Clearly not.
Natural gas from EIA:
July 2020: +141.7MW
June 2020: +166.6MW.
May 2020: +2480.4MW.
Coal:
July 2020: 0.0MW
June 2020: -965.5MW
May 2020: -1294.1MW
Natural gas is still being added.
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Clearly not.
Natural gas from EIA:
July 2020: +141.7MW
June 2020: +166.6MW.
May 2020: +2480.4MW.
Coal:
July 2020: 0.0MW
June 2020: -965.5MW
May 2020: -1294.1MW
Natural gas is still being added.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I mean......where to even begin with this one?
Chevron bets on Middle East gas riches and reconciliation
Chevron bets on Middle East gas riches and reconciliation
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Yeah, Wow, just wow.
I think Chevron hasn't yet learned the law of holes:
"if you find yourself in a hole, stop digging"
(I love Wikipedia
)
Hey, Chevron should buy up the $40B Southern Gas Corridor project for pennies on the dollar. That would be fun.
This $40 Billion Pipeline Project Risks Becoming A Stranded Asset | OilPrice.com
Emissions and Coal Have Peaked as Covid-19 Saves 2.5 Years of Emissions, Accelerates Energy Transition | BloombergNEF
So depressing. BNEF's outlook is that oil demand peaks in 2035 and does not return to 2018 levels until 2050. And of course, this blows out the climate with 3.3 degrees of change.
This outlook is so bad, Greta's granddaughter will one day scream at her, "How could you! Why didn't you do anything to stop this?"
So depressing. BNEF's outlook is that oil demand peaks in 2035 and does not return to 2018 levels until 2050. And of course, this blows out the climate with 3.3 degrees of change.
This outlook is so bad, Greta's granddaughter will one day scream at her, "How could you! Why didn't you do anything to stop this?"
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Crude demand has probably already peaked, even done of the oil majors have come out saying it'll likely peak around 2030. Unclear why BNEF keeps pushing this idea it's gonna be 2035. That's extremely unlikely, borderline impossible.
US demand peaked in 2018.
China is rapidly outlawing internal combustion.
Europe continues to install renewables and adopt EVs at an insane rate.
Just this week Japan stepped up their goals and will be carbon neutral by 2050.
Australia looks like it'll be half solar by 2030.
India(the last best hope for oil) is rapidly coming around.
Is the idea that BNEF wants to create more urgency to drive action? Unclear, but I wish everyone would just live in reality.
Yeah, I don't believe this scenario. I think clean tech and its adoption is advancing more than even a scenario were politician sit on their asses for 3 decades.
I don't buy the strategy that bad scenarios create more urgency to drive action. Psychologically they are discouraging and promote a sense of hopelessness or futility. Furthermore, such scenarios tend to exaggerate the economic costs transitioning to both cleaner and cheaper energy sources. There actually is a huge opportunity cost with delaying the scale up clean tech. Most of this tech has learning curve rates in excess of 15% cost decline per doubling. The longer you delay each doubling, the more you pay in the short run for tech that will rightly become obsolete. The whole line that fighting climate change will cost too much and take too long is exactly in the climate denier's playbook. They know that such messages will make a lot of people just throw up their hands and do nothing.
BNEF should know better. My worry is that they have been co-opted by the fossil industries.
Tesla Is On Track To Deliver 1 Million EVs In 2021 | OilPrice.com
Wow, it is so refreshing to see OilPrice.com post an article that simply describes the facts of what Tesla is up to. It seems that Tesla is finally getting some respect for what they've accomplished. Yes, Tesla is on track to deliver 1M vehicles in 2021, but most of us bulls would be happy with just 840k. Cheers!
Wow, it is so refreshing to see OilPrice.com post an article that simply describes the facts of what Tesla is up to. It seems that Tesla is finally getting some respect for what they've accomplished. Yes, Tesla is on track to deliver 1M vehicles in 2021, but most of us bulls would be happy with just 840k. Cheers!
Super power: Here’s how to get to 100pct wind, solar and storage by 2030
Seba goes solar-wind-batteries!
Seba goes solar-wind-batteries!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Gate's "Breakthrough Energy" initiative is pushing the same narrative. Been yapping about the "green premium" we need to accept in order to fight climate change. So annoying.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Gates wants people to pay for his high cost nuclear. Not going to happen.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
When a system generates hyperabundant electricity at a marginal cost close to zero, the potential for new value creation is limitless. This isn’t a problem of overcapacity. This is a Super Power solution.”
It is also why the likes of Australian Renewable Energy Agency chief executive Darren Miller talk of “700 per cent renewables” as a target. All are based on the principal of surplus wind and solar, with the super power being used variously for industry, transport, buildings, increased manufacturing and export, either through cables or a transportable hydrogen fuel such as ammonia.
