Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[vgrinshpun]

I think we can safely assume that if we don't make the 26k deliveries we need to reach guidance, it will not be because of a demand issue. We know that VIN assignments have been happening at a fast enough clip to make the 26k.

From about late July through the end of 3Q16, TSLA was pushing every demand lever they could find to get cars out before Sept 30. We have seen nothing like that this quarter, but they're still maintaining guidance, and the InsideEVs numbers certainly seem to suggest that US deliveries so far this quarter are lackluster to say the least.

There are two main forces I can think of that would yield the data we see.

1) Much more geographic batching than in past quarters. With MX finally unfurling its wings and flying, we know that there are many overseas MX orders to be filled, and so a much greater than normal amount of the quarter's early production could have been for overseas delivery than in past quarters. Additionally, the large demand in China and HK continues to grow, and with a 40% First Registration Tax being imposed on BEVs and PHEVs starting April 1, 2017 in HK, Tesla may have allocated additional vehicles there to capture demand before the tax cuts demand severely. Other overseas regions have similar changes to taxation or incentives in the immediate future as well.

2) AP2 changeover. We know that the factory was expected to be shut down for 2 weeks in 4Q16. What we don't know, is if that 2 weeks has already happened during the changeover or if its happening around christmas time. Makes sense that it would have been done for the AP2 changeover, and maybe we won't see a christmas shutdown. If the AP2 changeover did have some QC issues that slowed the line down longer than the 2 weeks, it could certainly appear in Nov deliveries.

Rumors of buyers having their US delivery dates pushed back would be consistent with either of these, though I admit that the geographic batching was likely well enough defined in advance that it shouldn't have impacted US dates, so I would estimate that it lends some credence to the rumors of AP2 changeover glitches.

The other piece of the puzzle we don't know is how fast the line is capable of operating at max speed. We know we were targeting 2400cars/wk for the end of 4Q16. Can the line go faster than that to compensate for glitches? There must be some upper limit to how fast the line can go, but nobody really knows what it is.

The nominal production capability was quoted by Elon to be "comfortably" at 2500 cars/week. I assume that this implies standard two shift operation - average of 16 hours, 5 days per week. It is limited by the capability of final assembly line.

The combined nominal capacity of two body welding lines is, however, much higher - about 3,700 cars per week.

 

[kehlKroos]

tesla can deliver 26K minimum and 34K maximum in Q4

 

[elasalle]

Anyone has info on Tesla/Solarcity Energy business financials? I don't recall seeing financial numbers in their individual earnings calls. This might have been due to the joint-venture status? EM said SolarCity 2017 revenue numbers were good & we know about 2 large scale projects Souther Cal and Hawaii. Also recently on the news was how a whole island got all its power from Tesla solution.
thanks.

 

[MonroeSS]

Funny how a news article about the Bolt losing $9,000 gets treated like the gospel but the same news site has claimed that the Model 3 will not make any money, that Tesla loses between $4000 and $19000 per Model S sale,. The same author has not too long ago that Tesla spends $30,000 per battery pack and can't make any money selling the Model S. Funny how everything you agree with is suddenly a fact and everything you disagree with is from a person full of sh*t even when both opinions are from the same person.

So what if the Bolt loses money before ZEV credits? Anyone remember that the only two quarters Tesla made money was through ZEV credits? You think the company going all out to improve margins, the company that has voluntarily cut fleet sales by a quarter million to improve margins, the company that has doubled net income in 3 years, the company on track to make a record profit this year, is willingly throwing away $9,000 per sale? If they really want to sell a compliance car they could have just made more Spark EVs and send them to California, No point in spending $1B to develop an all new EV.

The drop in Model S and X deliveries must be due to the Chevy Bolt effect!
<Runs and hides. Let me know when it is safe to come out>

As preposterous as it may sound to everyone here think about it for a second..

Clearly there are many who want a long range EV but do not want a large car or spend $70K to own one . Their lives are not pathetic that they need a fancy car to make them feel better/richer/important. Unless you really need to carry 5 large adults in your car it makes a lot of sense to buy a Bolt and save the $30,000 that can go towards more important things in life like family, their health and well being, kids tuition/college fund, solar panels, upgrade to HE appliances, better insulation etc.

