Thought I had seen that moniker a while ago despite his very few posts. Must have been before I started ignoring the more egregious trolls. Guess he took a long vacation. ;-)
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
racer26
Active Member
It *is* a metric. Its just not a very good yardstick for the quarterly/annual worldwide delivery number.
I Am Rolling
Member
Hi, guys.
Been reading ~250 last pages of this thread over the for a week or so (only thread I've visited. Found it when I googled "Tesla stock forum discussion").
I started investing money in stocks around 2 months ago, and the first stocks I bought was Tesla and SolarCity (almost purely out of emotional reasons since I really believe in the cause). After buying my shares, I started researching and learning about stocks and the market (I know this is backwards, but I've always wanted to invest money, so my plan was that if I started by investing, I'd stop being so lazy and actually start learning about how to make some money on the stock market).
So, that brings us to today.
Of course, I still have A LOT to learn and I really don't see myself as someone above basic knowledge. But one thing I've picked up is the saying: "A great company doesn't mean a great stock".
This is the feeling I have regarding TSLA. Am I right in thinking so?
Did I make a mistake in investing now, when the stock is so overpriced compared to the risk?
---
I also wanted to say that I really like the tone in this forum, always nice to find a civilized place on the internet.
And btw, not that it matters so much. I work at Volvo Cars in Sweden, hence the name I Am Rolling (=Volvo in Latin)
Btw2, the hell are you guys doing over there, electing Trump
Been reading ~250 last pages of this thread over the for a week or so (only thread I've visited. Found it when I googled "Tesla stock forum discussion").
I started investing money in stocks around 2 months ago, and the first stocks I bought was Tesla and SolarCity (almost purely out of emotional reasons since I really believe in the cause). After buying my shares, I started researching and learning about stocks and the market (I know this is backwards, but I've always wanted to invest money, so my plan was that if I started by investing, I'd stop being so lazy and actually start learning about how to make some money on the stock market).
So, that brings us to today.
Of course, I still have A LOT to learn and I really don't see myself as someone above basic knowledge. But one thing I've picked up is the saying: "A great company doesn't mean a great stock".
This is the feeling I have regarding TSLA. Am I right in thinking so?
Did I make a mistake in investing now, when the stock is so overpriced compared to the risk?
---
I also wanted to say that I really like the tone in this forum, always nice to find a civilized place on the internet.
And btw, not that it matters so much. I work at Volvo Cars in Sweden, hence the name I Am Rolling (=Volvo in Latin)
Btw2, the hell are you guys doing over there, electing Trump
BTW, list of new (not titled) Tesla Model S on EV-cpo.com (US + EU +HK) went down by 75 cars since midnight. At this rate all "demo" fleet and "inventory" Model S cars currently listed there will be sold-out in less than 2 weeks.
Last edited:
Great question. I don't remember specifically, but did a quick search and pulled up this post from @Papafox on November 1, just after the last insideEVs report. Seems prescient:
larmor
Active Member
I think all the articles are really only meant for finance people. The general public, and much more importantly kiddos know so much about tesla and the tesla brand. TM has created a strong brand identity-alot like apple. The mere 300k deposits for an M3 speaks volumes. Driving an MX around, i get nods all the time and slow downs. Is that a scientific analysis of brand awareness-no. But i certainly didn't get any approval driving a GL550.
If any one wants to jump ship, there are many waiting in line to get on board
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Just wanted to thank Jonathan Hewitt and EINSsv for being my greatest fans. Your loyalty has not gone unnoticed
I am rolling, welcome to the forum. If you stay in TSLA long, you will realize that this stock is a roller coaster ride. Every year we are way up and way down, depending upon the present mood of the market. Unfortunately, many new investors to TSLA abandon the stock when one of these downturns happens, only to see it recover not much later. What I would suggest is to keep an eye on the fundamentals of the company: how well is it doing? We saw gaap profits and significant cash flow from operations in Q3 and Q4 looks like it could be good too. All the feedback we're getting from Tesla so far is that Model 3 is on track for serious production beginning in second half of 2017. The various sections of the gigafactory are completed or under construction and as they are completed Tesla Energy will be greatly expanding its volume. If you see serious evidence of any of these fundamentals changing for the worse, then you might reevaluate your position in the stock, but if the fundamentals stay on track, then tighten up your seatbelt and weather the dip.Hi, guys.
