SLS - On the Scent of Inevitable Capitulation

[Nikxice]

I'm sure NASA, certainly Boeing, would diminish the significance of any reports concerning the eventual demise of Space Launch System. Others would argue that the only major milestone remaining is etching the tombstone, September 14, 2011 to _______ __ 20__. I came across a couple of revealing quotes from NASA's associate administrator Stephen Jurczyk, "I think our view is that if those commercial capabilities come online, we will eventually retire the government system, and just move to a buying launch capacity on those [rockets],". Also stated, "We haven't really engaged SpaceX on how we'd work together on BFR, and eventually get to a Mars mission — yet," Jurczyk said of NASA's leadership. "My guess is that it's coming." More details have been published here.
NASA will retire its new mega-rocket if SpaceX or Blue Origin can safely launch its own powerful rockets

 

[djgarrett21]

Boeing has done a pretty poor job managing SLS. They aren't helped by NASA's restrictive development requirements and policies. Lots of blame to go around but commercial companies like SpaceX and Blue origin are showing what can be done in the absence of heavy handed bureaucracy.

I know quite a few people who started questioning their job security after watching Falcon Heavy launch. IF BFR or New Glenn live up to expectations, there will be a titanic shift in the launch vehicle business.

 

[ecarfan]

Certain members of Congress are going to strongly resist any funding decreases for the SLS program. It’s not just up to the NASA administrators.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I'm sure NASA, certainly Boeing, would diminish the significance of any reports concerning the eventual demise of Space Launch System. Others would argue that the only major milestone remaining is etching the tombstone, September 14, 2011 to _______ __ 20__. I came across a couple of revealing quotes from NASA's associate administrator Stephen Jurczyk, "I think our view is that if those commercial capabilities come online, we will eventually retire the government system, and just move to a buying launch capacity on those [rockets],". Also stated, "We haven't really engaged SpaceX on how we'd work together on BFR, and eventually get to a Mars mission — yet," Jurczyk said of NASA's leadership. "My guess is that it's coming." More details have been published here.
NASA will retire its new mega-rocket if SpaceX or Blue Origin can safely launch its own powerful rockets

Wow, reading that article, it is typical government contracting idiocy. No one is in charge. Programs just keep moving forward because they do. No one is reviewing the changing landscape. You'd think someone in NASA would like to save tens of billions of dollars for lift and instead spend it on science missions.

SLS needs to die, the sooner the better for NASA and everyone else.

 

[RDoc]

IMHO Congress has always been the main problem with SLS. NASA certainly hasn't covered itself with glory, but I chalk the whole program up to pork. Since the rules were changed in Congress, it's been a lot harder to bring home the bacon, so big ticket items like NASA and DOD have had to substitute as indirect pig suppliers, flying and otherwise.

The reason no one is stopping the wasting of 10s of $B in NASA or 100s in DOD is very simple. Spending the money, wasted or not, is the whole point. Congress has no particular interest in Space or Defense, it's just a way to shovel money into their states and those who return a small percentage as campaign contributions.

 

[gjunky]

That 10 billion could really help the BFR program. The SLS, not discounting the work done by good people, is just too expensive and late. The money could be spend on far more interesting projects and let Bezos and Elon do the rocket building, with NASAs help.

 

[Grendal]

That 10 billion could really help the BFR program. The SLS, not discounting the work done by good people, is just too expensive and late. The money could be spend on far more interesting projects and let Bezos and Elon do the rocket building, with NASAs help.

While true, the point that RDoc, ecarfan, and others made is the stumbling point. SLS is not about achieving anything. It is about funding and jobs. Any achievements and launches would be a secondary effect. The companies involved know this and play up and pay up to their respective politicians to keep those jobs and profits rolling in. As much as I hate to say it, the same seems to be true with James Webb Space Telescope.

So don't expect anything but a pittance to be thrown at SpaceX and particularly BFR/BFS. Because it is a pittance, SpaceX seems to be actively avoiding taking funds to dodge the massively delaying bureaucratic nonsense that comes along with it. That said, NASA is extremely good at sending people, data, and assistance to help SpaceX in whatever way they can. That comes with far less strings attached than a large bag of cash would.

Here is a video from Scott Manley talking about SLS and pre-SLS design.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Seems to me that NASA could figure out how to redirect funding from SLS to science missions while still keeping jobs in more or less the same states. Instead of Boeing paying contractors in Texas for some SLS part, they could pay a contractor in Texas for some science mission part.

