So there are 400,000+ people waiting on the $35k version?

[kbM3]

I still think the reservation and delivery numbers have a terrible inconsistency. How can all these observations/facts be true:
- 420,000 reservations as of May (per Musk) for a car that doesn’t exist ($35K version) and wont exist until at least 2019 . That many people who just leave $1,000 sitting around for years?
- 420,000 reservations from people who are willing to pay $35K but not $49K with a long range version.
- 420,000 reservations for a car that has lost or losing subsidies in US; Ontario; Hong Kong; and Norway. And would be facing tariffs in China? For a car now facing massive competition in Europe and China; for a car that does not conform to EU charging standards??
- Tesla dropping price on performance version; announcing test drives; adding sales commissions; shipping more demo models - for a car with a 420,000 wait list??
- 11,000 M3 built in June with production now at 4,000 per week means they should be delivering almost 30,000 cars in July which is FIVE times their delivery volume of Q2 - yet we are seeing no evidence of deliveries ramping (per Troy’s spreadsheets which have been spot on so far.)

I just dont see it people.

Rarely have I seen a more confused post, and I’ve seen a lot.

 

[vladstamate]

One big problem with your assumption: 5K/week.

Elon said they expect to reach 10K per week by September, which means using your assumptions, 5 months x 4.333 weeks x 10K/week = 217K unitsor roughly 1/2 of their total reservations. This proportion seems in line with the US/Canada vs Rest of World proportion of total reservations

September? No. This is from Eletrek.co website (Elon Musk says Tesla will be out of ‘production hell’ in a month as they start ramping up to 10,000 Model 3s per week):

The automaker investor relation team held a meeting with investors and analysts this week and the company reportedly disclosed that they are now aiming for a production rate of 7,000 per week by the end of the year and 10,000 per week by mid-2019.

 

[SoCalGuy]

September? No. This is from Eletrek.co website (Elon Musk says Tesla will be out of ‘production hell’ in a month as they start ramping up to 10,000 Model 3s per week):

The automaker investor relation team held a meeting with investors and analysts this week and the company reportedly disclosed that they are now aiming for a production rate of 7,000 per week by the end of the year and 10,000 per week by mid-2019.

Hmm I think you're right and my quick read of a month and "ramp up to 10K" were conflated. Thx

 

[AviP]

I’m surprised there aren’t more reservation holders crying foul. The goal posts for them have moved from:

First in line, first served

Sorry, after the current S/X owners

Sorry, after the LR reservations

Sorry, after the AWD and Performance reservations

Sorry, after we make a profit

...2 quarters in a row

Sorry, after we build any car for any person walking the street that ISN’T a SR trim.

It definitely pisses me off because the only reason I stood in line was to be ahead of others in the reservation queue. Eon Musk has effectively dissed us SR guys. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of rational type reservation holders like me will cancel. I think the SR reservations are the bulk of the M3's base and they are being let down.

It's unfortunate that Tesla has to annoy its customers to survive. I'm not short Tesla but I'm starting to believe that narrative more and more just because of the drastic steps that Tesla is taking to maintain cash flow. And seeing Eon Musk go crazy on the Thai rescue chief tells you the stress he is under if his ego is not stroked. And that whistleblower lawsuit is not helping any either. The earnings call will definitely be entertaining.

 

[Moderatefan]

Tesla has to annoy its customers

Seriously? Even after he explained they'd go bankrupt if they start making SR now you still think they are trying to annoy the customers?

There's a projection of 15% margin for Q3 for more expensive models, this is not much to work with yet. Give them 6-9 months as required to ramp up and get ready for SR.

We all had different hopes, but have to work with what's available in reality. I hoped for only half the credit from the start(4/1/2016) and $35k car, but opted for more expensive configuration and higher tax credit, coupled with a quicker delivery.
If I didn't have the money for that, I'd be maybe a bit more upset to wait for 35k version, but some credit is still better than nothing.

 

[Electroman]

It's unfortunate that Tesla has to annoy its customers to survive

That’s outrageous. -

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I have said this from the beginning and I have seen nothing to change my mind.

In the end, when the ramp is done, all models are available with roughly the same delivery time, there is no tax credit to worry about, and things are on an even keel, the 35K version of the Model 3 will account for less than 15% of the Model 3 orders...maybe less than 10%.

The fact is that this car, or ANY car for that matter, is not a car for everyone. If it were $20,000 it still would be out of reach for some. Even Volkswagon's mighty Beetle, that was specifically designed to be the car for everyone, in the end wasn't. The car will have the smallest profit margins in the Tesla fleet and right now is a risk to try to produce. They are doing the right thing by putting off its production. Elon has been very clear from the beginning that this was going to be the case. Yes, it is hard for those that are waiting for a 35K version of this car, but we all knew that this car was going to be a wait regardless of trim.

