Final assembly is mostly manual. Right? Is that why it is a limiting factor for quick ramp up?
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
IMO this article helps give some perspective on the possible synergies of the acquisition. I believe that his claim that there is very little additional cost to the solar roof vs the conventional roof isn't accurate:
Forward Solar shows how a SolarCity/Tesla roof could look better than a traditional roof while generating electricity
Forward Solar shows how a SolarCity/Tesla roof could look better than a traditional roof while generating electricity
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davecolene0606
Member
Well after reading that and the NHTSA doc and what I cold find on the phishing law suits. I'm applied for my 21% TSLA discount. Maybe an early holiday, eh?
Fire Away!
I know that you frequent the forums, as do I. So, as to #2 I have been firmly against the merger at this time in TM's history. SCTY has a small *worth* compared to TM but utilizes the same amount of cash. Unlike TM, which could choose to be profitable, SCTY, IMO, could not choose to do so and if not purchased by someone will be bankrupt or near bankrupt in 3-6 months.
As to #6: It is your opinion on both those accounts. Yes, the market can be irrational and may be wrong. However, since there are many people that make up the market a good number of them must believe that the merger is illogical and may end up being more of a headwind than a tailwind for TM, and thus TSLA.
Logic/illogic depends on one's frame of reference. What is logical to you is not *fact* and may be quite illogical to others.
****Personally though I do not like the merger I think it goes through. As an investor I am taking advantage of the arbitrage and have bought a good amount of SCTY.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I haven't read the document, but your comment gives me hope. When I look at the autonomous vehicle problem, I see a classic maturation problem. The defining characteristic of all maturity models, is that there are a series of stages that must be worked through sequentially. That there are things learned at a level 2 maturity level that must be done and experienced, in order to move on to level 3. And the same at 3, to move on to level 4.
We talk about crawl, walk, run as a throwaway idea of doing something easy / simple first, and then move on to the harder stuff. This is also a maturity model. It makes not sense to bemoan baby not walking, when crawling hasn't yet been mastered. Nor do we even consider the idea that baby will roll over and start walking - it's a nonsensical progression until some crawling has been done.
The people that want to start fully formed at level 4 autonomous driving, would be like parents that want baby to start moving around by training for the marathon (in my view). It might be theoretically possible, but I don't see the path between here and there that doesn't include the sort of incremental work that Tesla is doing.
So what you've seen in the document gives me hope. That the incremental approach to figuring this out is being supported in the framework documents.
This has also become an important component of my Tesla investment thesis. The only company that I see with a solid view of incremental learning to figure out this autonomous driving thing is Tesla. Not just incremental learning, but incremental learning by doing. Put real pieces of the technology into the world, where real people will use them in good and bad ways in real life.
larmor
Active Member
I think the market does not know the full value of SCTY due to presumed improvements in solar roof, are there agreements with new home builders? IF there was an advantage and scty had it, and it was public knowledge, someone would have all ready bought it. Solar is only a means for extracting free energy from the sun, and presumably (this is a big presumption) energy from the ground-oil, lng, coal are finite in quantitiy. Aslo, market does not know what deliveries of MX are, and hence revenue.
Why not buy SCTY after it went bankruptcy, clear off debt and reorganized with possibility of profitability?
Why now? TMC can barely make itself profitable, with a stunning task ahead
There are other solar companies to buy, some already bankrupted, gone with wind, why SCTY?
Definitely need third party appraisals; Too many conflict of interests in this deal, a very fishy one at the best
Why now? TMC can barely make itself profitable, with a stunning task ahead
There are other solar companies to buy, some already bankrupted, gone with wind, why SCTY?
Definitely need third party appraisals; Too many conflict of interests in this deal, a very fishy one at the best
Feel free to read any of the last 20 pages of this thread where every question you are "asking" were discussed in excruciating detail.
Well, wife and I bought 1320 lotto tickets of scty today. Removed the shares from the short sellers. Looking forward to the merger.
I've been musing about the discount being offered on the S75's and 75D's in inventory. It's basically 70% off the upgrade difference. However, the cars themselves are identical between a S75 and a S60, or 75D and a 60D, so the COGS is basically the same. If Tesla felt that the take rate for the upgrade to 75 kWh is about 25 or 30%, then the discount currently offered is basically pulling forward that upgrade revenue. Kinda cool, but the longer term issue is what happens when people are used to a discount. It can cause people to avoid buying until there is a discount. Right now, almost all of the 181 inventory cars available in the U.S. are S75's or 75D's - so this was for maybe 300 or so vehicles. Another side effect is that by building a slew of these vehicles earlier and then they are already on location at the galleries and service centers, the chaos of the delivery rush for coordinating custom deliveries of discounted vehicles is a bit mitigated for this end of quarter. Arranging a lot of transportation all stacked up has been tough. It will be interesting to see the sell through on these.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Tesla is marketing Powerpacks to farmers in Australia:
Tesla pitches the Powerpack to farmers in Australia
Tesla pitches the Powerpack to farmers in Australia
Agreed from our perspective. However, the stock takes a big hit from "the market" after failing to meet these unreal metrics (i.e., Tesla's Q4 earnings and revenue estimates). A cynical conclusion is that most of the analysts are working for short sellers.
racer26
Active Member
I imagine minimal -- I would think the residual would still be the same as a non-discounted 75.
racer26
Active Member
The short answers:
TSLA is one of the most profitable automakers in the industry. They're making between 20-30% margin in an industry with an average margin around 10%. They're just plowing an even bigger pile of cash into hyper-speed growth, and so at the end of the day they're spending more than they're making.
The others don't have the Silevo technology and the Buffalo factory.
There WERE third party appraisals. The most egregious conflicts of interest were the cross-pollination of the boards of TSLA and SCTY, but all the dual board members (like Elon and JB) recused themselves from the decision making process, and the remaining non-conflicted members of both companies boards decided independently that the merger was a good idea for their company.
Because of the Buffalo factory provided by the State of New York on a really sweetheart deal of $1/year lease. The deal was extended to SCTY. If you wait until SCTY goes bankrupt, and buy it then, the State of New York will likely take their factory back.
TSLA is one of the most profitable automakers in the industry. They're making between 20-30% margin in an industry with an average margin around 10%. They're just plowing an even bigger pile of cash into hyper-speed growth, and so at the end of the day they're spending more than they're making.
The others don't have the Silevo technology and the Buffalo factory.
There WERE third party appraisals. The most egregious conflicts of interest were the cross-pollination of the boards of TSLA and SCTY, but all the dual board members (like Elon and JB) recused themselves from the decision making process, and the remaining non-conflicted members of both companies boards decided independently that the merger was a good idea for their company.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I don't think improved safety will help the SP in the ST. Are there any other enhancements that might?:
Tesla V8.0 Autopilot aimed for worldwide roll out on Wednesday, Sep. 21
Tesla V8.0 Autopilot aimed for worldwide roll out on Wednesday, Sep. 21
racer26
Active Member
I mostly agree, but I think that might change as people start driving with it and realize the real-world implications of the whole "see in front of the vehicle in front" trick.
Its one of those things that's so far removed from the way most people drive that it's hard to grasp how earth-shattering of a change it is.
I predict we're going to start seeing frequent reports of people blown away by how their Tesla saw the rear end collision happening in front of them and stopped safely, thereby preventing a pile-up.
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I think the most important part is that Obama established Federal guidelines for AutoPiilot. In other words, Tesla won't need to adjust Autopilot for every state, and wait/fight for state approval before making any changes.
larmor
Active Member
Release of regulations prior to V8 also gives credence to development of AP tech, instead of just a silicon valley company trying to break molds...
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