The problem is that we have snap shot of SO at the end of Q2 and at the end of Q3, and there is no information on institutional SO in-between. You can't associate $35 drop with these two snap shots because the drop associated with these two snapshots was not $35, but as I pointed out only $2. The bottom line is that if you go back and look at the contemporaneous posts, the $220-230 plateau was associated with no shares available to short, and the drop from this plateau, as I mentioned several times now, coincided with the sudden availability of shares for shorting.
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The problem is that we have snap shot of SO at the end of Q2 and at the end of Q3, and there is no information on institutional SO in-between. You can't associate $35 drop with these two snap shots because the drop associated with these two snapshots was not $35, but as I pointed out only $2. The bottom line is that if you go back and look at the contemporaneous posts, the $220-230 plateau was associated with no shares available to short, and the drop from this plateau, as I mentioned several times now, coincided with the sudden availability of shares for shorting.
#1 Bolt is not based on Sonic. Chevrolet Bolt - Wikipedia
#2 Sonic does not cost $15k. It is listed at around $23k here in CA.
Cars.com
Even if it was from a $15k Sonic, GM would like to keep $20k profit instead of $10k profit per car, if they can sell all they can make. Isn't that just good business?
It took me only 5 minutes to fact check your statement. I used Wikipedia and the internet. It's a great new invention
Please donate some to Wikipedia before the year end and get the tax deduction. I do every year. Let there be light of knowledge everywhere!
So, I am wondering, what over a sudden happened with the imminent competition from GM and their "Tesla killer" Bolt? Why such a limited availability of the "killer": do they stop wishing to kill, loosing too much money on each car, or do not see demand for it ?
And incidentally, everywhere in US, including CA, Sonic starting price is $14,945:
The company is just SO FAR AHEAD.
Now in multiple fields - EVs, utility energy storage, solar installations (U.S.), distributed storage, solar roofing and now, even more so, vehicle autonomy.
Just like the Model S was a huge leap in 2012 without a real competitor in sight 4 years later, this latest 2.0 video is a giant step past any other production system. Coupled to the model 3 within the next 12 months will make it a complete revolution in transport.
I am extremely confident that raising another billion or three will be no problem.
I know that this is a short term thread, but the various metrics usually used for corporate valuation make little sense when applied to Tesla.
Or you can listen to those who say Tesla should be valued on a similar basis to a company like Ford.
Now in multiple fields - EVs, utility energy storage, solar installations (U.S.), distributed storage, solar roofing and now, even more so, vehicle autonomy.
Just like the Model S was a huge leap in 2012 without a real competitor in sight 4 years later, this latest 2.0 video is a giant step past any other production system. Coupled to the model 3 within the next 12 months will make it a complete revolution in transport.
I am extremely confident that raising another billion or three will be no problem.
I know that this is a short term thread, but the various metrics usually used for corporate valuation make little sense when applied to Tesla.
Or you can listen to those who say Tesla should be valued on a similar basis to a company like Ford.
Once again, you are trying to explain stock movement within the period with the snapshots that are valid only at the beginning and at the end of the period. So this data only explains SP movement of $2, as noted.
Of course I agree with the reasons for the rise and drop, and I am offering explanation based on contemporaneous data for both: increase when supply of shares tightened due to no shares available to short and recalls that exerted buying pressure, and drop when shares for shorting re-appeared and were being shorted, creating selling pressure and at the same time diluting outstanding shares.
dennis
Model S Plaid
I probably shouldn't respond to your rude personal attack, but I too used the internet before posting.#1 Bolt is not based on Sonic. Chevrolet Bolt - Wikipedia
#2 Sonic does not cost $15k. It is listed at around $23k here in CA.
Cars.com
Even if it was from a $15k Sonic, GM would like to keep $20k profit instead of $10k profit per car, if they can sell all they can make. Isn't that just good business?
It took me only 5 minutes to fact check your statement. I used Wikipedia and the internet. It's a great new invention
Please donate some to Wikipedia before the year end and get the tax deduction. I do every year. Let there be light of knowledge everywhere!