So the fall in Tesla sales must surely be due to the upcoming Bolt. Unless any one thinks the car they drive will define them then in that case the sales drop had probably nothing to do with the Bolt. Want to know if the car a person drives defines them? Would you marry an ugly, nasty, rude person even though he/she drives a $110,000 BMW X6M or would you rather be with an attractive, kind, courteous and polite person even though all they could afford was a $1,100 1999 Jeep? All the people calling the Bolt ugly must be one hell of a catch, right? Remember, the Model X has been called much worse, on TMC included.

 

[kehlKroos]

Funny how a news article about the Bolt losing $9,000 gets treated like the gospel but the same news site has claimed that the Model 3 will not make any money, that Tesla loses between $4000 and $19000 per Model S sale,. The same author has not too long ago that Tesla spends $30,000 per battery pack and can't make any money selling the Model S. Funny how everything you agree with is suddenly a fact and everything you disagree with is from a person full of sh*t even when both opinions are from the same person.

So what if the Bolt loses money before ZEV credits? Anyone remember that the only two quarters Tesla made money was through ZEV credits? You think the company going all out to improve margins, the company that has voluntarily cut fleet sales by a quarter million to improve margins, the company that has doubled net income in 3 years, the company on track to make a record profit this year, is willingly throwing away $9,000 per sale? If they really want to sell a compliance car they could have just made more Spark EVs and send them to California, No point in spending $1B to develop an all new EV.

The drop in Model S and X deliveries must be due to the Chevy Bolt effect!
<Runs and hides. Let me know when it is safe to come out>

As preposterous as it may sound to everyone here think about it for a second..

Clearly there are many who want a long range EV but do not want a large car or spend $70K to own one . Their lives are not pathetic that they need a fancy car to make them feel better/richer/important. Unless you really need to carry 5 large adults in your car it makes a lot of sense to buy a Bolt and save the $30,000 that can go towards more important things in life like family, their health and well being, kids tuition/college fund, solar panels, upgrade to HE appliances, better insulation etc.

So the fall in Tesla sales must surely be due to the upcoming Bolt. Unless any one thinks the car they drive will define them then in that case the sales drop had probably nothing to do with the Bolt. Want to know if the car a person drives defines them? Would you marry an ugly, nasty, rude person even though he/she drives a $110,000 BMW X6M or would you rather be with an attractive, kind, courteous and polite person even though all they could afford was a $1,100 1999 Jeep? All the people calling the Bolt ugly must be one hell of a catch, right? Remember, the Model X has been called much worse, on TMC included.

fall in Tesla sales in which universe? lol

 

[Zaxxon]

You're new here, so I'll be gentle. This sort of cheerleading is just as unhelpful as similar trolling on the short end. If you have concrete information with sourcing to share, please do.

Doesn't make sense

A full ship AP2.0 S&X already reached Asia a week ago

Yes this is it should be

production is no problem

They already built 80K by the end of Nov

26K is super easy

tesla can deliver 26K minimum and 34K maximum in Q4

 

[esk8mw]

Funny how a news article about the Bolt losing $9,000 gets treated like the gospel but the same news site has claimed that the Model 3 will not make any money, that Tesla loses between $4000 and $19000 per Model S sale,. The same author has not too long ago that Tesla spends $30,000 per battery pack and can't make any money selling the Model S. Funny how everything you agree with is suddenly a fact and everything you disagree with is from a person full of sh*t even when both opinions are from the same person.

So what if the Bolt loses money before ZEV credits? Anyone remember that the only two quarters Tesla made money was through ZEV credits? You think the company going all out to improve margins, the company that has voluntarily cut fleet sales by a quarter million to improve margins, the company that has doubled net income in 3 years, the company on track to make a record profit this year, is willingly throwing away $9,000 per sale? If they really want to sell a compliance car they could have just made more Spark EVs and send them to California, No point in spending $1B to develop an all new EV.

The drop in Model S and X deliveries must be due to the Chevy Bolt effect!
<Runs and hides. Let me know when it is safe to come out>

As preposterous as it may sound to everyone here think about it for a second..