Dan

 

[PaulJB]

As someone who waited in line and is holding out for the SR versions (maybe with PUP if necessary to get sooner), I understand and agree its frustrating that the SR version isn't coming faster, and agree it feels like other people are getting to jump in front if they can afford it. However, very practically speaking, Tesla needs to do what is necessary to function and stay alive, and it makes sense to me from a business stand point that the SR is getting pushed back for more profitable versions. For this reason, I've set my best estimate at 1/2 the federal tax credit with my SR purchase.

Now if Tesla gets to 7K-10K cars per week and is profitable, and still haven't started SR production I will started getting more frustrated...

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Look, I totally sympathize with those that waited in line on 3/31/2016 and placed a $1000 reservation expecting to get a "$25,000 Tesla" (after federal and state incentives). That possibility is fading quickly. But having been watching this play out since 2013, I would bet money that Tesla will deliver some $35,000 cars in 2018. It won't be a lot, but there will be some. My guess is if you were in the front of the line at your local service center on 3/31/2016, AND you place your order as soon as the SR non-PUP option becomes available, you will get the promised car. Just a guess, but that's what I'm hoping.

To put this in perspective, there was some 115k or so reservations (in store and on line) before Elon walked out on the stage on 2016/03/31. I have no idea on the US/Canda/rest of the world mix, but even if 100% US/Canada only (thus potentially customers "now"), that's less than 6 months at 5k/ week production rate, ignoring the vehicles already delivered/produced. I know we've seen delivered cars near/around 40k vins, so let's assume we've only got 60k of that initial 100k left (probably less, if we took out international customers, but I'm being pessimistic). That's be only 12 weeks production at 5k/week, or about one quarter.

So if Tesla pulled another "doing the right thing" (like pushing 200k US deliveries into Q3 to extend the tax credit) then perhaps they'll line up a run of SR vehicles in Q4 timed such that they are fairly certain to deliver before end of Q4. It'll mean a hit to the bottom line, but it might not be too bad if they do it for say, one month (~20k-32k SR vehicles depending on production rate when they hit this point) to get the cars to the most faithful of the faithful (and perhaps prioritize new owners over existing S/X owners for the SR vehicles - after all they've probably already had the benefit of tax credits and so on at least once). Hopefully by then they'll be at least break even on SR (or perhaps we'll see SR w/ PUP needed to get early SR).

Now, I'm not saying this is likely... but it's not impossible. If they targeted say, production for November, with sending the earlier produced vehicles further (east coast etc) and later ones nearer (west coast), should be able to get them out in time for the whole month production to get tax credits.

 

[commasign]

So if Tesla pulled another "doing the right thing" (like pushing 200k US deliveries into Q3 to extend the tax credit) then perhaps they'll line up a run of SR vehicles in Q4 timed such that they are fairly certain to deliver before end of Q4. It'll mean a hit to the bottom line, but it might not be too bad if they do it for say, one month (~20k-32k SR vehicles depending on production rate when they hit this point) to get the cars to the most faithful of the faithful (and perhaps prioritize new owners over existing S/X owners for the SR vehicles - after all they've probably already had the benefit of tax credits and so on at least once). Hopefully by then they'll be at least break even on SR (or perhaps we'll see SR w/ PUP needed to get early SR).

Agreed. Stretch goal to be sure, but would be a wonderful gesture if Tesla could build enough Model 3 SR cars to at least fill all Day 1 reservations waiting for those variants.

 

[T34ME]

Wow, you've certainly beaten the crap out of that poor straw man. Give the guy some warning next time!

 

[T34ME]

I still think the reservation and delivery numbers have a terrible inconsistency. How can all these observations/facts be true:
- 420,000 reservations as of May (per Musk) for a car that doesn’t exist ($35K version) and wont exist until at least 2019 . That many people who just leave $1,000 sitting around for years?

True, I would be one of those people. I'm all in on the base model, however long it takes to deliver.

- 420,000 reservations from people who are willing to pay $35K but not $49K with a long range version.

True, I want the $35K base model, but I will load it up with about $20K of options.

- 420,000 reservations for a car that has lost or losing subsidies in US; Ontario; Hong Kong; and Norway. And would be facing tariffs in China? For a car now facing massive competition in Europe and China; for a car that does not conform to EU charging standards??

True, you obviously haven't driven a model 3. It makes people giddy with pleasure. And if I take delivery the first half of 2019, I will get $3750 fed credit, $2500 State rebate, and $450 utility rebate. That's over $6500 rebate/credit. Car will conform to charging standards in countries delivered.

- Tesla dropping price on performance version; announcing test drives; adding sales commissions; shipping more demo models - for a car with a 420,000 wait list??

True, Tesla didn't drop the price of the P model, they just eliminated some of the mandatory options. lots of profit in the P model.

