Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Yggdrasill]

there's thousands of people that just got their money back from Trump University... what they were promised was:

they will go from Zero knowledge of real estate to making money like Donald Trump in a short period of time.

sounds ridiculous doesn't it?... what a bunch of fools closing out their 401Ks and going bankrupt for this?

Elon Musk to the guy who invested his net worth in Tesla: ‘We won’t let you down’

Tesla Energy will disrupt the energy sector and become a large portion of Tesla's $1T market cap.

Elon Musk sees Tesla (TSLA) becoming a trillion dollar market cap company with the SolarCity (SCTY) merger

seriously... this whole thing is one stage away from becoming a massive fraud.

I don't see the relevance.

 

[techmaven]

Tesla Energy will disrupt the energy sector and become a large portion of Tesla's $1T market cap.

Elon Musk sees Tesla (TSLA) becoming a trillion dollar market cap company with the SolarCity (SCTY) merger

seriously... this whole thing is one stage away from becoming a massive fraud.

Getting a bit worried, I see. Pictures like these probably won't help you feel better either:

From the Fortune article: An Exclusive Look at Tesla & SolarCity’s Battery Solar Farm in Paradise

Usually, fraudster's don't take that money and actually invest it into factories to make stuff:

including applying for building permits:

Building Permits at Electric Avenue, McCarran, NV, 89434

Or convince Panasonic to invest hundred of millions of dollars thus far, with billions on the way:

Tesla Nevada Q2 GEOD report:
http://www.diversifynevada.com/uploads/reports/Tesla_Qrtrly_Rpt_Q2_2016.pdf

For Q2 2016, Tesla reports an investment of $72 million, for a PTD investment of $452 million; PENA reports an investment of $74 million for a PTD investment of $202 million. The combined PTD investment of $654 million through Q2 2016 represents a 35% increase from the previous quarter.

You can choose to ignore the growing evidence if you wish. All in all, it's a pretty crappy fraud. Taking investor's money and building factories to make stuff. Musk can't even defraud investors properly.

 

[AudubonB]

HISTORICAL NOTE:

On April 28, 2000, General Motors common stock closed at $93.63.
On March 31, 2011, those same shares, not having been affected by any stock splits over that period, closed at $0.04. The $1mm someone invested eleven years earlier were worth a glorious $427.21 (I'm neglecting dividends - my bad). And, over that prior last year, the corporate profit for each of those shares was -$56.85

Please take that into consideration when you bandy about terms like "massive fraud".

On edit:
Here is the best I have been able to find for a price chart of "old" GM shares - 1985 through 2011:

http://www.netadvisor.org/wp-conten...eral-Motors-Corp-2009-03-31Netadvisor-org.jpg

 

[techmaven]

GM and Toyota will prosper, until they don't. Just as housing prices will always climb, until they don't.

We don't yet know the story of their downfall, but it stands to reason that at some point something will change, and they will not be able to adapt. That is the story of every established company that has ever failed. To me, it seems like the transition to all-electric road-transportation is a *significant* change. Self-driving technology as well. Maybe, against all odds, they will be able to adapt, but again, I certainly wouldn't put my money on it.

Actually, we can see the warning signs already for the legacy automakers:

Volkswagen to cut 30,000 jobs

Volkswagen and its labor unions agreed to cut 30,000 jobs at the core VW brand in exchange for a commitment to avoid forced redundancies in Germany until 2025, a compromise which leaves the carmaker's profitability still lagging rivals.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Looking at that picture - anyone remember this article? http://seekingalpha.com/article/3967746-honey-shrunk-gigafactory-ii

• The corner that looks so nice in all those pictures, includes the reception, doors on both sides, sidewalks, street lamps, etc.
• That corner would be in the guts of the entire factory. It and everything around it would have to be demolished months after being built.

It obviously isn't going to be demolished: So obviously, there is no plan on building the rest - no matter what statements are made regarding construction being ahead of time. The fact is that construction is not going to reach what Tesla said to Nevada it would build by October 2017.

