sleepyhead's Q2 Earnings Preview

[blakegallagher]

I just looked at Tesla's Q2 numbers and for pure auto numbers excluding any credits or development services Tesla got:

$497,347 of revenue and $430,001 in cost of revenue for a gross margin of 10.3% on pure autos, 13.5% on autos + GHG/CAFE credits, and 22% including ZEV credits.

I modeled in :

$484,000 of revenue and $430,560 in cost of revenue for a gross margin of 10.0% on pure autos, 13.1% on autos + GHG/CAFE credits, and 23.1% including ZEV credits

I overstated ZEV by $11 million, since it looks like market prices for ZEV credits are coming down, hence ZEV revenue will drop off quickly as predicted by Elon on Q1 CC.

That is remarkable ... nicely done.

 

[Larken]

I have been looking on ir.teslamotors.com for the reply from the ER but cannot find it. Does anyone have a link to the reply? Thanks and congrats everyone!:biggrin: Viva Tesla!

 

[blakegallagher]

If you go Tesla - Investors Overview you have to register for it. Its on the bottom right part of the page and its labeled

Tesla Motors, Inc. Second Quarter 2013 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call


Its right above the shareholder letter

 

[deonb]

I hope that at least one person decided to buy some shares and made some money based on my analysis. That makes all the work worthwhile.

I did.

I held up your analysis as the truth (still have that spreadsheet open from this morning!), and compared it to the article after article that came out today stating the old numbers, and when we hit $135 today, I went 'screw it':

I closed out my safety 15% put position that I planned to go into ER with, and changed everything to calls instead. Those puts would have been virtually completely lost going into tomorrow. (100, 120, 125, 130, 135, 142 Aug 9th & 17th).

 

[blakegallagher]

I did.

I held up your analysis as the truth (still have that spreadsheet open from this morning!), and compared it to the article after article that came out today stating the old numbers, and when we hit $135 today, I went 'screw it':

I closed out my safety 15% put position that I planned to go into ER with, and changed everything to calls instead. Those puts would have been virtually completely lost going into tomorrow. (100, 120, 125, 130, 135, 142 Aug 9th & 17th).

Wow .... nicely done !!!

 

[Causalien]

Yeah it helped.

I had a huge vertical going in(120, 150), with only half of the upper call sold. The plan was to sell the other half nearer earnings and come out with no risk exposure at all, but I didn't do that.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

I did.

I held up your analysis as the truth (still have that spreadsheet open from this morning!), and compared it to the article after article that came out today stating the old numbers, and when we hit $135 today, I went 'screw it':

I closed out my safety 15% put position that I planned to go into ER with, and changed everything to calls instead. Those puts would have been virtually completely lost going into tomorrow. (100, 120, 125, 130, 135, 142 Aug 9th & 17th).

This is essentially the same thing I did. Once the stock fell so much pre-earnings, I felt like my put firewall had already captured a ton of value compared to my worst case expectation post earnings. So I dumped those and put some of the profits into calls on the theory that I was prepared to write off the insurance money anyways, so why not bet it on what I really felt would be a strong report, lol

 

[sleepyhead]

This is essentially the same thing I did. Once the stock fell so much pre-earnings, I felt like my put firewall had already captured a ton of value compared to my worst case expectation post earnings. So I dumped those and put some of the profits into calls on the theory that I was prepared to write off the insurance money anyways, so why not bet it on what I really felt would be a strong report, lol

Great job in all of your research CO, it has really been beneficial to me and everyone else on this forum.

What is your view for the next few trading days? I feel like the stock has some room to run only because:

1. It traded at $145.86 before ER, and with a good report there has to be room (theoretically) for at least 20% upside from that number.
2. A lot of weak longs cashed out and new shorts came in over the last two trading days prior to ER.
3. Institutional money might start piling in.

 

[deonb]

Gift to sleepyhead

What do you give to someone for a job well done?

Well, more work of course!


I have translated all the Q2 earnings report statements into an Excel spreadsheet and changed numbers to formulas where I could. Triple-checked the numbers. Should come in handy now that we know how lease accounting will work.

You're welcome to use this for any purpose. May I suggest modeling Q3 .

View attachment Tesla Q2 2013.xlsx

 

[destroid]

Thanks again guys. In addition to the great research here, some of the best info has been pointers to official Tesla info/interviews. Careful reading makes it clear that conservative guidance and great execution is going to keep this company strong for many years.

I bought a few shares during Q1 and missed most of the big run-up post Q1 before getting into options trading. So far post Q2 is going well and my Model S test drive is scheduled for the weekend. Most positions were centered around Sept 150 calls as I thought this was achievable, even with a modest Q2.

It's been a wild ride this week but sleepyhead's (and many others) spot on analysis of Q2 gave me the confidence to hold my positions and accumulate more in the face of drops like Wednesday pre Q2 earnings. Now it's time to buy more stock and LEAPs for the long game...