Clearly there are many who want a long range EV but do not want a large car or spend $70K to own one . Their lives are not pathetic that they need a fancy car to make them feel better/richer/important. Unless you really need to carry 5 large adults in your car it makes a lot of sense to buy a Bolt and save the $30,000 that can go towards more important things in life like family, their health and well being, kids tuition/college fund, solar panels, upgrade to HE appliances, better insulation etc.

So the fall in Tesla sales must surely be due to the upcoming Bolt. Unless any one thinks the car they drive will define them then in that case the sales drop had probably nothing to do with the Bolt. Want to know if the car a person drives defines them? Would you marry an ugly, nasty, rude person even though he/she drives a $110,000 BMW X6M or would you rather be with an attractive, kind, courteous and polite person even though all they could afford was a $1,100 1999 Jeep? All the people calling the Bolt ugly must be one hell of a catch, right? Remember, the Model X has been called much worse, on TMC included.

This is so wrong it hurts. I won't waste my time refuting it but just note that demand is off the charts. Production may or may not be a very short term issue. Also, you seem mad at people who buy fancy cars.

 

[phigment]

This is so wrong it hurts. I won't waste my time refuting it but just note that demand is off the charts. Production may or may not be a very short term issue. Also, you seem mad at people who buy fancy cars.

I'm curious how the new AP2 hardware is being installed now. I'll bet the switch over on the assembly like took a bit of while causing down time. But if things have been redesigned to allow the robots to now install the wiring then there should be no problem picking up any slack due to down time.

 

[KLC13]

The drop in Model S and X deliveries must be due to the Chevy Bolt effect!
<Runs and hides. Let me know when it is safe to come out>

"I have to choose between a Model S and a Bolt"
- No One Ever

 

[vgrinshpun]

This is so wrong it hurts. I won't waste my time refuting it but just note that demand is off the charts. Production may or may not be a very short term issue. Also, you seem mad at people who buy fancy cars.

Yea, especially at those that are driven by stupid vanity to chose Model S over Ford Taurus SHO. I do not have time to dig it out, but that was the argument @MonroeSS was making a while ago.

 

[ggr]

Disgustingly bad reporting SEC criticism of Tesla Motors is another reason to shun the stock

Someone who uses Twitter (i.e. not me) should ask Elon to refute this garbage.

 

[Brando]

Robots seldom install wiring. Even the wiring plug-in/connections done by hand.
I am not saying you can't engineer it so that robots are used, I just haven't seen it before.

Anyone have video of wiring harness being installed by robots? Any experienced factory/assembly people that can comment?

 

[Roger t]

While the US delivery in Nov is low, the year to date sales number of 23571 MS and 14348 MX seems to be on track. In comparison, US sales is 22602 MS last year in the same time frame. That is 68% gain yoy.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I blame the manipulating short sellers .

I nominate this post for the pot shot of the month.

For those who would like to base their conclusions on some data, the OP is wrong, based on Fidelity data there is not much of a short activity going on today:

 

[techmaven]

Funny how a news article about the Bolt losing $9,000 gets treated like the gospel but the same news site has claimed that the Model 3 will not make any money, that Tesla loses between $4000 and $19000 per Model S sale,. The same author has not too long ago that Tesla spends $30,000 per battery pack and can't make any money selling the Model S. Funny how everything you agree with is suddenly a fact and everything you disagree with is from a person full of sh*t even when both opinions are from the same person.

You seem to have a lot issues surrounding other people's money and where they choose to spend it. In any case, I certainly didn't take the $9k as gospel. I think they lose something, but not that much. And my argument is that the ZEV credits specifically encourage the development of vehicles that would otherwise be money losers... it's the point. The issue isn't that they lose money on it, is that they aren't using the ZEV credit program to build vastly more Bolts. That GM is pussy footing around with production numbers that make the Bolt look like a compliance car. A much larger production volume drives the price of the EV components down such that it might not be a money loser. And as long as they are dealing with numbers like 30k or 50k annual production, it just doesn't compare to Tesla's upcoming scale. GM can come out before the Model 3 with a money loser and make up for it in truck and SUV sales, but Tesla cannot scale up a money loser. Tesla can't rely on ZEV credit revenue, so the Model 3 has to be financial viable without ZEV credits and eventually without the federal tax incentive too. And without pumping billions into a battery cell production, GM and others can't catch Tesla.

