Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[wycolo]

> I feel like we'll see $350 by . . (insert date here).

One should take advantage of the volatility. If I see a rise of at least 10 with leveling off, then half of position gets sold. Pull trigger at or near next trough. Repeat. Add regen to TSLA.
--

 

[uselesslogin]

> I feel like we'll see $350 by . . (insert date here).

One should take advantage of the volatility. If I see a rise of at least 10 with leveling off, then half of position gets sold. Pull trigger at or near next trough. Repeat. Add regen to TSLA.
--

In my case I will start selling options at around $230 or $240 and keep it up until it gets to my super-bullish target of $350, at which point I'll sell everything and keep only my core position. I have only September expirations right now I figure if this ER is not good for the stock the next one will be and might save my options. I also have enough cash to do this again if the stock goes down and/or not up enough. I figure trying to get a 10 bagger in options 10 times and succeeding at least 2 times is a much better use of a given amount of cash then buying something more conservative. Of course, I should add, this is money I can afford to lose and I held on tight through the dips so I think I have a high risk tolerance.

 

[c041v]

Green is Green. I'll take it.

Hopefully we continue the relatively steady march into ER.

 

[Auzie]

Not sure if this is the right place to post, but I prefer not to start a new thread as the news might die off, so I will post here.

Malaysian Gov released preliminary report on MH 370 disappearance. The relevance to this forum is that some news agencies are mentioning, quote: "The report also revealed that 2.5 tons of lithium ion batteries had been stowed on board."

TV stations and newspapers in Australia are mentioning the presence of lithium ion batteries on the plane and speculating on the possible fire scenarios as these batteries are "known to cause fire".

The perception often trumps the facts. My concern is that the news like these might contribute to shaping the public perception of li ion batteries. The average person hearing such news does not usually bother to investigate.

I hope that the plane is found. Knowledge of what happened might provide some closure to so many people that have lost their loved ones. All air travelers also need to get better understanding of what really happened.

In the absence of facts, speculations might go wild. I hope that will not happen, but I am concerned.

 

[uselesslogin]

Being a super bull I want to post a video from last year:
http://www.allreadable.com/vid/cnbc-analyst-andrea-james-defends-her-$200-price-target-on-tesla-motors-shares-783214.html

And offer a reminder that Andrea James thinks the stock will be at $360 by next February. Maybe she isn't as super bullish as me but it sure got close to $200 not long after she set that target.

 

[c041v]

Not sure if this is the right place to post, but I prefer not to start a new thread as the news might die off, so I will post here.

Malaysian Gov released preliminary report on MH 370 disappearance. The relevance to this forum is that some news agencies are mentioning, quote: "The report also revealed that 2.5 tons of lithium ion batteries had been stowed on board."

TV stations and newspapers in Australia are mentioning the presence of lithium ion batteries on the plane and speculating on the possible fire scenarios as these batteries are "known to cause fire".

The perception often trumps the facts. My concern is that the news like these might contribute to shaping the public perception of li ion batteries. The average person hearing such news does not usually bother to investigate.

I hope that the plane is found. Knowledge of what happened might provide some closure to so many people that have lost their loved ones. All air travelers also need to get better understanding of what really happened.

In the absence of facts, speculations might go wild. I hope that will not happen, but I am concerned.

Given Elon's reaction to the 787 ordeal last year, I'm not too worried about aviation specific lithium-ion batteries. That said, the report does not specifically satte the nature or purpose of those batteries. Were they actually used for the plane, or just in transit? Either way, I'm not terribly concerned given Tesla's effort to prevent thermal runaway.

In other news, jobs report looks good. Wonder what sort of day we'll get. I'm hoping for a couple +% but like the rest of you, I have no sweet clue.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Given Elon's reaction to the 787 ordeal last year, I'm not too worried about aviation specific lithium-ion batteries. That said, the report does not specifically satte the nature or purpose of those batteries. Were they actually used for the plane, or just in transit? Either way, I'm not terribly concerned given Tesla's effort to prevent thermal runaway.

In other news, jobs report looks good. Wonder what sort of day we'll get. I'm hoping for a couple +% but like the rest of you, I have no sweet clue.

Than why not just let it drop. I realize I am doing what I am faulting others for but there have been other topics that we won't let drop like the lemon issue ok I am done will not comment further on issues buried

 

[cctv]

It is so quiet this time before ER, anyone else feels the same?

 

[carrerascott]

It is so quiet this time before ER, anyone else feels the same?

Saving all the fun up!

 

[uselesslogin]

It is so quiet this time before ER, anyone else feels the same?

Very quiet. I'm trying to drum things up by being super bullish. I kind of am actually super bullish as well but I'm very excited for his ER but it seems like no one else is. We are going into this one with the stock beat up for the first time since things started getting interesting with last years Q1 report. I'm convinced either this one or the next one will be huge. I also don't see much downside on this one but I guess we'll see.

 

[AlMc]

Very quiet. I'm trying to drum things up by being super bullish. I kind of am actually super bullish as well but I'm very excited for his ER but it seems like no one else is. We are going into this one with the stock beat up for the first time since things started getting interesting with last years Q1 report. I'm convinced either this one or the next one will be huge. I also don't see much downside on this one but I guess we'll see.

I think the malaise comes from TM guidance from last ER indicating that the production ramp up would be seen more in the second half of the year, and unknowns about when the announcement about the Gigafactory partner(s)/build site and the much anticipated model X production. In addition, the geopolitics and recent beat up of some other 'tech' and/or 'momos' after some decent ERs has got everyone worried.
The good news is that we don't have a lather building up about huge delivery numbers/expectations like we had in Q3 2013.

