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GBleck
Member
phigment
Member
Yes they are. And they're significantly behind the pace set for NA deliveries last quarter.
Yeah, unfortunately we really don't have good visibility into Tesla's sales into Asia before Tesla's reports. It does appear that Tesla chose to have far more regional allocation of production this quarter. Overall, that should be good for sales numbers for the quarter, but it is very back loaded with a lot of pressure on December.
There's of course the dynamic of any production hiccups...
Looking at the data at:
Tesla Europe Registration Stats
Note that Asia was estimated at 17.8% of deliveries in Q3. That's the highest since Q3 and Q4 of 2014 when deliveries just started in Asia. A stronger allocation to China would make U.S. numbers appear low.
PaulRocket
Member
Could you tell us more about that? Where do you have that information from?
PaulRocket
Member
Will anyone here do a tour of the factory in the next few weeks? Or tour the Tilburg plant? Please ask if they had any challenges with AP2.0 and if they've overcome them. Even if you don't get all the answers it would be very interesting to hear!
mmd
Active Member
As usual, no one wants to understand the obvious. @kehlKroos 's point is that insideevs reasoning, that AP 2.0 delayed deliveries, may be wrong. Because a full ship of AP 2.0 cars already reached Asia a week ago. If they could reach Asia, they could reach any customer in NA.
Exactly, it's the same story every quarter, so something truly extraordinary would have to happen for them to make up the lost ground in December, right? They are way behind. Even with the huge jump in September, July + August deliveries were significantly higher than October + November
Mike Smith
Active Member
All that matters is that Tesla meet expectations for growth in their run-rate, which they'll have done this year. One-time understandable delays caused by implementing new technology don't matter. The market proved this in Q2 when Tesla wildly missed their numbers but the stock actually went higher when they said they were exiting the quarter at a sustainable, high run-rate. Besides, insidevs said they could still deliver 25,000 as they're expecting a massive December. How they end the quarter matters way more than how they start it.
Yes this is it should be
production is no problem
They already built 80K by the end of Nov
Ok I suck at these back of the envelope calcs, but still:
In Q4 2015, Tesla was able to deliver twice the number of Model S in Dec. than in October. In Q4 2014, Tesla delivered 2.7 times the number of Model S in Dec. than in October.
They have delivered a total of 1,650 S&X in Oct. 2016. Assuming a 2x multiple in Dec., means 3,300 S&X in Dec. 2016. So the total US deliveries will be 1,650 (Oct) + 2,300 (Nov) + 3,300 (Dec) = 7,250 deliveries in Q4 in US.
Assuming 50% for US, another 7,000 for rest. Add the 5k cars in transit, we're at 19k cars in Q4... Assuming a 20% fudge (positively), we're still at only 24k. Doesnt look too good. Was hoping for 26k this quarter
In Q4 2015, Tesla was able to deliver twice the number of Model S in Dec. than in October. In Q4 2014, Tesla delivered 2.7 times the number of Model S in Dec. than in October.
They have delivered a total of 1,650 S&X in Oct. 2016. Assuming a 2x multiple in Dec., means 3,300 S&X in Dec. 2016. So the total US deliveries will be 1,650 (Oct) + 2,300 (Nov) + 3,300 (Dec) = 7,250 deliveries in Q4 in US.
Assuming 50% for US, another 7,000 for rest. Add the 5k cars in transit, we're at 19k cars in Q4... Assuming a 20% fudge (positively), we're still at only 24k. Doesnt look too good. Was hoping for 26k this quarter
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That's a very poor extrapolation. We've known that the factory has been cranking for some time but not with US vehicles. The regional allocation is far stronger in Q4 than other quarters.
As Gilda Radner would say "It's always something".
Got to blame it on something.
I am surprised that Tesla delayed deliveries for the AP2 hardware.
IIRC, the timeline back in Sept and Oct for delivery was less than a month or so (discussed a lot here showing how the production capacity was ramping nicely)
Yes I agree the regional allocation would be much different in Q4. So that 20% fudge could be 30% (taking into account factory efficiencies, regional bias, better shipping logistics etc.) and we will be at 26k then. Fingers crossed
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