Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[DaveT]

MODERATOR NOTE FOR ALL:

For 2017, we are going to have TWO threads to take this thread's place. The 2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action is STRICTLY & EXCLUSIVELY for market-themed discussions. All general discussions regarding Tesla that presumably are of interest to the investment community are to be confined to the 2017 Investor Roundtable: General Discussion thread.

These two threads will open for posts whenever I get up on 1 January. Or maybe just after we ring in the New Year. Until then, please continue to post on this, the 2016 Short-Term thread, which will shutter at the same time as the two new ones open.

I don't understand the difference between the two new threads. Can you explain more fully?

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

My prediction for 2017 is that $TSLA reaches an all time high very quickly. To have the ultimate portfolio, you would have to invest in dirty oil companies as they are set to take off. Dirty&Clean is the theme.

4 stocks for oil’s final bull market

 

[CatB]

MODERATOR NOTE FOR ALL:

For 2017, we are going to have TWO threads to take this thread's place. The 2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action is STRICTLY & EXCLUSIVELY for market-themed discussions. All general discussions regarding Tesla that presumably are of interest to the investment community are to be confined to the 2017 Investor Roundtable: General Discussion thread.

These two threads will open for posts whenever I get up on 1 January. Or maybe just after we ring in the New Year. Until then, please continue to post on this, the 2016 Short-Term thread, which will shutter at the same time as the two new ones open.

And thank you SO much for being such a patient, intolerant-when-you-need-to-be, amiable moderator - I can't imagine the dedication, time, energy and um, sense of humor that requires!

 

[STARR X]

Why is everyone assuming 2k weekly production. I have been of the mind every time they shut down the line that it is reoptimized for increase production speed.

Also is the lack of EAP realease going to hurt earnings?

My family and I toured the factory on December 19th. As we pulled into Tesla's parking lot, a shift was ending (a ton of cars leaving) and when we took the tour, it seemed like one line was not running and maintenance was being done on it. The two questions I asked were, #1 how many cars are being produced a week & how many shifts are run. The person running the tour said 2000 cars per week and then there are two different groups of employees working. 1 on a 2 shift schedule and an a 2nd on a 3 shift schedule. The 3rd shift is a maintenance shift.

 

[3Victoria]

Happy New Year to you all, and thanks to the kind and wise moderator for his hard work.

 

[MitchJi]

Also is the lack of EAP release going to hurt earnings?

I think what they might do if the full release is not ready is release part of the features, in order to capture the income.

 

[AlMc]

FF to ~43.00 mins in this past week's Talking Tesla podcast

 

[1kEE]

MODERATOR NOTE FOR ALL:

For 2017, we are going to have TWO threads to take this thread's place. The 2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action is STRICTLY & EXCLUSIVELY for market-themed discussions. All general discussions regarding Tesla that presumably are of interest to the investment community are to be confined to the 2017 Investor Roundtable: General Discussion thread.

These two threads will open for posts whenever I get up on 1 January. Or maybe just after we ring in the New Year. Until then, please continue to post on this, the 2016 Short-Term thread, which will shutter at the same time as the two new ones open.

I'll miss having one thread that I can check on a regular basis and see 99% of the relevant info at the expense of having to glance over a few useless posts....

 

[AlMc]

I'll miss having one thread that I can check on a regular basis and see 99% of the relevant info at the expense of having to glance over a few useless posts....

This has been the dilemma over the last couple years. Robert Boston tried to make four threads two years ago...devolved to one.

Moderating/moving posts to the appropriate threads was like 'herding cats'......

 

[1kEE]

My prediction for 2017 is that $TSLA reaches an all time high very quickly. To have the ultimate portfolio, you would have to invest in dirty oil companies as they are set to take off. Dirty&Clean is the theme.

4 stocks for oil’s final bull market

I have been holding some COP and XOM for over a year now and added CHK recently.... thinking of an exit sometime in 2017.

 

[racer26]

I'll miss having one thread that I can check on a regular basis and see 99% of the relevant info at the expense of having to glance over a few useless posts....

Truly, I think what ought to happen is the general discussion thread takes the place of this one for our everyday use, and as newsworthy items come up, someone should propose the news item only gets duplicated to the more-pure thread

 

[bicycle]

For 2017, we are going to have TWO threads to take this thread's place

Thank you!

 

[1kEE]

This has been the dilemma over the last couple years. Robert Boston tried to make four threads two years ago...devolved to one.

Moderating/moving posts to the appropriate threads was like 'herding cats'......

Haha, herding cats! Reality is we will probably converge on one dominant thread again.

I appreciate the moderators efforts to segregate posts based on criteria, but.... We all engage in long, medium and short term strategies that combine a lot of different factors. Macros, long-term fundamentals, medium term and short term all play together. Being able to think, talk and analyze all those factors together is what makes this work.