Been reading ~250 last pages of this thread over the for a week or so (only thread I've visited. Found it when I googled "Tesla stock forum discussion").
I started investing money in stocks around 2 months ago, and the first stocks I bought was Tesla and SolarCity (almost purely out of emotional reasons since I really believe in the cause). After buying my shares, I started researching and learning about stocks and the market (I know this is backwards, but I've always wanted to invest money, so my plan was that if I started by investing, I'd stop being so lazy and actually start learning about how to make some money on the stock market).
So, that brings us to today.
Of course, I still have A LOT to learn and I really don't see myself as someone above basic knowledge. But one thing I've picked up is the saying: "A great company doesn't mean a great stock".
This is the feeling I have regarding TSLA. Am I right in thinking so?
Did I make a mistake in investing now, when the stock is so overpriced compared to the risk?
---
I also wanted to say that I really like the tone in this forum, always nice to find a civilized place on the internet.
And btw, not that it matters so much. I work at Volvo Cars in Sweden, hence the name I Am Rolling (=Volvo in Latin)
Btw2, the hell are you guys doing over there, electing Trump
So, looking at this further since this is now clearly a thing.
From the Q3 shareholder letter, 25k guidance. 5,500 vehicles in transit. With full on regional allocation as we can see in the delivery threads, that tends to maximize deliveries. Deliveries in Europe, Asia, and U.S. are assumed in the first month to be out of the 5,500 overhang. That's about 2,400 in US + Europe plus I'm assuming 2,000 in Asia, mostly China. Tesla builds 3 week's worth of production in October and beginning of November aimed for Europe and Asia at 2k a week, which assumes a plant shutdown from Oct 1 to Oct 11. That's 6,000 vehicles which are just starting to arrive and will arrive through December. Then 7 weeks of production for the U.S, all AP2 at 2,100/week. The first vehicles are shipped by rail mostly, some by truck, the mostly by truck, then all by truck. That's 14,700 in the U.S. which means a total of 26,200. That's giving 1 week of production not counted between November and December.
From the Q3 shareholder letter, 25k guidance. 5,500 vehicles in transit. With full on regional allocation as we can see in the delivery threads, that tends to maximize deliveries. Deliveries in Europe, Asia, and U.S. are assumed in the first month to be out of the 5,500 overhang. That's about 2,400 in US + Europe plus I'm assuming 2,000 in Asia, mostly China. Tesla builds 3 week's worth of production in October and beginning of November aimed for Europe and Asia at 2k a week, which assumes a plant shutdown from Oct 1 to Oct 11. That's 6,000 vehicles which are just starting to arrive and will arrive through December. Then 7 weeks of production for the U.S, all AP2 at 2,100/week. The first vehicles are shipped by rail mostly, some by truck, the mostly by truck, then all by truck. That's 14,700 in the U.S. which means a total of 26,200. That's giving 1 week of production not counted between November and December.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Because he will be great for America and not so much a charity for the rest of the world.Btw2, the hell are you guys doing over there, electing Trump
Anyways Welcome!
racer26
Active Member
Hi, guys.
Been reading ~250 last pages of this thread over the for a week or so (only thread I've visited. Found it when I googled "Tesla stock forum discussion").
I started investing money in stocks around 2 months ago, and the first stocks I bought was Tesla and SolarCity (almost purely out of emotional reasons since I really believe in the cause). After buying my shares, I started researching and learning about stocks and the market (I know this is backwards, but I've always wanted to invest money, so my plan was that if I started by investing, I'd stop being so lazy and actually start learning about how to make some money on the stock market).
So, that brings us to today.
Of course, I still have A LOT to learn and I really don't see myself as someone above basic knowledge. But one thing I've picked up is the saying: "A great company doesn't mean a great stock".
This is the feeling I have regarding TSLA. Am I right in thinking so?
Did I make a mistake in investing now, when the stock is so overpriced compared to the risk?
---
I also wanted to say that I really like the tone in this forum, always nice to find a civilized place on the internet.
And btw, not that it matters so much. I work at Volvo Cars in Sweden, hence the name I Am Rolling (=Volvo in Latin)
Btw2, the hell are you guys doing over there, electing Trump
While I agree a great company doesn't necessarily make for a great stock, I don't believe that applies to TSLA.
