Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[NOLA_Mike]

all Tesla has done so far is make concepts.

Not just a concept; selling like hotcakes too:

 

[myusername]

Not just a concept; selling like hotcakes too:

View attachment 202866

Yup... but what this means is:

You bought a $5b niche auto company and a $25b glorified PowerPoint presentation.

Question: what do you think Tesla as a company would be valued at if it stopped ALL growth prospects and decided to just sell MS profitably?

 

[myusername]

on a side note... don't you hate it when websites get updated with fancy new features... but don't work as well as before?

 

[KLC13]

The goal here is not to make a bunch of concepts... the goal is to make a business... all Tesla has done so far is make concepts. Some examples:

- in concept, the M3 will sell 500k/yr in 12 mo profitably
- in concept, the solar roof will cost less than simple roofing and be profitable
- in concept, Tesla Energy will sell 10s of GWh annually and be profitable
- in concept, "the machine will build the machine" and manufacturing as we know it will be disrupted

why did I put "in concept" in front of all of those?... because they have yet to be proven... meaning they are literally CONCEPTUAL!

Lol, and what is not a concept? GM's promised Bolt for 2016? Faraday Futures promised Tesla Killer? Fisker Karma v2? Apple's project Titan? All the other EV's promised to hit the road by 2020?

You know what is NOT a concept? At least 100k people eager to convert their reservation to a final order to drive a Tesla. Yes 100k, I assumed a conservative 30% conversion efficiency for M3.

Face it, every single player trying to bring an actual EV to market is falling flat on their faces while Tesla is eating away the market share every single day. If it was so easy to make a competitive EV, established auto would have it out by now, not promised 2 years later.

 

[myusername]

Lol, and what is not a concept? GM's promised Bolt for 2016? Faraday Futures promised Tesla Killer? Fisker Karma v2? Apple's project Titan? All the other EV's promised to hit the road by 2020?

You know what is NOT a concept? At least 100k people eager to convert their reservation to a final order to drive a Tesla. Yes 100k, I assumed a conservative 30% conversion efficiency for M3.

Face it, every single player trying to bring an actual EV to market is falling flat on their faces while Tesla is eating away the market share every single day. If it was so easy to make a competitive EV, established auto would have it out by now, not promised 2 years later.

what is not a concept?

The massive revenues, sales and PROFITS of the companies that you've listed... yes... they have concepts... but even after they pay for the work towards their concepts... they post profits.

The stocks of the companies you listed are NOT BASED ENTIRELY on their concepts like Tesla is... that's the difference.

 

[EinSV]

Not sure if already linked but here is the longer version of the AP2 video: Autopilot Full Self-Driving Hardware (Neighborhood Long)

This is a very powerful video. Just mind boggling how far Tesla has progressed on autonomy only 2 years after releasing AP1 hardware and after only 1 year of active use of AP1.

I am sure there is still a significant amount of work to be done but we may quickly reach the point where the most significant hurdles left for Tesla to fully capitalize on its self-driving capabilities are regulatory rather than technological.

 

[Krugerrand]

Stopped reading right there.
They started operating NUMMI over 6 years ago.

Okay, take the purchase of NUMMI off the list, but they didn't strip it and redo it and fill it in the first year. So the rest of what they did at NUMMI stays on the list.

It is one thing to cherry pick facts to make your case and leave out things like massive delays, promised $500/month leases, folding seats, but at least get the facts you cherry pick correct.

I didn't cherry pick any facts. Indeed, I left many things off the list that they have achieved in that time period. Regardless of any mistakes made along the way, or delays, Tesla STILL accomplished everything on the list and more.

It's one thing to be a contrarian, it's another to be viciously and purposely obtuse. Yes, I'm pointing my finger directly at you in case there's any confusion on your part.

 

[MitchJi]

One more time:
It's really simple:

1. Before the recent date the SP was surprisingly strong, in spite of massive short selling.

2. There were no massive recalls.

3. The large institutions were charging record interest rates, and showing very low numbers of shares available to short.

4. During that time period the large institutions added about 11M shares.

5. The only explanation consistent with these facts is that the ilarge institutions were buying shares to prevent the necessity of doing massive recallls.

6. Immediately after Q3, an amazingly good ER, the SP fell. This is exactly the reverse of number one, caused by 5 above. The SP will resume its normal behavior when the big institutions have finished have completed selling the,shares that they purchased to avoid doing large recalls.

I hope that will be before the Q4 ER-CC.