I typed "Chevy Sonic MSRP" into Google and here is what I got:
2017 Chevrolet Sonic/MSRP
From $15,145
It also appears that Chevy changed approaches from what I originally learned about the Bolt platform: "GM spokesperson Kevin Kelley did follow up to state the Bolt EV originally began on the Gamma architecture but evolved to its own platform over time."
Read more: http://gmauthority.com/blog/2016/09/2017-chevrolet-bolt-ev-rides-on-unique-secret-platform/#ixzz4QQs0rlsv
The Bolt is 10" shorter than the Sonic and has a 3" longer wheelbase. Same basic econobox size.
You also haven't explained the $22,000 price differential.
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I don't think short interest throughout Q3 can support short selling being the major reason of the fall from 230 to 200 in Q3 (that's my understanding of the point you're making here, please correct me if I'm wrong). We started with 31 m, dropped to 27 m at the end of July (also highest stock price in Q3). Continue to drop but much slower to 26 m at the end of August. Then climbed back to near 28 m. There were a net 5 m at most covered here. And assuming those were recalled and SO against merger sold into this, there are still 4-6 m from SO who were long (depending if you want to use net or not) waiting to be sold around mid Q3.
So by just looking at this, selling pressure should have been slightly more from longs selling instead of short selling. But also when you consider the selling into short recall cover, that basically just reinforced SO long selling was the main reason of under performance of the stock - if they didn't sell into those recalled shorts, there would have been a short squeeze instead of a plateau.
As was demonstrated many times mostly by @Papafox and occasionally by myself these snapshots do not tell the whole story. What is moving the stock is concentrated shorting, see this post for an example. There is no way these patterns which were demonstrated over and over again are consistent with selling by institutional SO.
Well, you original point was that $35 drop can be explained with the institutional selling. In my view, it can not. As I pointed out the slide from the $220-230 plateau coincides with the availability of shares for shorting and shorting activity similar to an example linked above.
Not sure if already linked but here is the longer version of the AP2 video: Autopilot Full Self-Driving Hardware (Neighborhood Long)
I'm not contesting trading patterns over a few hours when short selling is having a visible effect, I totally agree with it. But shorts can only keep doing that when longs allow them to, or even joining them.
Yes but during that super high interest rate for short period, only about 4 m of shorts covered. Even if all those covered were bought from SO selling, there's still more than 4 m of long SO selling activity. And again, long SO selling to shorts finding cover is the reason of no short squeeze isn't it?
sundaymorning
Active Member
While some members here have argued that competitors will eventually catch up, simple observation shows the contrary, the gap between Tesla and the next best competitor seems to be getting further and further.
#1 Bolt is not based on Sonic. Chevrolet Bolt - Wikipedia
#2 Sonic does not cost $15k. It is listed at around $23k here in CA.
Cars.com
Even if it was from a $15k Sonic, GM would like to keep $20k profit instead of $10k profit per car, if they can sell all they can make. Isn't that just good business?
It took me only 5 minutes to fact check your statement. I used Wikipedia and the internet. It's a great new invention
Please donate some to Wikipedia before the year end and get the tax deduction. I do every year. Let there be light of knowledge everywhere!
Riiight. Which is why they've limited sales to only CA and OR state, and doing a slow rollout (despite claiming to release it in all 50 states), because it's too profitable? I guess I should've ignored you a long time ago.
If this doesn't scream buy our cars and buy our stock
The stubbornness that prevents the institutional manufacturers from catching up is the same stubbornness that stops investors from investing in a company that looks the same to them but is really totally different. It's myspace vs facebook accelerated. Who figures it out first Im not sure. When manufacturers figure it out they have a few years before they recover, Tesla has the charging infrastructure, the battery manufacturing and the automation to make them irrelevant (not to mention the software foresight). Investors can turn around in a minute.
All that being said given the way things have happened, I have no idea who will figure it out first. As a car company tesla is worth exactly what its worth. As a company doing 5 things at once, and doing them 10x better and faster than anyone else, its worth a lot more.
