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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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"I remember conservative friends of mine thinking Obama would destroy America"

I must have missed the part where Obama grouped various races into stereotypical categories for things like deportation and said he enjoyed the perks of fame like being able to grab women's #*($ies...

yup... just like Obama.

Hmmm, Trump said he did those things, Bill Clinton DID those things - IN THE WHITE HOUSE!!

I remember clearly what the liberal media said then - "It's his private life!" Really? While he is in the White House, in the Oval Office, with an intern? I can assure you if Trump did that, every women's rights group in America would be demanding charges be brought against him. Sadly, most women on the liberal side downed the intern as if she had taken advantage of him!

But, we're used to the big ole double standard. Just like Musk running around spewing about Global Warming (which I also believe in), but living in a massive 20 million dollar house, which I'm sure is sucking energy right from the grid. It's the liberal way. "Do as we say, not as we do".

I'm a conservative who believes in climate change. But, the difference is, I do everything possible to help with it. I don't expect someone else to do it and not myself.

PS. Where are those solar powered charging stations I read all about? That was one of the big things that attracted me to Tesla. Turned out to be a big ole lie.
 
Hmmm, Trump said he did those things, Bill Clinton DID those things - IN THE WHITE HOUSE!!

I remember clearly what the liberal media said then - "It's his private life!" Really? While he is in the White House, in the Oval Office, with an intern? I can assure you if Trump did that, every women's rights group in America would be demanding charges be brought against him.
He probably will do that. Let's just hope it's consensual.
 
The futures have recovered much of their earlier losses and European markets are down a modest 1% or so right now (FTSE is almost green).

I don't know what to expect short term. The fact that most everyone seems to be doom and gloom has me leaning toward this will NOT be doom and gloom. We'll see if the retail investors panic after market open.
 
I watched Trump's acceptance speech, and it was very uplifting. He came across sober and reasoned, saying that he will work for all of our (USA's) citizens, and to get along with the whole world (those who will get along with us), with an emphatic statement of working with everyone to make everything great for our country (first, and work with everyone we can in the world in great partnerships). He said those who were opposed to his winning the POTUS election should bring their issues forward to "us" so that we can work together to solve everything. If you're ever in a gloomy mood and aren't highly partisan, I recommend it as something to lift your spirits. It echoed some of the nicer things Clinton said yesterday.

There was quite a bit of everything will be solved as much as possible, but it wasn't over the top. It was a set of goals.

I think NOLA_Mike's comment about retail investors (that would be me) is a good question: will they cling to the admonishments of the mass media campaign machine that says everything is falling apart, especially if it's done by that group of people? SnapChat had lots of very disappointed youth last night, but they're easily impressionable. Everyone else is kind of doing their thing and just parodies what they know or heard. There's probably some inertia in that, and we can ask whether it has any hand in the traders' reactions in the short term.

I remember saying the same thing about Brexit: the political change shouldn't change the economy abruptly, and the changes will be introduced so gradually that business will flourish regardless (I claimed more since independent countries can propel competitive advantages, buoying up the whole economy). After the Brexit vote, the markets dipped, then recovered completely. This time through a few retail investors might even remember the silliness with Brexit and not give it much heed. We already see the dip in premarket; now, we will see the up recovery, just like Brexit, if not a hell of a lot faster.

Trump is a business man. Clinton was a diplomat, politician, fundraiser and favor trader. While there is some overlap, the idea that Trump has never seen how business works falls flat around me.

I was in a gym during the East Coast closing hours of the election, and there were lines in every part of the gym since it was peak hour. Everyone was courteous. No one was out of sorts. I was in San Jose when the polls crossed the probability line. There were no fights, no loud words, no unusual activity. I drove down US-101 in rush hour into Morgan Hill. No one was ambitious or unruly. I drove down the streets to Gilroy, then out toward Watsonville. I saw nary an unsettled soul. Those are all illegal alien heavy enclaves which have had political leanings toward some of the more inflamitory of the Clinton platforms, and there was no unrest. While I'm not claiming that in the entire country there will be no problems at all, I don't see this big upswell of problems that so many in the media were claiming would happen. That's fabrication.

Tesla has more orders for cars and PowerWalls/Packs than it can fill. It has pent up demand for PowerWall and PowerPack. The question is if the political encouragement to save the planet will continue. I don't think the States and the Congress will abandon every principle they had before, nor do I think the electorate will stop the pressure to stop the pollution, and I don't think the customers who want this will evaporate. There is a huge push to clean up our air, skies, and possibly our climate and energy providers, too. We currently use a lot of dirty energy. There is a long time between now and converting to 100% clean energy, because there is a huge amount of work to be done. Tesla only currently sells into a small percent of that. There's plenty more market there. Any business man running Tesla that approaches the world and its politicians correctly will continue to be able to grow into that market in unprecedented ways.

