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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I know I don't post a lot on here, but I feel like I totally understand why the share price is going down atm. Since most actual news based influences didn't have a lasting impact on the share price, it it, for my taste, save to assume that trading is currently based upon technicals. If you just look at those, we nearly broke out of the downward trend on Nov 28... nearly. But didn't. Then it bounced back down and I guess we will stay in the downward trend for now. It's been a rather steady decline for the last few days. A (small) upward movement is overdue though.
 
The nominal production capability was quoted by Elon to be "comfortably" at 2500 cars/week. I assume that this implies standard two shift operation - average of 16 hours, 5 days per week. It is limited by the capability of final assembly line.

The combined nominal capacity of two body welding lines is, however, much higher - about 3,700 cars per week.
I thought that they ran the line seven days a week. We need the phone number of the bartender that Andrea James used.
I'm curious how the new AP2 hardware is being installed now. I'll bet the switch over on the assembly like took a bit of while causing down time. But if things have been redesigned to allow the robots to now install the wiring then there should be no problem picking up any slack due to down time.

Robots seldom install wiring. Even the wiring plug-in/connections done by hand.
I am not saying you can't engineer it so that robots are used, I just haven't seen it before.

Anyone have video of wiring harness being installed by robots? Any experienced factory/assembly people that can comment?
In an interview Peter Hochholdinger said that one of the examples of designing the M3 for production efficiency is that they are working on being able have the harness installed by robots. The only thing I've seen on that being used with the MS-MX, was my speculation (which seems pretty safe) that after they get that working they'll probably incorporate that into the MS-MX plus my WAG that that could happen when they do the M3 reveal part 3 in combination with a HUD for all three cars, which I wouldn't bet on.
 
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I feel your frustration on this forum @Value Ev . Its just like us longs trying to argue our point on SA or to Spiegel.

Technically you are correct, these numbers are not a good sign for Q4. But we longs live on the hope for the better, just like you shorts live on the hope of a TSLA collapse.

Meh. I not in the least bit frustrated.
I am surprised and amused when investors look at facts and try to rationalize them away with hopey statements. Like "I did an analysis (good!) but I just need to add a fudge factor of 20% to make it work (amusing!). Can you imagine a short making that argument? "Well, based on my analysis the stock should be at 190, but if I fudge it by 20% I is now at $152! See, my short thesis is correct!"

BTW, I am not short TSLA. In fact I am now long due to the conversion of my SCTY shares.
At least one mutual fund I am in also is long TSLA>
 
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Umm, no. Just skip the "pie" quarter and look at Q1 and Q2 of this year. There were pretty big misses.


But we should be happy, electrification of cars is still going strong. Look at these Volt numbers. I see a lot of the new Volts on roads here. They look pretty sleek too. GM is up 5%+ today, while TSLA is down ~4%.
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you mean when they were having issues ramping the X as clearly spelled out by Elon both before and during this period?
 
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Interesting SP movement.

Indeed. Note to self: Remember to have dry powder on hand for future insideevs sales reports.

I don't understand how this is news. As @techmaven notes above, from the information I have seen Tesla did not begin any significant production for US orders until November, so the volume of US sales reported by insideevs in November is not meaningful. Not a criticism of insideevs, but just a function of how Tesla is rolling out sales to Europe and Asia this quarter.

All indications I have seen are for a stellar quarter in China (although more hard data on Q4 deliveries would be nice). I expect that along with European production has contributed to the longer than usual delay in getting to production for US orders.
 
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Indeed. Note to self: Remember to have dry powder on hand for future insideevs sales reports.

I don't understand how this is news. As @techmaven notes above, from the information I have seen Tesla did not begin any significant production for US orders until November, so the volume of US sales reported by insideevs in November is not meaningful. Not a criticism of insideevs, but just a function of how Tesla is rolling out sales to Europe and Asia this quarter.

All indications I have seen are for a stellar quarter in China (although more hard data on Q4 deliveries would be nice). I expect that along with European production has contributed to the longer than usual delay in getting to production for US orders.


There is no way tesla can miss 26K target this Q
 
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Umm, no. Just skip the "pie" quarter and look at Q1 and Q2 of this year. There were pretty big misses.


But we should be happy, electrification of cars is still going strong. Look at these Volt numbers. I see a lot of the new Volts on roads here. They look pretty sleek too. GM is up 5%+ today, while TSLA is down ~4%.
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GM is up 5% on an unexpected increase on light trucks and suv. With an increase in gas prices I am not sure how sustainable this is. Is Increase in oil price may not impact gas prices for a bit though as refined product levels or unexpectedly overstocked in the US right now as I understand it. Feels like buy the rumor sell the fact maybe?
 
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There is no way tesla can miss 26K target this Q

Must say I am curious to your sources or what you base your statements on.
You joined today and all 7 of your posts are very short extremely confident statements about production and deliveries.

Until now even hard to judge if you are serious or trolling. On this forum we like some context on information.
 
+ no Superchargers
+ looks like a small toaster
Looks more like a carnival ride kiddie car when compared to a Model S, but I'm sure there will be a market for it. Spiegelfecal has an agenda to confuse people about and denigrate Tesla. All the rebuttal arguments listed are true, but most people in the US have no idea what a real Tesla looks like let alone how it drives so he can cross link a Bolt to a S/X. Today I was at a Winery and people there were excited to see my Tesla in the parking lot. The woman asked if I paid $30,000 for it. ;-) Tesla needs to step up its communication and exhibiting game once the Model Ξ is close so people see what a Tesla really is. Until then lying scum will get away with whatever they are paid to say. In the meantime the manufacturers, dealers and API will do everything they can to prevent any Tesla presence in a majority of states. Hopefully the expanded Tesla Motors and Tesla Energy showrooms can educate people even if they they can't actually sell them a car.

Of course it's not a car, it's a Tesla!
 
I have a feeling Q4 is going to be rough even with a nice December. AP2 causing production/order changes, plus AP2 not active for 2-3 more weeks and 100 battery production still ramping up per EM. AP2 orders should be seeing a lot of deliveries this month into Q1 next year along with everyone buying to beat the supercharger grandfather rule. Q1 looks promising to me.
 
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