Cool! Great to see what objects it recognizes (seems like everything). Happy with the people walking at the road side recognition and it slowing way down as well as dealing with cyclists. Actually almost looks like they saw our discussion here regarding whether in the first video they cut out critical scenes (completely continuous this time if I didn´t miss anything) and whether the pedestrian was random at the end (so many people walking around at the end of the new vid that this really seems unlikely this time).
Going to the Tesla vimeo feed I also found this, don´t know if it was posted already (one week test drive program in exchange for you old car):
Drive to Believe | Tesla
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Ron Baron Expands 5 Positions in 3rd Quarter
"
Tesla
Baron increased his position in Tesla 7.70%, purchasing 111,256 shares at an average price of $216.58."
"
Tesla
Baron increased his position in Tesla 7.70%, purchasing 111,256 shares at an average price of $216.58."
After watching the latest AP2 vids (Im assuming they are based on current production hardware), I cant believe how much catching up competition has to do.
They have to compete on:
1. Range
2. Battery cost
3. Performance
4. Production volume
5. Charging
6. Autonomy
7. EV brand loyalty development
All the new EV competition announced for 2018-2020 seem like long range EVs competing against the 2012 Model S.
Basically Big Auto gave Tesla a 10 year lead and under Elon, Tesla has made use of every single second of that 10 year period to create a dominant position.
Shorts may still argue this doesnt justify the SP. But im sure deep inside, even they must have started having internal conflicts on their position after watching the progress.
They have to compete on:
1. Range
2. Battery cost
3. Performance
4. Production volume
5. Charging
6. Autonomy
7. EV brand loyalty development
All the new EV competition announced for 2018-2020 seem like long range EVs competing against the 2012 Model S.
Basically Big Auto gave Tesla a 10 year lead and under Elon, Tesla has made use of every single second of that 10 year period to create a dominant position.
Shorts may still argue this doesnt justify the SP. But im sure deep inside, even they must have started having internal conflicts on their position after watching the progress.
N5329K
Active Member
Really impressive. Nothing I desire from a car but a technological masterpiece all the same.
Robin
@TMSE please when you are addressing someone, put something like an @ sign as this is quite confusing.
(this (your comment) may be at someone i keep putting on ignore tho, if so apologies)
@mmd
get back to us in a while with real costs, K.
I'm ready for my 3rd (third){3x asphalt shingles} (Thats -->3 roofs) in 33 years I used high end shingles.
Now I will need to remove and reinstall my PV array (except its only 3.5% efficient) and reshingle [except i'm 68].
(I bought the house specifically as the long axis places the south roof faceing 195 degrees for PV maximizing in 1983)
You are correct it (asphalt) is cheap.
You are incorrect that PV shingles are expensive, you will only need to buy your roof, ONCE and not remove and replace the PV array every time you reroof, however, this is a SHORT TERM THREAD, so I expect short term values and views
The goal here is not to make a bunch of concepts... the goal is to make a business... all Tesla has done so far is make concepts. Some examples:
- in concept, the M3 will sell 500k/yr in 12 mo profitably
- in concept, the solar roof will cost less than simple roofing and be profitable
- in concept, Tesla Energy will sell 10s of GWh annually and be profitable
- in concept, "the machine will build the machine" and manufacturing as we know it will be disrupted
why did I put "in concept" in front of all of those?... because they have yet to be proven... meaning they are literally CONCEPTUAL!
Tesla is not "SO FAR AHEAD" in anything except conceptual ideas... until you see something on a balance sheet that shows otherwise... you have ZERO evidence that it's real.
For example... we're still hearing about how big TE is about to get... well WHERE ARE THE 250MWh ORDERS for Q1?... or the 500MWh orders for Q2?... or the 1GWh orders for Q3?... why haven't we heard about these yet?... it's almost December and there's ZERO news about massive scaling of TE... and then you guys make statements like:
"Or you can listen to those who say Tesla should be valued on a similar basis to a company like Ford"
as if only a fool would think such a thing.
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