sundaymorning
Active Member
I get paid in 5 days. Can't wait to buy more. Honestly, I don't give an F what analysts have to say the next several days.
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"We achieved record production levels in Q3, rising to 25,185 vehicles for an increase of 37% from Q2 and an increase of 92% from Q3 last year."
AP and accrued liabilities increase from $1.673 billion to $2.301 billion, a 37.5% increase
The 10Q will have more detail, but total cost of revenues was only $1.662 billion so AP/AL was 138% of COGs.
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mmd
Active Member
Well, since the payables jumped quite a bit, there was quite some deferral as well
But I thank you for predicting the ZEV bonanza so accurately in this thread. That was quite an achievement, to dig it up for the rest of us.
I'm a bit puzzled by the big increase in share count from Q2 to Q3. Any explanation?
Q2 2016 letter, page 5: Shares used in per share calculation, basic and diluted 139,983K
Q3 2016 letter, page 6: Shares used in per share calculation Basic 148,991K Diluted 156,935K
There was no cap raise in Q3. What caused such increase? IIRC, annual dilution should be about 4% for stock based compensation. Is this big increase caused by repayment of the convertibles?
the 29.4% margin you are citing includes the impact of ZEV credits; 25% non-GAAP margins are the right number to think about, especially given they guided that ZEV revenue should be negligible in 4Q. Now I'm not saying 30% is impossible (particularly given Elon's comments about the significant demand for the P100D), but it would be a major increase from 25% to 30%.
just want to temper expectations based on what we know...
surfside
CapEX does not show up on an Income Statement. The relatively small increase in SG&A shows that potential of operating leverage. Oddly SG&A grew ~$43 million from Q1 to Q2 but only ~$16 million from Q2 to Q3. I suspect the employer's portion of Medicare taxes on Elon's Q2 option exercise distorted the Q2 numbers when doing comparisons in either direction. .
"Furthermore, we expect this to continue into Q4 and project positive GAAP net income (excluding non-cash stock-based compensation) despite ZEV credit sales in Q4 likely being negligible."
Pretty sure excluding SBC puts it into non-GAAP.
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I think whatever analyst upgrades there are in the next couple days will be tempered due to lack of visibility caused by pending SCTY acquisition. Elon tried to clear things up with his words (ie., saying that SCTY will possibly be cash neutral next year), but skeptical finance-oriented analysts/investors want more than Elon's words at this point.
Btw, amazing and fantastic quarter. However, no TSLA earnings will ever beat Q1 2013.
Edit: not in terms of actual profit but in terms of significance, as back then Tesla was at the brink.
Edit: not in terms of actual profit but in terms of significance, as back then Tesla was at the brink.
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On a gross basis, we now know Tesla has reported $204 million in ZEV credit revenue (profit) between 10/1/15 and 9/30/16 and CARB reported 80,227 credits transferred (sold) during the last fiscal year (10/1/15 to 8//31/16) or an average of $2,542 which is consistent with Elon's discussion of 50 cents on the dollar if you assume the dollar is $5,000 fine per insufficient credit.
It's possible credits sold in 4Q15 and 1Q16 were worth more than those sold in 3Q16, but the overall average shows those credits are still worth thousands rather hundreds of dollars. (I think Fallenone graciously, but subtly, acknowledged that up thread.)
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
everman
Member
Was it just me, or did Adam seem dejected? I expected a victory lap acknowledging Tesla Network. What gives?
The best Tesla quarters are yet to come. We will have consecutive quarters that every quarter brings in $10 Billion net earnings. Master plan 2 made it very clear. It will take a while though.Btw, amazing and fantastic quarter. However, no TSLA earnings will ever beat Q1 2013.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
He gets less than 10 likes per tweet and has around 1600 followers.
This guy is NOTHING. Don't feed the bears. Pay him no attention.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
AJ has been "sour grapes" for many quarters now. Basically ever since Elon refused to answer his ridesharing questions
sundaymorning
Active Member
Analysts got slapped in the face by Elon's $23 million. Enough said, mic drop...
alseTrick
Active Member
Assuming Tesla doesn't slash prices on inventory vehicles every quarter, why would Q4 be better than/equal to Q3?
I don't think so. 29.4% GAAP gross margin includes $139 million in ZEV credits. This probably won't be repeated in Q4. I think we're probably looking at something like 28-29% for Q4.
larmor
Active Member
Analysts' job is to research and provide insight and analysis that comes close to what actually happens. This research is used to make sense of data for investment and investors. Mic drop indicates analyst ball drop...
How the stock performs in coming days really depends on large buyers and large sellers. There doesn't seem to be a strong reason to sell here (let's say at $211 closing AH price today). But the question is will large institutions/funds step up to the plate and start buying TSLA aggressively. Or will they be hesitant and still scared away due to the SCTY acquisition. If there was no acquisition, then I can see strong buying and a big run. But as it is, it's unclear to me. Large funds might want to wait until Elon shares more on Friday and next week about the SCTY acquisition. Or even some large funds might want to wait to see the combined finances in a quarterly report (ie., Q4 report in Feb 2017). But overall, I think this quarterly report might be what we need to see sentiment around TSLA turn positive.
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