 

[doggusfluffy]

The share price of GM, Toyota, etc is based on the concept that they will be able to continue to generate similar revenues and profits in the future. This is not a given.

To survive and prosper, they need to be able to make and sell large numbers of compelling all-electric vehicles at a profit. Right now, they have demonstrated that they are able to make battery-electric vehicles. Debatably, GM has even demonstrated a *compelling* battery-electric vehicle. But the economics are fuzzy - the low production volume and dependence on incentives suggests that all is not well. GM can hide it's floundering EV-programs in the fossil-car revenue, but one day, in the not-so-distant future, these EV programs must support the share price of the company. Is that a transition I would bet on GM executing flawlessly? Not really.

Now, maybe GM will make it, but most likely, there are large car companies that will not. Maybe Toyota or Fiat-Chrysler are in more jeopardy, given their almost non-existant EV-programs. Personally, I wouldn't bet on any of them making the transition successfully, knowing that some will not. The risk in their current unsustainable business models is far greater than my comfort level.

As a result of the above, I feel much more comfortable in investing in Tesla. Tesla is a company that has made the transition into the future, and all the risk now lies in the execution. The execution risks seem managable. Tesla may not always deliver on time, but they are on the right track - not the track that goes off a cliff.

Isn't VW basically the poster child for this transition? This news conference where they admit they're behind Tesla in Electric, connected cars and self driving was quite humbling I imagine.
Volkswagen Shake-Up Meets With Investor Skepticism

 

[RobStark]

I don't see the relevance.

If this is in regards to my comment......

Huge successful companies that look like they have permanent success don't in an open free market economy.

 

[Yggdrasill]

If this is in regards to my comment......

Nope. I assume you've blocked myusername.

(And I agree with your point.)

 

[dennis]

. their share prices are based on value... not growth... these are century old companies with evidence of profit (and hard times).

Oh you mean like when GM and Chrysler went bankrupt and had to be bailed out by the taxpayers?

 

[SunCatcher]

GM and Toyota will prosper, until they don't. Just as housing prices will always climb, until they don't.

We don't yet know the story of their downfall, but it stands to reason that at some point something will change, and they will not be able to adapt. That is the story of every established company that has ever failed. To me, it seems like the transition to all-electric road-transportation is a *significant* change. Self-driving technology as well. Maybe, against all odds, they will be able to adapt, but again, I certainly wouldn't put my money on it.

They'll probably manage all right. But it will quite amusing to watch as they, at some point in the next few years, all of a sudden start scurrying about, trying to get on board with the new reality. Tesla will be miles ahead by that time (well, they already are ), but, let's face it, won't be able to keep up with demand. And the legacy automakers will see the crumbs left on the table, and will realize they have no means of picking them up.

At some point, let's face it, everyone will want an electric car. Oh yes, they will will!

 

[myusername]

Getting a bit worried, I see. Pictures like these probably won't help you feel better either:

From the Fortune article: An Exclusive Look at Tesla & SolarCity’s Battery Solar Farm in Paradise

Usually, fraudster's don't take that money and actually invest it into factories to make stuff:

including applying for building permits:

Building Permits at Electric Avenue, McCarran, NV, 89434

Or convince Panasonic to invest hundred of millions of dollars thus far, with billions on the way:

Tesla Nevada Q2 GEOD report:
http://www.diversifynevada.com/uploads/reports/Tesla_Qrtrly_Rpt_Q2_2016.pdf



You can choose to ignore the growing evidence if you wish. All in all, it's a pretty crappy fraud. Taking investor's money and building factories to make stuff. Musk can't even defraud investors properly.

So... I see 38 PowerPacks in that picture... that's 210KWh/pack * 38 = 7.98MWh... which equates to relatively ZERO dollars.

show me a picture with a quarter square mile of powerpacks and then we'd be talking about the scale that Tesla is supposed to be hitting soon...

WHERE ARE THE TESLA ENERGY ORDERS?

 

[moe.salih]

Can we stop feeding the trolls? The signal to noise ratio is getting too low.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Yup... but what this means is:

You bought a $5b niche auto company and a $25b glorified PowerPoint presentation.