Like we're taught in High School, USA is divided into many levels: Counties, States, and Federal, and in each many branches: Legislative (Congress for feds), Executive (Mayor, Governor, President), and judicial. They all work against each other to slow each other down, counterbalance each other, and to cause each other to not go too crazy. But Trump isn't crazy to begin with! Oh, and the "pro-business" "party" (yeah right but that's what they say) just won both parts of Congress. The economy isn't going to change all of a sudden to any great kind of degree, other than seasonal variations and whatever else is already happening.

President Obama is going to have a very easy morning.
 
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The futures have recovered much of their earlier losses and European markets are down a modest 1% or so right now (FTSE is almost green).

I don't know what to expect short term. The fact that most everyone seems to be doom and gloom has me leaning toward this will NOT be doom and gloom. We'll see if the retail investors panic after market open.

I would think that the voting results that most directly affect SCTY/TSLA in Florida and Nevada are immediately, directly positive for Tesla. I think on the matter of who will be president: my take is that the train with regards to renewables/low carbon energy has left the station: over the past 15 years subsidies made a huge difference, but today solar+wind is simply the cheapest way to create electricity. And once the Gigafactory starts producing cells, I expect that Tesla will be able to deliver every single Powerpack/Powerwall they can produce.

The only short/medium/long-term worry I have is that of trade restrictions (and the accompanying currency fluctuations) which will make global supply chains more risky (and thus more expensive).

I'm less worried on the energy policy side of things: if you wonder how solar+storage in a "carbon only" country is fairing, we may be able to learn a lesson or two from Australia: the government there seems to be determined to dig-up every single piece of coal they can find and yet it seems a great market for the Powerwall (and difficult for Tesla since there is a tax on car imports).

Last edit: In contrast to Brexit (which had immediate direct impact on business as e.g. banks would lose passporting rights for Europe) I recognize that the president can "set the tone" but a lot of it depends on congress. Now under normal circumstances I would think an establishment candidate + a congress of the same party would move things pretty quickly one way or the other but in this case I'm unclear how well president + congress would be aligned. I would expect a "slow" start since the president-elect is not exactly best friends with his own party. In theory this would open quite a few options for bi-partisan collaboration. How that's going to affect the markets, I couldn't say yet. Ideas?
 
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While that is true, what the market really hates is uncertainty. And we just entered a period of great uncertainty of unknown length, because no one knows what Donald Trump will do.
For sure we don't know what Trump will do. However, it's likely that whatever he does do will be based almost entirely on (1) How will it feed his ego? and (2) How will it affect his personal/family wealth?

My fear is that causing a major recession might seem like a good idea to Trump because it will allow his company to buy assets at pennies on the dollar.
 
For sure we don't know what Trump will do. However, it's likely that whatever he does do will be based almost entirely on (1) How will it feed his ego? and (2) How will it affect his personal/family wealth?

My fear is that causing a major recession might seem like a good idea to Trump because it will allow his company to buy assets at pennies on the dollar.

Then we should hope he has more ego than greed.
 
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Now under normal circumstances I would think an establishment candidate + a congress of the same party would move things pretty quickly one way or the other but in this case I'm unclear how well president + congress would be aligned. I would expect a "slow" start since the president-elect is not exactly best friends with his own party. In theory this would open quite a few options for bi-partisan collaboration. How that's going to affect the markets, I couldn't say yet. Ideas?

I think the way Trump ascended to the office (without the support of the Republican Party) means he is arriving with an enormous amount of political capital - more than anyone in a long time. Both parties are weakened by the results of this election. I think he will likely "bully" (for lack of a better word) his agenda through for quite a while.

What is his agenda? Hmmmm, don't really know. But in broad terms I think he has no issues with raising debt - he's operated all his businesses highly leveraged with no aversion to massive debt. So, I think he will spend on infrastructure, lower corporate taxes and will likely leave office with the country in more debt than when he arrived.
 
The markets dipped, then recovered completely.

Woof! Define "Recovered Completely"?

GBP / USD:
Recovery.png
 
Not sure if the dollar would drop that much though on Trump's presidency. A lot depends on what he will actually do since we know so little about his policies. Quite important for a highly leveraged company like Tesla is how his policies will influence the interest on the open market. I honestly have no clue there, but any change could be a blessing or a disaster. If he opens a trade war with China on the other hand, that would obviously be bad for Tesla. The company has no local production and a lot of local competition so it is an easy target for retaliatory action. On the positive side, tax cuts for rich people may translate to more disposable income for luxury goods like top of the line Model S/Xs. The discontinuation of the federal credit was in a sense already baked in and Model 3 demand seems strong enough to survive without. We are likely missing a short term relief rally which we would have had if the vote had gone the other way.
 
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