The Q3 drop was not $35, but roughly one fifteenth of that - $2.11, as on 7/01 stock opened at $206.14 while on 9/30 it closed at $204.03

The net reduction in institutional SO was not 11M shares, but about 30% less - 8.75M shares. See snapshot of the NASDAQ summary below

The most likely sequence of events can be surmised by looking at the chart. Whatever positions institutional SO trimmed for whatever reason (whether unhappiness with SCTY acquisition, or in reaction to global concerns post Brexit) were most likely sold into the shares recall - it would be plain stupid for them not to do it, as they had first hand knowledge of the recall dynamics, and selling into the recall when stock was trading in $220-$230 range in spite of an assault of mostly fabricated "bad news" assured that they got top dollar for the stock. The slide down from this $220-$230 plateau was triggered when after period of no shares available for shorting there was over a sudden sizable dump of shares for shorting and sudden availability of them.

I think that before speculating one needs to take a look at the chart to see if speculation is consistent with it. Since this topic and narrative which I believe to be inaccurate keeps popping up, I am going to post annotated chart over the weekend which in my view shows that this narrative is questionable. What I see is that SP drop in Q3 (after the rise and trading in $220-$230 range associated with shares recall) was mostly defined by incessant negative propaganda coupled with the strategic shorting attacks.

The problem is that we have snap shot of SO at the end of Q2 and at the end of Q3, and there is no information on institutional SO in-between. You can't associate $35 drop with these two snap shots because the drop associated with these two snapshots was not $35, but as I pointed out only $2. The bottom line is that if you go back and look at the contemporaneous posts, the $220-230 plateau was associated with no shares available to short, and the drop from this plateau, as I mentioned several times now, coincided with the sudden availability of shares for shorting.

As was demonstrated many times mostly by @Papafox and occasionally by myself these snapshots do not tell the whole story. What is moving the stock is concentrated shorting, see this post for an example. There is no way these patterns which were demonstrated over and over again are consistent with selling by institutional SO.

Well, you original point was that $35 drop can be explained with the institutional selling. In my view, it can not. As I pointed out the slide from the $220-230 plateau coincides with the availability of shares for shorting and shorting activity similar to an example linked above.

.

 

[Krugerrand]

I will just counter with fewer words: our level of faith is different in the short term.

No, actually it's not.

I realize the solar tiles aren't going to be out tomorrow, or next week, or next quarter. I realize TE could be non-consequential this quarter or even next if things don't go as Tesla has planned. I realize the short term SP can pretty much be anywhere on the map. It's out of our control. I may be a gambler at heart, but I'm not a stupid one. And I don't mind taking a big risk, but it'll be a shrewdly calculated risk.

The difference may actually be that I simply do not care what the SP does Monday morning because in the end it won't make one bit of difference to the final outcome. The skinning of the cat can go quickly and smoothly, or it may be a bloody mess, but in the end the cat is skinned.

If you have information for us all that you can share that leads you to believe in the short term that TSLA will be north of $200 I believe there are many here that would like to know.

Nope. I've not got a clue what's going to happen in the short term to the SP as clearly evidenced by my last prediction. The only belief I have in the market/institutional buyers/and the like is that they're motivated by the almighty dollar come hell or high water. I'm not interested in being a part of that shark tank.

Long term TSLA will appreciate and reward us all well. Short term (this thread), I am skeptical.

Yes, I get that. We don't disagree.

 

[Yggdrasill]

what is not a concept?

The massive revenues, sales and PROFITS of the companies that you've listed... yes... they have concepts... but even after they pay for the work towards their concepts... they post profits.

The stocks of the companies you listed are NOT BASED ENTIRELY on their concepts like Tesla is... that's the difference.

The share price of GM, Toyota, etc is based on the concept that they will be able to continue to generate similar revenues and profits in the future. This is not a given.

To survive and prosper, they need to be able to make and sell large numbers of compelling all-electric vehicles at a profit. Right now, they have demonstrated that they are able to make battery-electric vehicles. Debatably, GM has even demonstrated a *compelling* battery-electric vehicle. But the economics are fuzzy - the low production volume and dependence on incentives suggests that all is not well. GM can hide it's floundering EV-programs in the fossil-car revenue, but one day, in the not-so-distant future, these EV programs must support the share price of the company. Is that a transition I would bet on GM executing flawlessly? Not really.

Now, maybe GM will make it, but most likely, there are large car companies that will not. Maybe Toyota or Fiat-Chrysler are in more jeopardy, given their almost non-existant EV-programs. Personally, I wouldn't bet on any of them making the transition successfully, knowing that some will not. The risk in their current unsustainable business models is far greater than my comfort level.

