Chartered321
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We all know this is the way Goldman buys stocks for itself right?
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GS was pissed off about SCTY too... and they made an open statement about what they believed as missing details during the last cap raise. GS dumped 50% of their position in Q2. they are probably now 100% out.
bdy0627
Active Member
In light of GS announcement that they expect a rather substantial GAAP profit for the 3Q in spite of this downgrade, it seems to me that they are removing some of the positive effect of such a profit on the SP. That is no longer a beat of expectations but rather a meet. In reality, did the analysts previously expect a profit at this point? I didn't think they did. If not, it actually is a beat but expectations are being redesigned now that it is looking likely that Q3 will be a profitable quarter so that it is just expected. This should reduce or eliminate a positive market reaction to the Q3 ER. Why would they do this other than to manipulate the SP? Could someone that knows the GS history with Tesla briefly explain their investments in Tesla? I thought they were a big investor with the company that has an interest in seeing it take off. Is that correct? If so, then as Chartered just said, this would be a move designed to lower the SP only in the short term for more buying on the cheaper side for them/their investors? Apparently there is some friction between Musk and GS as well as MS but doesn't money always matter more, especially to financial institutions?? I'm a long term investor in TSLA but I think this analysis is important in determining whether to add shares for the short term. Do we need to revise our expectations about the SP for the next few months?
This is probably true. Now, that they are successfully out, it is perfect timing for the downgrade. May be also time for the 5 top owners to load up. Let's see if this signifies the bottom.
The fact that they are upset might mean that they DO feel like the cream (from the pie) is drying up on their face. So, mission is (almost) accomplished?
guys... this is an ugly week for TSLA... sorry for your losses... but it may be time to be mentally prepared for very significant declines from here. sounds all doom and gloomy... but there is a clearer path than ever back to $100 from here. I guess I'm writing this here since over the last few weeks I've interacted with way more people that I would have expected with 100% confidence... there's only one [short term] positive catalyst in the near future and it's a positive ER which was essentially just rejected this week... you should be prepared to lose 25% to 50% in the short term.
bdy0627
Active Member
From the GS release: "We now see incremental risk to the business related to management’s deployment
of capital for M&A, and further believe that any delay in the company’s timeline to launch its new Model 3 will be
detrimental to shares. However, with solid 3Q16 deliveries and the potential downward catalyst of a missed Model 3
launch timeline out in 2H17, we prefer to be Neutral on shares."
How have those risks worsened since GS' view in May when they were bullish on TSLA? It seems to me that nothing has changed other than the SCTY acquisition, right? So in effect, it seems they are really downgrading based upon SCTY but didn't the SP already react negatively in a big way to that news back during the summer? This "news' may affect the SCTY SP since buying SCTY is going to get you TSLA shares at .11. Investors may then ask, why would you want more TSLA shares if they are likely going to be falling? This sets up more uncertainty for investors considering adding shares of either company.
of capital for M&A, and further believe that any delay in the company’s timeline to launch its new Model 3 will be
detrimental to shares. However, with solid 3Q16 deliveries and the potential downward catalyst of a missed Model 3
launch timeline out in 2H17, we prefer to be Neutral on shares."
How have those risks worsened since GS' view in May when they were bullish on TSLA? It seems to me that nothing has changed other than the SCTY acquisition, right? So in effect, it seems they are really downgrading based upon SCTY but didn't the SP already react negatively in a big way to that news back during the summer? This "news' may affect the SCTY SP since buying SCTY is going to get you TSLA shares at .11. Investors may then ask, why would you want more TSLA shares if they are likely going to be falling? This sets up more uncertainty for investors considering adding shares of either company.
Looks like Tesla and GS ended their abusive marriage 
It may be painful in short-term but I somehow like it that GS won't be part of TSLA's future.
It may be painful in short-term but I somehow like it that GS won't be part of TSLA's future.
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wow man... this was a simple question... and you take it to "trolling"?... in basically the same sentence you have 10x and 5x... yeah... an oversight in my question... but it remained the same question regardless... just at 5%... damn.
Only Goldman Sachs can get away with upgrading its EPS expectations, downgrading its view about Tesla being able to meet its deadline for the Model 3, and reducing its near term price target by 23% in the same report.
This is basics Trumpian logic. You can't be wrong if you cover all bases and emphasize that your perspective might differ significantly from reality.
Time out. Since when is Trumpian a recognized term?
I hereby coin the phrase, assuming someone hasn't already done so.
"Trumpian logic is Kafkaesque" ©
This is basics Trumpian logic. You can't be wrong if you cover all bases and emphasize that your perspective might differ significantly from reality.
Time out. Since when is Trumpian a recognized term?
I hereby coin the phrase, assuming someone hasn't already done so.
"Trumpian logic is Kafkaesque" ©
I am not 100% sure what you are saying. If the point is that some possibility that Tesla will deliver Model 3 at the volumes and profits predicted is priced into the stock I would agree with you. But I believe that prospect is very heavily discounted by the market for the reasons stated in my earlier post.
And I totally agree that Tesla is not just a car company but I wanted to focus on the Model 3 because the claim I was addressing related specifically to the Model 3. I do believe the market is also significantly undervaluing TE, but that is a somewhat different issue.
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Interesting action in pre-market. The volume is less than I would expect for a significant downgrade, with a clear support at around $202 - $203.
I think that if we can stay today within the blue triangle (stay above $200), there is a fair chance of a bounce and a break-out. This downgrade feels very fishy. Let's see how successful GS are at scraping drying cream from their faces...
I think that if we can stay today within the blue triangle (stay above $200), there is a fair chance of a bounce and a break-out. This downgrade feels very fishy. Let's see how successful GS are at scraping drying cream from their faces...
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Goldman: We expect Tesla to show their first profit in years, therefore we are downgrading the stock.
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Timing too coincidental. They are either buying this or they have finished selling and are trying to get back at Musk.
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Timing too coincidental. They are either buying this or they have finished selling and are trying to get back at Musk.
in your chart you're giving a little bit of leeway on the top and bottom... it could be that 202 is touching the bottom trendline there and the current support is attempting to stop it from breaking down.
This is helpful, thanks. I think there is quite a bit of room for a much bigger 1H 2017 for TE depending on how quick production can ramp on cells and TE products -- looking forward to more info coming out on this. Interesting times.
I agree. Bizarre move -- especially the timing (did they just wake up from a nap and learn about the SCTY merger?). But if you can't beat 'em, join 'em.
Or even more sinister, they set a new expectation of 0.28 EPS. If this new bar is not met, that would then turn into a missed target.
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