But that would take work.

And a desire to see useful stuff come out of NASA.

I’m not sure NASA brass is up to either of those things.

 

[ecarfan]

Seems to me that NASA could figure out how to redirect funding from SLS to science missions while still keeping jobs in more or less the same states.

I don’t think so. NASA runs great science missions exploring our solar system, but they are essentially contracted out, the amounts are a small fraction of SLS spending, and the science missions employ very different companies and people than the various aspects of SLS do.

Yes, SLS is a wasteful, almost purposeless project which has no popular support (when the populace bothers to think about it, which is almost never) but it is driven by powerful members of Congress more than NASA administrators.

 

[Nikxice]

I find it remarkable that NASA's Stephen Jurczyk would make a statement indicating anything less than full support of the SLS program. Jurczyk's the number two at NASA, also appointed by Bridenstine, so he carries a good bit of weight. Like a leaky Thiokol O-ring seal, perhaps this is the first sign of a breach through the SLS firewall inside the agency.

While busy dealing with Boeing's version of the 'Spruce Goose', it's probably a good thing that NASA is on the BFR sidelines for now. SpaceX can finalize and manufacture their spacecraft without much outside influence. NASA can contribute later (I suppose nitpick to some) once the product is on the shelf ready for purchase.

Just to add to Cosmacelf's thoughts on NASA distributing dollars among states. Boeing's got some company with their use of subcontractors. Many probably remember the 60 Minutes piece that mentions sheet metal going into one end of the Hawthorne facility and rockets coming out the other end. We also realize that nothing is that simple. I deal with a company next door in Nashua, NH that make parts (local Jobs!) for SpaceX. I was lucky enough to witness some of these last week. NH certainly isn't an outlier as a supplier for SpaceX. It's likely that others on this forum have also had exposure. Two cents, the pork barrel policies defended by Shelby and others in Congress are a red herring that need to be debunked.

 

[gjunky]

Agree with all the above. I see the SLS as a wasteful project as well. I was just giving all the people that actually worked on it some credit. No fan of the people funding this and trying to keep it running with no end in sight.

 

[bxr140]

Seems to me that NASA could figure out how to redirect funding from SLS to science missions while still keeping jobs in more or less the same states. Instead of Boeing paying contractors in Texas for some SLS part, they could pay a contractor in Texas for some science mission part.

That's an ideal solution for most logical people.

The problem is, you know, science. It turns out that there's a lot of people that don't believe in it...

 

[RDoc]

The main issue I see with getting NASA (and congress) to fund science is that the Universities don't make campaign contributions to Congressmen. An obvious solution is to change the laws (and public opinion) to allow them to.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

This article talks about other countries technological advances compared to the US.

"China and Russia have eroded US dominance in space, according to the latest US National Intelligence Strategy"

Is SLS still the solution?

China 'compressing' technology gains: US intel official

 

[Grendal]

This article talks about other countries technological advances compared to the US.

"China and Russia have eroded US dominance in space, according to the latest US National Intelligence Strategy"

Is SLS still the solution?

China 'compressing' technology gains: US intel official

That would be a big...no.

Though, to be fair, the SME is still a great engine. One of the best ever. Not that they are made anymore.

 

[e-FTW]

Chris B tweets on the topic of SLS:
Chris B - NSF on Twitter
Chris B - NSF on Twitter

Lauren Grush looking at the 2020 budget I assume: Loren Grush on Twitter

 

[e-FTW]

Whoa: Eric Berger on Twitter

Chris B - NSF on Twitter
"This isn't the death of SLS. In fact, this is worse."

 

[ecarfan]

Whoa: Eric Berger on Twitter

Chris B - NSF on Twitter
"This isn't the death of SLS. In fact, this is worse."

Yep, fascinating new clues from Bridenstine on the future of SLS.

But Senator Shelby literally has the final say on this and he is certain to “plus it up”! He’s openly shameless about it.

 

[e-FTW]

Yep, fascinating new clues from Bridenstine on the future of SLS.

But Senator Shelby literally has the final say on this and he is certain to “plus it up”! He’s openly shameless about it.

Yup!

Eric Berger spells it all out here: New White House budget spells trouble for NASA’s SLS rocket
$700 million is a big chunk of change to save. On one single mission.

 

[e-FTW]

So $3.4B is a 17% reduction... Wow.