the market seems to think that's so much better than Tesla's "at least 215mi and we hope more" spec for the 3. Yahoo finance posted an ugly article that proclaims its a huge problem for Tesla, since S60 is twice the price and has less range, and 3 is still a year away. Even goes so far as to say that GM is a big automaker that builds millions of cars a year while Tesla is struggling to make 80-90k this year, while completely neglecting to mention that GM can't build more than 50k Bolts period.

I showed a month ago with physics, and quoted myself yesterday, that @ 70mph, steady state, with no powertrain friction losses, no acceleration losses, no traffic, no cargo or passengers, and no HVAC, that the absolute best a Bolt could do on 60kWh of battery is 227mi. At 65mph making those same assumptions, I get ~256mi. So somewhere around 67-68mph is the stated range at 238mi.

Of course, in the real world, you have all of those things, and so the reality of the situation is that to get 238mi of actual real world range out of a Bolt, you'll need to go more like 50mph.

Any analyst that thinks Tesla will do anything other than release 3 with >240 mi range in the base model is insane. Don't forget, Bolt is built on inferior battery technology to Model 3. You really think Tesla is willing to be beaten on the range metric? They've been king of the range heap since the Roadster days.

Yeah, it's possible tesla bumps the "base model" range up for Model3.

But, the most important thing for public to understand that I haven't read anywhere is that Model3 has BATTERY SIZE OPTIONS (~215 miles is the smallest)

 

[esk8mw]

FYI, 85k shares to short at IB, but interest rate has ticked up to 11.5%.

 

[esk8mw]

Yeah, it's possible tesla bumps the "base model" range up for Model3.

But, the most important thing for public to understand that I haven't read anywhere is that Model3 has BATTERY SIZE OPTIONS (~215 miles is the smallest)

Yep, I think they will stick with the 215 and offer a much higher (like 275-325) option and then include that number in all promo materials. Up to 300 range! Or whatever.

 

[Novice]

Looks like TSLA might be bucking the trend. There is still 0 shares available to short at Fidelity.

View attachment 194319

Do you mean the SP has bottomed out ?
The chart looks interesting

 

[tander]

Because on Thursday after hours Tesla indicated that record date, subject to SEC review of the filings, will be during the week of September 19th. Since recall of lent shares allows institutions to assert their share ownership in order to vote, it need to be completed 3 days before the record date. Only entities that own TSLA shares 3 days before the record date are considered to be SH for the purposes of the vote and are allowed to vote on the acquisition.

Thanks, I didn't get the memo!

 

[schonelucht]

Yeah, it's possible tesla bumps the "base model" range up for Model3.

Model 3 design is final since late June and foundational decisions/components like battery size/configuration/layout long before that. Whatever the Model 3's range is going to be, it's going to be what it is. Unless Tesla re-opens the design phase.

 

[koolkool]

Dat rebound doe

 

[vgrinshpun]

Model 3 design is final since late June and foundational decisions/components like battery size/configuration/layout long before that. Whatever the Model 3's range is going to be, it's going to be what it is. Unless Tesla re-opens the design phase.

...or they found a way to squeeze more miles using more advanced drivetrain unit controls, in which case that would be software change, unaffected by the pencil down. Not saying that this will happen, but it is possible, and was done by Tesla before with Model S.

 

[Jayjs20]

The google stock ticker just broke. It's returning to the opening SP price for many different stock.

It's back to normal now.