Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[BornToFly]

Certainly we all have a choice with the information we want to have and people we wish to 'ignore'.
Personally, I don't use the ignore button. I want to hear and/or engage with respectful people that challenge my point of view.
The person you are ignoring, while I usually do not agree with his assertions I do give him credit for putting his views forward respectfully in a forum devoted to TM/EM.

It takes a lot for me to put someone on my ignore list. As an investor with a large part of my net worth in Tesla, I want to make sure I am aware of every possible bear thesis. But when the bear arguements become disproved FUD that keeps getting repeated by the same person, seeing more of their posts just becomes a waste of my time. Myusername is getting close to making the cutoff now....

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Someone once made this observation that might still stand true. Elon changing his Twitter picture is usually a sign that good news is on the horizon.

 

[techmaven]

In fact, GM has been doing the opposite. GM has been reducing fleet sales and reducing fleet sales to rental car companies the fastest. Rental Car sales usually have less than 1% profit.

GM makes over 70% of its profits on full size pickup trucks and full size pickup truck based SUVs.

Tesla is putting a hurt on Germany's Big Three first.

Once Tesla has their full sized pickup,and my guess a Suburban/Escalade killer too, then Tesla will put a big hurt on the Detroit Big Three.

Did GM Maintain the Right Balance between Retail and Fleet Sales in August? - Market Realist

"But notably, earlier this year, GM guided that it would maintain its fleet sales below 20% of its total vehicle sales. In August, its fleet sales were just 17% of its total vehicle sales, and the company reported a YoY (year-over-year) decline of 34% in its rental car sales.

Unlike Ford (F), GM has been cutting its fleet sales to rental car companies for the last several quarters in order to protect its margins and to utilize plant capacity to manufacture more profitable vehicles for retail customers."

You're right on the declining rate recently, but 17% is still going into very low margin fleet sales. That's a big amount.

 

[Dwdnjck]

My only concern with the numbers is, like @MitchJi , I thought we might see more of a 50:50 mix of S:X instead of S outdelivering X 2:1.

Otherwise: Nicely done TM!

I am very happy to see more S than X because I believe X still has a lot more room to grow. Numbers show that S is not declining. If tesla can ramp up X production to meet S production, it will finish off the year easily.

 

[generalenthu]

Do we have a confirmation on October first week shutdown of production. If not for that, the production goals seem relatively easy to hit.

 

[LST]

To be fair, we have to look at it from the perspective of the average human or a human within a standard deviation of average in terms of risk tolerance.

In a typical human, fear of loss is felt 2x than happiness from gain. Investing in GM, which is likely to preserve capital, at the expense of rapid growth, is more palatable than investing in Tesla, which has the chance of being a huge success, but also the higher chance of going to 0.

I've long argued that the average person should not invest any money in TSLA. Most people simply cannot stomach the swings in share price, or tolerate the uncertainty. They will lose sleep. They will lose their lunch. They will buy high and sell low. Most people should invest in index-based mutual funds and leave it at that.

you are so right

amen bro

but

those who can stomach and see the implications , will win big ultimately

 

[BornToFly]

For the SP, I really wish they had waited until tomorrow morning to release the numbers. I do think the FUDsters will do maximum spin today and it will damped the SP bump.

 

[sub]

Happy with the results, glad I upped my stake in TSLA this past week.

As far as ignoring the bears/shorts, I give them plenty of rope to hang themselves with when they show up here. If all they have to share is the same nonsense we have been hearing for years and they don't change their tune after a few back and forths they get the ignore button. Myusername made my list fairly quickly but I still have to suffer through others responding to his drivel.

I'm concerned for those here that think they need to listen to these clowns in order to "see all sides". Good luck with that.

 

[myusername]

Certainly we all have a choice with the information we want to have and people we wish to 'ignore'.
Personally, I don't use the ignore button. I want to hear and/or engage with respectful people that challenge my point of view.
The person you are ignoring, while I usually do not agree with his assertions I do give him credit for putting his views forward respectfully in a forum devoted to TM/EM.

thank you very much. and to summarize my recent posts during what is very positive news for Tesla... I still do not think this changes the long term short thesis. If Tesla's goal was to simply become a large luxury auto company... AND TSLA valuation reflected this... then yes... I'd be just as Long as the rest of you... but I see TSLA valuation as highly ambitious... and demanding success in M3 that exceed the entirety of BMW... and that would be achieved by matching BMW + accelerating Tesla Energy.

To me... successfully meeting annual guidance while still under the umbrella of significant tax incentives... this does not scream low risk to those above ambitions.

 

[Ingenieur]

So what is your Estimate for GAAP ?
Mine is ca. 200 Mio loss (assuming 30 Mio ZEV sales), 4500 direct leases (Tesla guided for 15% or ca. 3800 but i think its more like 18%).
ASP of just 100k$ due to tons of S60 and Discounts and 18% Gross margin.

Also SGAA/R&D being 550 Mio (40 Mio higher)

 

[anticitizen13.7]

To me... successfully meeting annual guidance while still under the umbrella of significant tax incentives... this does not scream low risk to those above ambitions.

I think what you may not be understanding is that many of us simply do not care that TSLA is high risk.

The money I invested is money I can afford to lose.

 

[Xpert]

I predict we reach $220 tomorrow at some point...$215 at the very least.
24.5K deliveries AND 80K for the year is huge, no matter how the shorts try to spin it. It will certainly trigger a trend reversal and we'll only claim up next couple of weeks.

 

[SuryaDham]

For the SP, I really wish they had waited until tomorrow morning to release the numbers. I do think the FUDsters will do maximum spin today and it will damped the SP bump.

True. FUDsters will come out.
BUT at the same time some analysts will come out with upgrades as well, and their opinion might be worth more...so it might be net positive....watch out for analyst-upgrades early morning.

 

[myusername]

I think what you may not be understanding is that many of us simply do not care that TSLA is high risk.

The money I invested is money I can afford to lose.

now that I will agree with you on... I think Fidelity is thinking the same way.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I think what you may not be understanding is that many of us simply do not care that TSLA is high risk.

The money I invested is money I can afford to lose.

THIS ^

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

For the SP, I really wish they had waited until tomorrow morning to release the numbers. I do think the FUDsters will do maximum spin today and it will damped the SP bump.

I like it as it gives the analysts time to do their calculations and upgrade the stock.

 

[TMSE]

My only concern with the numbers is, like @MitchJi , I thought we might see more of a 50:50 mix of S:X instead of S outdelivering X 2:1.

Otherwise: Nicely done TM!

I see that as a positive growth ahead for X. Eventually, X should catch up to S. By this time next year, S and X should be selling at 20k/quarter each.

 

[winfield100]

For the SP, I really wish they had waited until tomorrow morning to release the numbers. I do think the FUDsters will do maximum spin today and it will damped the SP bump.

but Japan is 13 hours ahead.It's already 7:20am Monday there......

 

[geneclean55]

For the SP, I really wish they had waited until tomorrow morning to release the numbers. I do think the FUDsters will do maximum spin today and it will damped the SP bump.

I would usually agree. But i am thinking at at least it gives time for main media outlets to release the ' tesla record breaking quarter ' headlines

 

[neroden]

http://wp.me/p3P83g-7pH

Interesting. 5000 - 5500 in transit seems like it's going to be the standard going forward. It's been about the same number in transit each time they report for a while now, right?