Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[uselesslogin]

It is really kind of crazy. Tesla is in a massively better position today than 1-2 years ago. I pulled back my investments in tsla until it became clear model X had ramped and major issues had abated. I doubt a Trump administration really changes anything significant at this point, but it has created more uncertainty and ammo for short term FUD.

It really is when you consider the stock was $180 in September 2013. Tesla just delivered more cars in one quarter than they did in all of 2013 but the stock is worth less!? At the end of the day though I always remind myself if Tesla went smoothly upwards from $40 and was just getting to $180 now I wouldn't be complaining about it.

 

[Chartered321]

What I get is what I already saw in Jan / Feb: short or sell gradually up to 10 USD and see how much of them are bought back by longs. If what is bought back is less, then shorts are in control. In a period without catalysts (until Thursday) it might work well. I'll keep on buying the dips according to this.

 

[KLC13]

It really is when you consider the stock was $180 in September 2013. Tesla just delivered more cars in one quarter than they did in all of 2013 but the stock is worth less!? At the end of the day though I always remind myself if Tesla went smoothly upwards from $40 and was just getting to $180 now I wouldn't be complaining about it.

Jun'13 had around 121m shares outstanding. We're at 150m now. So in terms of company value, Tesla did gain about 25% since then, but damn dilution

 

[Turing]

Here's a good readout of the U.S. trade in goods situation with China as of year-end 2015. For 2015, China represented about 50% of the US goods trade deficit, so we shouldn't be caught by surprise at the vigor with which Trump moves to address the situation.

http://origin.www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/trade_bulletins/February 2016 Trade Bulletin.pdf

The services portion of the trade equation looks better, but it is a smaller piece.

Edit: And here is the annual report for 2015. Lots of food for thought.

http://origin.www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/annual_reports/2015 Annual Report to Congress.PDF

There really isn't a whole lot Trump can do outside of discovering a time machine and going back in time and undoing the ratifying of the various stages of WTO. China can effectively retaliate to anything Trump tries to do and a trade war has always been bad for the economy. Also it has been theorized for some time in economics that the nation with reserve world currency status will result in having trade deficits(e.g., Triffin dilemma).

 

[AlMc]

November 2019 options opened up today. For one example, you can get a bright and shiny Jan19 150 call for ~$50. That means you won't lose any money as long as TSLA is above $200 in 2019.

Dang, forgot they opened today.................Thanks 'JH'!!!!

 

[Noble Ninja]

Despite all the amazing progress Tesla has made in the past year, the current TSLA price is clearly not reflecting much of this. This is just short-term volatility, as the company fundamentals are stronger than ever and with a ton of future potential. The current situation is one where we sometimes have to treat the company separately from the stock.

 

[Turing]

Jun'13 had around 121m shares outstanding. We're at 150m now. So in terms of company value, Tesla did gain about 25% since then, but damn dilution

How is that bad? Tesla raised billions in equity at imo overly lofty valuations back then. At a minimum tesla is twice as valuable today as the tesla of 2013/14. So much growth and execution risk has already passed / been accomplished. Model s/x successfully ramping to 100k/yr run rate, panasonic fully stepping up to table on gigafactory which is just about to start production, powerwall 2.0 and powerpack have best pricing in the market. Model 3 looks great, got a awesome reception with 400k reservations. These were just goals back in 2013/14.

 

[Jayjs20]

Well, Elon did say TSLA was overvalued back then.

 

[Noble Ninja]

Well, Elon did say TSLA was overvalued back then.

So then with all the progress Tesla has made since then, it is clearly now undervalued.

+2% bounce from the $178 dip! $182 now.

 

[racer26]

Well, Elon did say TSLA was overvalued back then.

And lately he's been saying he sees a path to a $1T valuation.

I can't think of any good examples of things that Elon has said that don't later turn out to be mostly true.

 

[KLC13]

How is that bad? Tesla raised billions in equity at imo overly lofty valuations back then. At a minimum tesla is twice as valuable today as the tesla of 2013/14.

Not bad for the company at all. Should raise capital when the SP is high (part reason for no raise in Q4 or Q1 2017). The effects of stock dilution are visible though as the company has grown 25% in mkt cap, investors gain got diluted. I'm not complaining, just stating.

 

[3mp_kwh]

I doubt a Trump administration really changes anything significant at this point, but it has created more uncertainty and ammo for short term FUD.

We're being irresponsible to ourselves, if we don't assign some probability to what Trump could do. At this point, the environment is arguably the biggest loser of the election. The Republicans could modify the ITC, and ~8 Democrats might horse trade for something else. I wouldn't give that >50% odds, but when you add it to pressure from the Alliance of Automotive Manufactures, on CAFE and the ZEV MOU, i don't know how we could come up without the possibility of significant changes for TSLA/SCTY.

 

[Jayjs20]

So then with all the progress Tesla has made since then, it is clearly now undervalued.

+2% bounce from the $178 dip! $182 now.

I think the horizontal trading in the last few years was just the company catching up to the stock price. If we haven't gotten there already (the current slump could be due to the SC deal and the uncertainty over the Trump administration and nothing more), I'm sure we'll get it by the time the model 3 comes out.

Just keep clinching your butt and wait another 12 months or so.

 

[SBenson]

California Isn't Planning to Back Away From Zero-Emission Car Rules

 

[Matias]

Statements like this don't serve much of a purpose. Of course I can't "know," but that doesn't mean I can't have extremely high confidence.

In Feb people were saying "you can't know that the price will break 200 again" when it was at 145, but plenty of us "knew" enough (something like 98% certainty) to make tons of money (70% 2.5 month return in my case).

Feel free to check back in between Nov 8 and Dec 8 and see how my bet did. I expect to make a very nice profit, and to be honest I think you would agree that it is very likely. I will be very surprised if I don't, but even then the nice thing is, I still bought Tesla shares at 200 before the model 3 ramp.

This message was posted September 8th and TSLA opening price was 199.55. So at the moment stocks bought in that day are at read.

 

[MitchJi]

At this point, and ~180 price, is there, or is there not, a camp thinking the merger will be called off? Why is it so crazy to think it will?

The only way it gets called off is if the vote which I think is highly unlikely.

 

[Turing]

We're being irresponsible to ourselves, if we don't assign some probability to what Trump could do. At this point, the environment is arguably the biggest loser of the election. The Republicans could modify the ITC, and ~8 Democrats might horse trade for something else. I wouldn't give that >50% odds, but when you add it to pressure from the Alliance of Automotive Manufactures, on CAFE and the ZEV MOU, i don't know how we could come up without the possibility of significant changes for TSLA/SCTY.

Congress and Trump could remove ITC, i would put the odds of this as low until we get something tangible, so far what hints we've gotten suggest otherwise. I'd be more worried about him escalating a trade war and causing a recession. How does reducing CAFE standards hurt tesla? And ZEV standards are state controlled and CA is the most important one by far, not sure how Trump changes that?

 

[Papafox]

TSLA has now recovered more than 50% of the loss at its worst, today. Those of you who held firm and those of you who bought at the bottom of the dip, pat yourselves on the back.

 

[GreenT]

If they can deliver any of this? Aside from Model S and the weird Model X.

I doubt it.

 

[racer26]

If they can deliver any of this? Aside from Model S and the weird Model X.

I doubt it.

Are you suggesting that you don't think Tesla can deliver any of:

PowerPack
PowerWall
Solar Roofing tiles
Model 3
Model Y
Pickup
Roadster 2.0
Semi
Minibus

I assure you that they can and will deliver all of the above, eventually. Many of those items if not all before 2020.