Edit: my two favorite trading threads here are this one and:

Daily TSLA Trading Charts

 

[mmd]

I feel bad for those that converted their M3 reservations to MS/MX before the hardware switchover. In my mind I still see a M3 as the best investment one can make in tesla if they own less than 1,000,000 USD in stock. By the math of a number of studies a fully self driving model 3 could bring in 60k a year in revenue, order 2 and you are potentially looking at 1,000,000 USD in revenue on a 2,000 USD investment over 8 years. 1 million in stock would have to appreciate by 100% over those 8 years to get the same ROI.

I am putting alot of faith in the taxi service, but if you think of it as taking all the profits that 2 NYC cabs would bring in without having to pay 3 guys to drive them 24 hours a day 7 days a week it makes a lot of sense. Owning a piece of the future automated economy privately (not like McDonalds is going to let people buy the burger making machines for them and charge them wages for it) seems like a big opportunity.

I don't want to puncture your day dreams. But you may want to read up on Porter's five forces, particularly the one called 'Threat of new entrants' ( 'barriers to entry').
Porter's five forces analysis - Wikipedia

 

[Green Pete]

I don't want to puncture your day dreams. But you may want to read up on Porter's five forces, particularly the one called 'Threat of new entrants' ( 'barriers to entry').
Porter's five forces analysis - Wikipedia

Let's say your right and the profit margin on self driving cabs is pushed down to an average of 1 dollar an hour. 20 hours a day (four hours for charging and whatever) 10 months a year (2 months downtime for maintenance and what have you) comes to a profit of 6k a year. If payments are less than 500 a month the car pays for itself with profit.

Now, I drove Uber for awhile to see what it was like. I averaged 17 dollars an hour profit. Let's say self driving cars are 1/4 that (cheaper rates to get market share) so 4.25 dollars an hour works out to 25,500 USD a year per car in profit. Car pays itself off in 1.5 years.

You see many other companies looking to hit this market in the next 1.5 years (or even 5 years)

 

[Xpert]

I agree. What we're seeing today is positioning prior to the Q4 delivery number release. Lots of traders are way up after the rise from 180ish and have taken some money off the table prior to the announcement. While I am bullish on Q4 delivery numbers, I still took some of my shorter-term calls off the table at big gains in the last few days, so as to hedge my bet. Other investors have done similarly, I susepect. Technicals will take a back seat to fundamentals when the numbers are released on Tuesday, and Wednesday's gigafactory event is likely to positively affect the SP. One cannot reasonably assess the state of the uptrend until well into next week.

You're absolutely right a lot of us took some $ off the table me included. After years trading tesla I finally learned to sell some when higher and buy more when lower and keeping some dry powder before a major event. Wish I had done this better past year.

 

[moe.salih]

Elon tweeted: Resolving an Autopilot HW2 bug that shows up when booting from a subzero cold-soak. If that fix works, software will start uploading tmrw.

 

[Chris Fox]

Such little confidence in Tesla? You really think tesla can't meet its guidance? Couple things to note

1. Last Q, 5500 Tesla's were on trains and trucks on way to costumers that weren't counted because Tesla only counts a sale when the costumer takes the keys. That means Tesla only needs to produce about 1500 cars a week to make a beat and it was producing 2000+ cars a week during Q3.

2. Musk is a very readable guy. Before the horrible release of Q1 and Q2 numbers, and immediately after space X explosion, Musk was noticeably different on Twitter. Go look at Musks Twitter account, is he acting like a guy who's about to miss annual guidance?

 

[Green Pete]

Such little confidence in Tesla? You really think tesla can't meet its guidance? Couple things to note

1. Last Q, 5500 Tesla's were on trains and trucks on way to costumers that weren't counted because Tesla only counts a sale when the costumer takes the keys. That means Tesla only needs to produce about 1500 cars a week to make a beat and it was producing 2000+ cars a week during Q3.

2. Musk is a very readable guy. Before the horrible release of Q1 and Q2 numbers, and immediately after space X explosion, Musk was noticeably different on Twitter. Go look at Musks Twitter account, is he acting like a guy who's about to miss annual guidance?

If you assume the cars produced in the final two weeks will not be delivered in 2016 still need average of 2000 a week.

That being said I agree. I think they beyond nailed it based on his attitude.

 

[Krugerrand]

Thanks.

I see in the postings that @Krugerrand is suggesting that we don't know IF the factory was closed for two weeks in October as some have suggested.

Can he/she (or anyone else) provide additional information that might point us to a correct conclusion: Open the whole month? closed one week? closed two weeks.

I feel a need to remind people that what is said on ERs about the 'future', immediate, distant or in between, is not static. It's their best guess. It's their intentions. Their plan. Sugar happens and those plans, intentions and best guesses can change and do change. They expected to shut down for two weeks during Q4. They might not have. They might have only shut down for 1 week and 3 days, or 2 weeks and 4 days, or 3 days, or not at all, or, or, or.

Two weeks in October? I say it didn't happen. There's been no evidence that it happened. There are people on this forum who drive by the factory regularly. People flying drones over it. People taking tours. If the parking lot was empty or mostly empty for a two week period, we'd have heard about it.