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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I'm really trying to figure out what this announcement could be, but I just don't know. Most of the other surprise announcements, it's been possible to make a good educated guess, but this one is tough. He didn't give us much to go on. Some thoughts:

1. Model 3 part two: Probably not - he would have just said so.
Definitely not.
2. Tesla inverter, Powerwall v2, Powerpack v2, Tesla DC wall charger: Doesn't make sense to reveal them before the reveal on the 28th. Though, of these, I guess the Powerpack v2 would have least relevance to Solar City, so maaybe.
3. Autopilot v2: Maybe.
Somewhat likely. Top contender.
4. Solid snake supercharger: Maybe, but no reason to reveal it now, as it really only makes sense when combined with level 5 autonomy.
5. Model Y: Probably too soon, and I think there would be a bigger event.
They're too smart to do that (I hope).
6. Model 3 variant (hatchback/wagon): Could be Tesla's solution to the criticized trunk opening, so maybe.
7. Tesla Bus concept: Maybe.
8. Model X 5-seater: Timing fits, but not sure if it warrants a reveal. Probably my top contender.
9. 21-70-based pack for Model S/X: Maybe.
Definitely not.
10. CCS charging adapter: Maybe.
 
Autopilot 2.0 makes sense from another perspective: they need to really firmly move away from all of the criticism that they have been receiving recently. It seems (e.g. from recent Consumer Reports article) that software v8.0 was only partly successful in deflecting that criticism, so perhaps a new hardware upgrade could really help to draw a line under it.
 
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sorry if I'm late popcorn line was long.jpg
 
I have nothing that isn't a WAG. Maybe a coupe version of Model S or something else out of left field.

Separate announcement for integrated PW 2.0/charger would make sense because that could be of interest to all Tesla vehicle owners (even those who aren't interested in solar) but will probably just do this as part of the 10/28 event.

Seems unlikely to be any of the new vehicles that have been announced (Y, Pickup, Semi, Minibus).

AP 2.0 doesn't seem to fit the "unexpected by most" language. Everyone expects AP 2.0, only issue is timing.
 
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For example, if it TE signs agreement with a large utility, say Oncor of Texas for supply of 10GWh of BES througout the 2017 with upfront payment in return to heavily discounted price, say $350/kWh instead of the list price of $445/kWh, it can bring $3.5B in cash upfront, with $1.1B of this payment being gross profit, ensuring, as I speculated earlier profitability in 2017.

This is ridiculous. Tesla Energy has no value.
 
This wasnt what he said. Its not necessary, but if it is smart to speed up it will be done. Weigh pisitives vs negatives.

Elon said probably not necessary for Q1'17 either. With the Model 3 trial production deadline being July 2017, this indicates Tesla can self-finance almost all the expenses for Model 3 ramp up because a capital raise in Q2'17 seems too late for the ramp-up.
 
trying to make sense of the cap/debt tweet... it seems the board immediately jumped to "they need cash but will get it from other sources".

i'll use this link as reference as I'm too lazy this Sunday to go digging...

Tesla Has Big Need For Cash In Third Quarter

"If the two third-quarter payments are subtracted from the mid-year cash balance, Tesla would have $2.1 billion left over. The company on Wednesday told analysts it planned $1.75 million [typo: billion] in the second half of the year on capital expenditures."

which would leave them with about $400m short of sales revenues.

so the situation is one of:

1) they need cash but will get it from private or creative sources

2) they are not spending at the rate they anticipated

3) they needed cash but between q3/q4 sales have made up for it

i'm guessing it's either #1 or #2... if it's #2 that wouldn't bode well for the M3 timeline... correct?

but do these numbers/options make sense?
 
and this was filed with the SEC 2 days ago:

PRELIMINARY JOINT PROXY STATEMENT/PROSPECTUS

DATED OCTOBER 7, 2016, SUBJECT TO COMPLETION

"Tesla is currently planning to raise additional funds by the end of this year, including through potential equity or debt offerings, subject to market conditions and recognizing that Tesla cannot be certain that additional funds would be available to it on favorable terms or at all."

Tesla Motors - Registration Statement

this is very confusing
 
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