As a result of the above, I feel much more comfortable in investing in Tesla. Tesla is a company that has made the transition into the future, and all the risk now lies in the execution. The execution risks seem managable. Tesla may not always deliver on time, but they are on the right track - not the track that goes off a cliff.

 

[MitchJi]

I have a short term macro concern. After his post election speech, which was inconsistent with his past, quite a few people believed that Trump had changed. But if you follow his cabinet selections he has not changed, unless you consider his record of lying. The most blatant example is the selection of a white nationalist as his adviser.

I believe that when he takes office for the first 60-120 days, a substantial percentage of the electorate will be shocked. I don't believe that he will damage Tesla in the long term, but combined with all of the FUD I believe that there is a substantial risk of a short term dip.

I'm hoping that this doesn't suck all the air out of a great Q4 ER, which is just a few weeks after he takes office.

 

[myusername]

The share price of GM, Toyota, etc is based on the concept that they will be able to continue to generate similar revenues and profits in the future. This is not a given.

To survive and prosper, they need to be able to make and sell large numbers of compelling all-electric vehicles at a profit. Right now, they have demonstrated that they are able to make battery-electric vehicles. Debatably, GM has even demonstrated a *compelling* battery-electric vehicle. But the economics are fuzzy - the low production volume and dependence on incentives suggests that all is not well. GM can hide it's floundering EV-programs in the fossil-car revenue, but one day, in the not-so-distant future, these EV programs must support the share price of the company. Is that a transition I would bet on GM executing flawlessly? Not really.

Now, maybe GM will make it, but most likely, there are large car companies that will not. Maybe Toyota or Fiat-Chrysler are in more jeopardy, given their almost non-existant EV-programs. Personally, I wouldn't bet on any of them making the transition successfully, knowing that some will not. The risk in their current unsustainable business models is far greater than my comfort level.

As a result of the above, I feel much more comfortable in investing in Tesla. Tesla is a company that has made the transition into the future, and all the risk now lies in the execution. The execution risks seem managable. Tesla may not always deliver on time, but they are on the right track - not the track that goes off a cliff.

"To survive and prosper, they need to be able to make and sell large numbers of compelling all-electric vehicles at a profit"

is this a fact?... why are statements like these discussed on this forum as if it is factually understood?... being the basis for your entire post that then leads to ***maybe*** some of the other companies won't fold?...

your entire point is based on the unproven concepts that I pointed out above... so basically... you are stacking cards...

It works like this: "Tesla will expand to 80k cars/yr... so then 500k/yr makes sense... so then 1m/yr makes sense... and if that all makes sense then so does TE going from 0% to 10GWh/yr in 3 years... and since all of these concepts are no brainers... then I might as well blindly believe that there are no loopholes in Elon's statements about solar roofs."

one unproven point becomes evidence for the next unproven point... until the next thing we know Hillary is literally considered Satan and Trump is our freaking President!

humans are so easily manipulable... and are then PROUD of it!!!

 

[myusername]

The share price of GM, Toyota, etc is based on the concept that they will be able to continue to generate similar revenues and profits in the future. This is not a given.

To survive and prosper, they need to be able to make and sell large numbers of compelling all-electric vehicles at a profit. Right now, they have demonstrated that they are able to make battery-electric vehicles. Debatably, GM has even demonstrated a *compelling* battery-electric vehicle. But the economics are fuzzy - the low production volume and dependence on incentives suggests that all is not well. GM can hide it's floundering EV-programs in the fossil-car revenue, but one day, in the not-so-distant future, these EV programs must support the share price of the company. Is that a transition I would bet on GM executing flawlessly? Not really.

Now, maybe GM will make it, but most likely, there are large car companies that will not. Maybe Toyota or Fiat-Chrysler are in more jeopardy, given their almost non-existant EV-programs. Personally, I wouldn't bet on any of them making the transition successfully, knowing that some will not. The risk in their current unsustainable business models is far greater than my comfort level.

As a result of the above, I feel much more comfortable in investing in Tesla. Tesla is a company that has made the transition into the future, and all the risk now lies in the execution. The execution risks seem managable. Tesla may not always deliver on time, but they are on the right track - not the track that goes off a cliff.

"The share price of GM, Toyota, etc is based on the concept that they will be able to continue to generate similar revenues and profits in the future"

and btw... this is BS... their share prices are based on value... not growth... these are century old companies with evidence of profit (and hard times)... suggesting that the expectation that they will perform next quarter or next year similar to how they performed for the last year is comparable to "we will be colonizing Mars starting in 2024"... or "Tesla Energy will go from Zero to total energy sector disruption"... is simply ridiculous.