Many critics have pointed to the value erosion potential of solar and wind. They have made it out to be some sort of problem. Seba rightly points to value erosion as an opportunity. It is a huge opportunity for buyers of energy. Seba also points to monopoly utilities as a barrier. Basically, you want a diversity of buyers to have access to bulk power prices. The utilities act largely as a monopoly middleman between buyers and sellers, so the cheap prices do not easily pass through. Solar and batteries, however, are easily located behind-the-meter where the self-consumer does not pay the utility. This will force change on the monopoly model of utilities. Long-term dirt cheap power will spark creative new uses.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Oil Investments Are Drying Up As Crude Demand Falters | OilPrice.com
Thirty-five percent: this is the size of the spending cuts oil and gas companies are likely to have made this year in response to the effects that the coronavirus pandemic is having on demand, according to the International Energy Agency. And this is just the spending slump in upstream oil and gas. This is just part of a wider trend of investment cuts in the energy industry, according to the IEA, which earlier this month published an update of its World Energy Investment report, first released in late spring. At the time, some thought we were seeing the worst of the pandemic. They were, apparently, wrong.
Thirty-five percent: this is the size of the spending cuts oil and gas companies are likely to have made this year in response to the effects that the coronavirus pandemic is having on demand, according to the International Energy Agency. And this is just the spending slump in upstream oil and gas. This is just part of a wider trend of investment cuts in the energy industry, according to the IEA, which earlier this month published an update of its World Energy Investment report, first released in late spring. At the time, some thought we were seeing the worst of the pandemic. They were, apparently, wrong.
Interesting article on using renewably-generated hydrogen as a giant battery:
An $11 trillion global hydrogen energy boom is coming. Here's what could trigger it
But other elements of the timeline aren't as aggressive as that first part:
Got to wonder, if they have a 150 GWh hydrogen supply on-site by 2025, why will it take 20 years to decide to use it? It's hard to know whether all this is really, you know, real. Or just nice-looking plans on paper.
An $11 trillion global hydrogen energy boom is coming. Here's what could trigger it
Scheduled to be operational by 2025, the first phase of the ACES [Advanced Clean Energy Storage] project will provide 150,000 MWh of renewable power storage capacity, nearly 150 times the current U.S. installed lithium-ion battery storage base, according to [Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems].
...
“The formation has the potential to create up to 100 caverns, each one capable of holding 150,000 MWh of energy,” says Browning. “It would take 40,000 shipping containers of batteries to store that much energy in each cavern.”
...
“The formation has the potential to create up to 100 caverns, each one capable of holding 150,000 MWh of energy,” says Browning. “It would take 40,000 shipping containers of batteries to store that much energy in each cavern.”
But other elements of the timeline aren't as aggressive as that first part:
In the ACES project, some will power the adjacent Intermountain Power Project, a coal-fired plant operated by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power that will be converted to hydrogen and natural gas, which produces almost half the carbon dioxide of coal, by 2025. It’s scheduled to be all green hydrogen by 2045.
Got to wonder, if they have a 150 GWh hydrogen supply on-site by 2025, why will it take 20 years to decide to use it? It's hard to know whether all this is really, you know, real. Or just nice-looking plans on paper.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Looks like it's basically a NG (dirty) plant with plans to someday maybe add green hydrogen.
engine ear
Member
The timing is a function of the value it provides and the time it takes to prove out a new technology.
Based on modeling I have done, in the sunny desert southwest solar + li ion can cost effectively provide 95%+ of electricity. But getting all the way to 100% is hard.
For the final few percent a long duration storage technology, one with a substantially lower $/kWh of storage than li ion is helpful. Li ion is unlikely to drop below $25/kWh. Hydrogen is one possible candidate for long duration storage. Underground hydrogen storage is already below $1/kWh. Hydrogen is not a good replacement for li ion, but it is a good complement for it as we hit the limits of li ion storage.
This project is an important step in making progress on the long duration storage problem. The ability to burn natural gas helps reduce risk for the project developer which reduces financing costs. I am ok with that. It helps get this project built. I don’t know of any other long duration storage projects targeting 100+ GWh of storage.
Traders Look To Store Diesel At Sea As Second Wave Hits Demand | OilPrice.com
Hey, anybody wanna buy a tanker load of diesel?
Covid could stall demand in Europe. The is bad for crude demand, but refiner margins have got to be sucking right now.
Hey, anybody wanna buy a tanker load of diesel?
Covid could stall demand in Europe. The is bad for crude demand, but refiner margins have got to be sucking right now.
Welcome to our thread. Tell us about your model. I'm interested in how you get to 95%.
My own view on hydrogen is that before it gets used for generating power, we will want it to supply the heating and industrial gases markets. So this gets the electrolyzer fleet to a multi TW scale. At that scale a lot of the seasonal balancing needed for ordinary power consumption will be provided by curtailing electrolyzer production. This would mitigate the need for long-term electricity storage, albeit non-power gas markets will need long-term storage. A caveat here is that not all regions will be economical producers of hydrogen, so there is some scope for an export market. Net hydrogen importers may well generate power from hydrogen, but net exporters not so much.
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