- 11,000 M3 built in June with production now at 4,000 per week means they should be delivering almost 30,000 cars in July which is FIVE times their delivery volume of Q2 - yet we are seeing no evidence of deliveries ramping (per Troy’s spreadsheets which have been spot on so far.)

True, Troy's figures are inaccurate because they extrapolate from voluntary participation. Tesla is now pumping them out of the delivery centers at the rate of 5 minutes per buyer. I think July figures will exceed 30K.

I just dont see it people.

I see, said the blind man.

 

[drawfour]

I see, said the blind man.

"I see," said the blind man to his deaf daughter as he picked up his hammer and saw.

 

[JBare]

As someone who waited in line and is holding out for the SR versions (maybe with PUP if necessary to get sooner), I understand and agree its frustrating that the SR version isn't coming faster, and agree it feels like other people are getting to jump in front if they can afford it. However, very practically speaking, Tesla needs to do what is necessary to function and stay alive, and it makes sense to me from a business stand point that the SR is getting pushed back for more profitable versions. For this reason, I've set my best estimate at 1/2 the federal tax credit with my SR purchase.

Now if Tesla gets to 7K-10K cars per week and is profitable, and still haven't started SR production I will started getting more frustrated...

I'm with you on that one. Waited in line in Northern VA to put my deposit down (can't believe that was 28 months ago!). While I could stretch my finances to get the LR option, I'd rather dip my toe in the EV waters before going all in. While I should be upset about getting passed over and over I get it and somehow am okay with how it's going.

If they "did a right thing" as mentioned earlier by offering us day-1 holders a chance at a short range delivery in 2018 I'd be thrilled; but pushing it to first half of next year isn't going to rule out the option for me. I'm in a little different position than some where this will be my 3rd vehicle (after semi-retiring my 12 yr old F150, using only as a backup or trips to Lowes) until I know I can live with an EV and feel comfortable with the Model 3 reliability / Tesla's ability to handle issues with so many more of there cars on the road.

Honestly this is exactly how I'd hoped the process would go (if I get full credit in December for SR). I want them to build as many Model 3s as possible and refine what they can based on all those actual use miles before making mine. Hoping for a Christmas Miracle!! haah

 

[suwaneedad]

perhaps we'll see SR w/ PUP needed to get early SR

This is the outcome which feels most likely to me. Particularly given the news this weekend that delivery estimates for existing models have been pulled forward by a month in all cases. Assuming these estimates are to be relied upon and are not the usual Elon Time, it portends a situation where the North American demand for the existing models will be satiated in time to deliver quite a few SRs in the US prior to 12/31. How to maximize that quantity? Disrupt the existing production line as little as possible of course...which means first offer SR+PUP so that the glass roof keeps on being a glass roof, and so the interior keeps on being the existing interior. Non-PUP (metal) roofs are going to have their own teething pains; no sense disrupting the production rate while the calendar still says 2018. I suspect many US SR customers would be willing to spring for the $5k PUP in order to secure their full $7500 tax credit. PUP for an effective price of $1250...bit of a no brainer. Rolling SRs out in this fashion has the benefit of putting SR early reservationists 'in control' of their decision to take delivery in 2018 or in 2019, depending on whether they elect to spring for the "$1250 PUP" path.

20-40k SR+PUP delivered in the US within 2018 is possible...I dare say 20k is now likely.

 

[Electroman]

Can they deliver 200k S3X just in Q2 & Q3?

That would be awesome. 200k in the first 5 years and then 200k more in the next 6 months!

 

[TaoJones]

September? No. This is from Eletrek.co website (Elon Musk says Tesla will be out of ‘production hell’ in a month as they start ramping up to 10,000 Model 3s per week):

The automaker investor relation team held a meeting with investors and analysts this week and the company reportedly disclosed that they are now aiming for a production rate of 7,000 per week by the end of the year and 10,000 per week by mid-2019.

Crazy talk. Crazy because that’s an almost sane and attainable forecasted production rate ramp . Oh my. What did they do with Elon and whatever shall the short-driven analysts do when the 2018 7K/week number is attained 2 weeks before year-end?

Pushing the 10K rate to the end of 2019 seems just as okey dokey, not to mention likely. After all, one of the original Model 3 forecasts was for 2020.

 

[WarpedOne]

This may come as a shocker to the OP and some other in this thread but there is more world outside USA and Canada.
At least half of reservation came from those mysterious lands of no name and they still cannot configure.

 

[Cloxxki]

If the wait time is up to about 4 months for all long range cars, and standard range is at least 6 months out, what are they going to make in the mean time? This is a wonderful opening for wild speculation :-D

 

[Cloxxki]

How do other brands do this? When they launch a new car, let's say an all-new Volkswagen Golf/BMW 3 or whichever equivalent, how long and how many units before a large factory starts making the 1.0L EcoBlah version with plain fabric interior, non-sun roof, etc, etc?