 

[Yggdrasill]

"To survive and prosper, they need to be able to make and sell large numbers of compelling all-electric vehicles at a profit"

is this a fact?... why are statements like these discussed on this forum as if it is factually understood?... being the basis for your entire post that then leads to ***maybe*** some of the other companies won't fold?...

your entire point is based on the unproven concepts that I pointed out above... so basically... you are stacking cards...

It works like this: "Tesla will expand to 80k cars/yr... so then 500k/yr makes sense... so then 1m/yr makes sense... and if that all makes sense then so does TE going from 0% to 10GWh/yr in 3 years... and since all of these concepts are no brainers... then I might as well blindly believe that there are no loopholes in Elon's statements about solar roofs."

one unproven point becomes evidence for the next unproven point... until the next thing we know Hillary is literally considered Satan and Trump is our freaking President!

humans are so easily manipulable... and are then PROUD of it!!!

All projections about the future come with some uncertainty. Nothing is absolute fact.

The necessity of the transition to all-electric road transportation is probably the statement in my post to which I would attach the least amount of uncertainty. Even disregarding the environment, we know oil will run out, and battery-electric is the best route going forward by a wide margin. This is something that will happen, it's just a question of when. (Unless, for instance, the Earth is struck by a planet-killing asteroid.)

 

[techmaven]

Tesla is not "SO FAR AHEAD" in anything except conceptual ideas... until you see something on a balance sheet that shows otherwise... you have ZERO evidence that it's real.

Unfortunately for you, this isn't how the real world markets work... so you can go with that idea if you want, but it plainly isn't reality.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I am going to say something somewhat contraversial. I think Wall Street is convinced of an equity raise and that is what is keeping the stock stuck in the mud. Most on here are long term holders. We will be holding if the stock hits $100.00. So I am recommending that in this era of ULTRA NEGATIVITY, that Elon proceeds to raise equity IMMEDIATELY at $175 to $180 per share. Let the haters have one last hurrah. I am convinced that once an equity raise is out of the way, the sky is the limit. Do it Elon. I know you lurk around here. I just sent him a tweet recommending same at this apex of negativity.

 

[myusername]

All projections about the future come with some uncertainty. Nothing is absolute fact.

The necessity of the transition to all-electric road transportation is probably the statement in my post to which I would attach the least amount of uncertainty. Even disregarding the environment, we know oil will run out, and battery-electric is the best route going forward by a wide margin. This is something that will happen, it's just a question of when. (Unless, for instance, the Earth is struck by a planet-killing asteroid.)

there's thousands of people that just got their money back from Trump University... what they were promised was:

they will go from Zero knowledge of real estate to making money like Donald Trump in a short period of time.

sounds ridiculous doesn't it?... what a bunch of fools closing out their 401Ks and going bankrupt for this?

Elon Musk to the guy who invested his net worth in Tesla: ‘We won’t let you down’

Tesla Energy will disrupt the energy sector and become a large portion of Tesla's $1T market cap.

Elon Musk sees Tesla (TSLA) becoming a trillion dollar market cap company with the SolarCity (SCTY) merger

seriously... this whole thing is one stage away from becoming a massive fraud.

 

[RobStark]

After his post election speech, which was inconsistent with his past,

Reality is objective and is not subject to an election.

 

[Yggdrasill]

"The share price of GM, Toyota, etc is based on the concept that they will be able to continue to generate similar revenues and profits in the future"

and btw... this is BS... their share prices are based on value... not growth... these are century old companies with evidence of profit (and hard times)... suggesting that the expectation that they will perform next quarter or next year similar to how they performed for the last year is comparable to "we will be colonizing Mars starting in 2024"... or "Tesla Energy will go from Zero to total energy sector disruption"... is simply ridiculous.

GM and Toyota will prosper, until they don't. Just as housing prices will always climb, until they don't.

We don't yet know the story of their downfall, but it stands to reason that at some point something will change, and they will not be able to adapt. That is the story of every established company that has ever failed. To me, it seems like the transition to all-electric road-transportation is a *significant* change. Self-driving technology as well. Maybe, against all odds, they will be able to adapt, but again, I certainly wouldn't put my money on it.

 

[RobStark]

GM and Toyota will prosper, until they don't. .

Look at the original companies that composed the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

There is General Electric.

Then 3 became insignificant subsidiaries/divisions of much larger conglomerates.

And the rest failed and are out of business.