I disagree with your assertion that TSLA is overpriced compared to the risk. Could you elaborate on why you feel that way?
If you ask me, TSLA is wildly undervalued to reasonable expectations of its future. The time for it being overvalued was during the 3Q13-3Q14 days, when MS had just started delivering in quantity, and no MX in sight, let alone M3, but we were seeing similar SP to today.
Today, we have major deals for PowerPacks going live, PowerWalls expected to ship in volume in around a month's time, Model 3 and Solar Roof expected in 6-9 months time, Tesla Network sometime next year (pending regulatory approval), and a growing fleet of automotive products including MY, Semi, Minibus, Pickup, Roadster2.0, and presumably more nobody knows about yet.
As of 3Q16, TSLA is selling about 100k cars annualized (~25k 3Q16 * 4), at an ASP somewhere in the neighborhood of $100k and margins approaching 30% - Thats $10B/yr of sales looking at cars available today alone. There is an additional ~$15B of Model3's on preorder, and an estimated $21B or so targeted annual production of Model3's starting in 2018. Elon's been quoted many times as saying that he believes the market size for PowerWall and PowerPack is as large or larger than for the cars. All of that still ignoring the Solar Roof, expected to be cheaper than traditional roofing, even before you account for its power production, and Tesla Network, which will bring profits to TSLA at essentially zero cost and risk. TSLA market cap as of this writing is $29.27B.
EDIT: On the risk side - where is it? I don't see *any* risk, really. Management tells us there is enough capital to launch M3 without a raise, and everything else doesn't matter at that point.
Even the MS note that came out last week suggested a price target of $242, assuming a big fat gooseegg from M3 until 4Q18, a gooseegg from SCTY (which is already > 0, so that doesn't even make sense), AND a gooseegg from Powerwall/Powerpack, AND a gooseegg from Solar Roof.
All of those possible negatives are SO remote that I can't see even one of them happening, never mind all of them simultaneously.
Last edited:
Moderator Input:
Welcome to the forum, I Am Rolling. Although others are continually trying to thwart the forum rules, any politicizing of discussions is absolutely forbidden. The only exception is one that otherwise is laser-focused on the thread at hand (in this case, TSLA stock price).
You will always be tempted by others to join the Dark Side. Do not. Or, as native English speakers might say - Acceptance Is Futile.
Welcome to the forum, I Am Rolling. Although others are continually trying to thwart the forum rules, any politicizing of discussions is absolutely forbidden. The only exception is one that otherwise is laser-focused on the thread at hand (in this case, TSLA stock price).
You will always be tempted by others to join the Dark Side. Do not. Or, as native English speakers might say - Acceptance Is Futile.
Oooh thanks for the detail. And with HK being RHD, they have to push the RHD units while the factory is still running RHD production.
Do we have a full list of these? We can expect a big push in each country at the specific time, since Tesla's done this before.
Last edited:
I Am Rolling
Member
Yes, it is indeed a roller coaster ride. And being new to the stock market, I'm not liking it.
But the plan is to stay long, or go out now and come back (to stay long) when we are getting closer to M3.
I have no doubt that Tesla will produce quality products to satisfy the customers.
When I think of risk, I think about how many hurdles we still have to get through to convince people that electric cars are the way to go.
And how the oil companies will do everything in their power to stop the evolution to clean energy (am I going to be regarded as the tinfoil-hat guy or do you guys feel the same?).
Another risk is production.
I started my career at Volvo on the assembly line and I work as an engineer now. Seen many phases of production. Man, when things go wrong, they go really wrong. For long periods of time, you can't produce the amount of cars that's been planned, and then you lower the goals.
But one thing that calms me in that regards are quotes from Elon about how he's understood the importance of "building the machine that builds the machine".
I think the world needs the leader of the free world to champion the fight against global warming more than giving out charity.
Thanks for the welcome.
Ha! You're right.
But that wasn't really my point. Didn't want to start a political discussion regarding immigration and such, my criticism of Trump (in this forum) is him talking about global warming as a hoax, that can't be good for Tesla (not saying it's necessarily very bad, but it's not good either).
It's def initely a hard problem. Hochholdinger strongly implied that they were trying to design the wiring harness on Model 3 to be robot-installed. This also implies that the harness on Model X is still human-installed.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