The point is that Tesla shouldn't be criticized for using the ZEV credit program and neither should GM or Nissan. But if GM wants to lead the transition to electrification as they have said in the past, this isn't enough of a commitment. Plus, a crappy econobox is really just not inspiring, GM.

 

[MitchJi]

New leaf-like nano surface could boost solar panel efficiency

We often look to nature for tips on how to build better tech, and few things in nature are better at harnessing the power of the sun than the leaves of ordinary plants. Researchers at the University of Oulu in Finland have discovered a way to build coatings that can mimic the surface of the leaves of plants, which could eventually lead to solar panels that lose less of their captured energy to reflection. And that could be very interesting to tech companies, including Tesla.

The new nano-scale surface can’t make solar panels receive any more light – but they can prevent more from bouncing off and failing to transfer their energy into a usable form. This could lead to an increase of up to 17 percent using the coating. And because of its size (researchers have created a coating with a thickness of only one millionth of a millimeter) and broad applicability, researchers say it can be applied to a number of materials, including glass and silicon, without altering their outward appearance.

Tesla unveiled its own glass solar roof tile earlier this year, and at the event during a Q&A with reporters after the main presentation, Tesla CEO Elon Musk noted that the company was pursuing tech that would do exactly what this Oulu research team has accomplished – enable panels to capture more of the light normally lost to reflection, in order to boost overall panel efficiency to beyond what’s possible even with traditional panels today.

The Oulu researchers suggest that even further increases in efficiency may be possible, since they can take the work they’ve done mimicking natural light-gathering surfaces and try to “exceed the results of evolution” by combining different applicable models.

Musk said that Tesla is working with current solar roof tile partner 3M on its future coatings, so this could be a process in development simultaneously in multiple organizations. But the tech, should it be commercialized, would do lots to help push the solar market forward, given the value of any significant efficiency increases in panel design.

 

[Brando]

SEC situation, I suspect, can't be answered in a tweet. FIRST go and read one of the SEC filings either an Annual Report or a 10-Q.
Try to understand GAAP vs non GAAP. Seems to me Tesla was always very clear when offering any non GAAP information (and I believe Elon's claim - in order to help investors get a better idea of company health and business model). This will also help you evaluate the press reports.

SEC filings
http://ir.tesla.com/sec.cfm?view=all

One small example of press industry reliability is the claim Elon made $1.6 Billion on sale of PayPal to eBay. Yes, the sale was for $1.6 billion and Elon's share was about $160 million. Which number have you heard/read? And of course Elon didn't start PayPal (you can google for yourself for this history/founding of PayPal).

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Interesting SP movement.

 

[mmd]

this is so stupid.

almost every quarter we hear the same people say the same thing on this board, seeking alfalfa, and various Wall St. outlets and every quarter Tesla is bascially on target. the missed quarters last year and this year were due to the ramp of the X, which Elon repeatedly highlighted prior to and during production of the X as the biggest factor of meeting quarterly targets.

demand for the S has greatly exceeded targets set by the company and by Wall St.

so dumb

Umm, no. Just skip the "pie" quarter and look at Q1 and Q2 of this year. There were pretty big misses.


But we should be happy, electrification of cars is still going strong. Look at these Volt numbers. I see a lot of the new Volts on roads here. They look pretty sleek too. GM is up 5%+ today, while TSLA is down ~4%.

 

[techmaven]

Umm, no. Just skip the "pie" quarter and look at Q1 and Q2 of this year. There were pretty big misses.


But we should be happy, electrification of cars is still going strong. Look at these Volt numbers. I see a lot of the new Volts on roads here. They look pretty sleek too. GM is up 5%+ today, while TSLA is down ~4%.
View attachment 204293

Hmm... what's wrong with the Volt? It can't seem to outsell a vehicle that is more than double its ASP. That's really not good.