While I would like to see some great numbers/guidance and a steady run up of TSLA, I would be happy with good numbers/guidance, stable TSLA price in anticipation of a blow out Q2/Q3 that I believe is more of a certainty ( disclaimer: Nothing in investing is a certainty!)

 

[uselesslogin]

I think the malaise comes from TM guidance from last ER indicating that the production ramp up would be seen more in the second half of the year, and unknowns about when the announcement about the Gigafactory partner(s)/build site and the much anticipated model X production. In addition, the geopolitics and recent beat up of some other 'tech' and/or 'momos' after some decent ERs has got everyone worried.
The good news is that we don't have a lather building up about huge delivery numbers/expectations like we had in Q3 2013.

While I would like to see some great numbers/guidance and a steady run up of TSLA, I would be happy with good numbers/guidance, stable TSLA price in anticipation of a blow out Q2/Q3 that I believe is more of a certainty ( disclaimer: Nothing in investing is a certainty!)

The lack of lather is what makes me excited about this earnings report. I feel like if it is so-so not much will happen and we will sit where we are and maybe uptrend and end up somewhere 10-20% higher going into the Q2 report. But if it is good to great I think the move will be bigger because the expectations seem to be rather low. But I agree there are no certainties and the only thing I know for sure is that the price will fluctuate.

 

[clmason]

Elon's interviews and tweets used to drop cryptic hints for us, he has since stopped.

Some of them were:
- His prediction of "Tsunami of hurt" for TSLA shorts during an interview back in 2012.
- There was the "I won't talk about hyper loop until Tesla is profitable for 2 quarters" said in an interview and then tweeted "Will publish Hyperloop alpha design by Aug 12.", one could infer good things...
- Last annual shareholder meeting foll up tweet - "just as my money was the first in, it will be the last out." - big time confidence booster for shareholders
- When rumor of sales peaked and "what are they doing?" last year he tweeted" Improving service and honing manufacturing efficiency are the biggest short term challenges. Not sales constrained."

Too bad he stopped dropping these clues. They were really great for investors to read between the lines.

 

[Cwin]

Elon's interviews and tweets used to drop cryptic hints for us, he has since stopped.

Some of them were:
- His prediction of "Tsunami of hurt" for TSLA shorts during an interview back in 2012.
- There was the "I won't talk about hyper loop until Tesla is profitable for 2 quarters" said in an interview and then tweeted "Will publish Hyperloop alpha design by Aug 12.", one could infer good things...
- Last annual shareholder meeting foll up tweet - "just as my money was the first in, it will be the last out." - big time confidence booster for shareholders
- When rumor of sales peaked and "what are they doing?" last year he tweeted" Improving service and honing manufacturing efficiency are the biggest short term challenges. Not sales constrained."

Too bad he stopped dropping these clues. They were really great for investors to read between the lines.

Even he thinks we are overvalued atm. He doesn't want to be held to any promises.

 

[FANGO]

Even he thinks we are overvalued atm.

This is not true for multiple reasons. Not only did he not say that, he also hasn't said it "at the moment." Also, the CEO runs the company, he's not a stock analyst, he's not the market as a whole, he can't see the future, it's not up to him to decide how "overvalued" it is or what the price will be on any particular date.

What he has said is that Tesla will have to work hard to justify the current valuation. Everyone knows this and everyone has known this forever. That's how every single company works, always, by definition. The stock value always takes into account future performance. So the statements he has made about stock valuation have been nothing but factual, not a judgment call in the slightest, and every time someone talks about this and I ask them to post a quote of Elon saying the stock is overvalued, guess what? They can't. Because he hasn't. And it wouldn't matter if he did. And this has already been discussed a million times.

 

[Cwin]

This is not true for multiple reasons. Not only did he not say that, he also hasn't said it "at the moment." Also, the CEO runs the company, he's not a stock analyst, he's not the market as a whole, he can't see the future, it's not up to him to decide how "overvalued" it is or what the price will be on any particular date.

What he has said is that Tesla will have to work hard to justify the current valuation. Everyone knows this and everyone has known this forever. That's how every single company works, always, by definition. The stock value always takes into account future performance. So the statements he has made about stock valuation have been nothing but factual, not a judgment call in the slightest, and every time someone talks about this and I ask them to post a quote of Elon saying the stock is overvalued, guess what? They can't. Because he hasn't. And it wouldn't matter if he did. And this has already been discussed a million times.

Alright. No need to get riled up about it.

Elon has his hands full with SpaceX. He's got enough to talk about there for both companies.

 

[bonnie]

Alright. No need to get riled up about it.

Elon has his hands full with SpaceX. He's got enough to talk about there for both companies.

i don't see anyone " riled up", I only see clarification.

 

[Dane Dad]

And, further, Elon recently stated that he thinks the company is fairly valued. Can't recall which video but it was far more recent than the "over-valued interview".

 

[kenliles]

And, further, Elon recently stated that he thinks the company is fairly valued. Can't recall which video but it was far more recent than the "over-valued interview".

That was a while ago, but regardless, to your point:
He just raised a couple billion on it's value. What he gonna say, I ripped you guys off! Don't think so, and I doubt he does either. I think Elon's days of openly speculating on the current value of the stock are long gone, as they should be

 

[aznt1217]

And, further, Elon recently stated that he thinks the company is fairly valued. Can't recall which video but it was far more recent than the "over-valued interview".

Yes I do remember this. At around ~25B mark he said it is fairly valued with a lot of potential but they have a lot to deliver.