Question: what do you think Tesla as a company would be valued at if it stopped ALL growth prospects and decided to just sell MS profitably?

Hmmmm.... Ground Hog Day...

Early 2013: Non-believers were saying no way Tesla Motors could make Model S. If they do, maybe they will get lucky and sell 20,000 a year. Company is not worth $35 a share.

The point is, you seem to think the stock price should only reflect what's happened to date and in the past. The fact is, stock prices often reflect what investors expect to happen in the future. Most of us here believe most if not all of the "PowerPoint presentation" will become reality.

As to your Question - I don't think it's relevant since Tesla won't be stopping any growth prospects. But having said that, I think Tesla could grow both Model S and Model X sales from where they are now.

 

[Yggdrasill]

So... I see 38 PowerPacks in that picture... that's 210KWh/pack * 38 = 7.98MWh... which equates to relatively ZERO dollars.

show me a picture with a quarter square mile of powerpacks and then we'd be talking about the scale that Tesla is supposed to be hitting soon...

WHERE ARE THE TESLA ENERGY ORDERS?

Tesla probably has sufficient orders for 2016. In January the Powerwall 2 starts shipping, which should add significant volume. Say they ship 20k units in Q1 - that 280 MWh.

There's no way to tell if we should have heard about additional orders yet. Though if we don't hear about any more 50+ MWh orders by the end of 2016, I would start to worry. (Mostly about the ramp, not demand.)

 

[madodel]

Nope. I assume you've blocked myusername.

(And I agree with your point.)

It is weird reading responses to blocked trolls, but the responses are good to read and the troll nonsense not so much. A win-win.

 

[Gerardf]

Looking at that picture - anyone remember this article? http://seekingalpha.com/article/3967746-honey-shrunk-gigafactory-ii

Sure. And also the article(s) Paulo recently did claiming and even defending that the self autonomous driving movie was faked by Tesla. For sure he will now correct / withdraw that article after the new demo movie.. NOT.

These guys are manipulating clowns making up such stories because they are short or being paid. Or both.

 

[doggusfluffy]

It is weird reading responses to blocked trolls, but the responses are good to read and the troll nonsense not so much. A win-win.

Heh agreed. I thought AudubonB had huffed and puffed and banished him away...but I also have him blocked to try and keep this thread readable.

 

[myusername]

it's easy to call me a troll... but why does nobody attempt to answer the question:

where are the Tesla Energy orders?... we're still seeing headlines once a quarter for 10s of MWh... this is nothing.

you claim this company is $1T... you claim all the "trolls" and shorts are wrong because Tesla is ALWAYS just about to destroy every industrial company... and we just don't get it because "next year is going to be off the hook"... well it's next year AGAIN... where's TE?

 

[techmaven]

So... I see 38 PowerPacks in that picture... that's 210KWh/pack * 38 = 7.98MWh... which equates to relatively ZERO dollars.

show me a picture with a quarter square mile of powerpacks and then we'd be talking about the scale that Tesla is supposed to be hitting soon...

You are counting PowerPacks in the picture? Really? These PowerPacks were sold and are now on the ground in Hawaii for a 52 MWh Solarcity project. Here's an older article that provides more detail:
SolarCity's solar + storage play on Kauai

Sure, this project probably is only worth $3 to 5 million in gross profit alone. Gigafactory cell production starts up soon.

 

[myusername]

Tesla probably has sufficient orders for 2016. In January the Powerwall 2 starts shipping, which should add significant volume. Say they ship 20k units in Q1 - that 280 MWh.

There's no way to tell if we should have heard about additional orders yet. Though if we don't hear about any more 50+ MWh orders by the end of 2016, I would start to worry. (Mostly about the ramp, not demand.)

It's Nov 19th, 2016... there should already be a backlog of 100+ MWh orders if this product line was really going to ramp in '17... this isn't the kind of thing you just wake up and impulse buy one day. I don't see TE taking off in Q1/Q2... the entire premise of the GF revolves around this... and there wasn't even a single question about it on the ER!