Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[SteveG3]

hi Fango

your name seems very appropriate. Isn't the fact that Tesla had to make what appeared to be a last minute "Hail Mary Pass" attempt to get over 10-15% of the 1st qtr sales delivered to a far off small country in order to avoid a disastrous miss on Sales a good enough reason for unbiased, rational investors to take pause?

what am I missing?

GP, I can understand the line or reasoning in your statement, however, Tesla stated unequivocally on the May 7th conference call that Q2 is completely sold out. This implies Tesla is sold out at least 2 months forward, as part of Q3 may be sold out as well. So, while I can see the Norway deliveries gave you a moment to pause and conjecture potential demand issues, we now have a direct statement of demand convincingly continuing to outpace supply.

(fwiw, as to other explanations of the large Norway deliveries: if I recall correctly, the Model S deliveries to Norway in March set a new record in Norway of sales of ANY vehicle EVER in one month. Tesla does not have an advertising budget, outside of Norway, the EU generally has not seen the kind of Teslamania seen in the U.S. in 2013 or currently in China. I think Tesla is looking to get Model S/X sales to 100K+ by 2016. I think headlines of the Model S having the best sales month of any vehicle ever in Norway is a pretty good way to lay the groundwork for the level of European demand needed in outyears to get over 100K+ vehicles sold. China may go absolutely wild over the Model S and X, but I don't think Tesla or its investors are served by taking this for granted that EU sales growth is not necessary... good free publicity in the EU is worth having while it is there for the taking).

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think Tesla is looking to get Model S/X sales to 100K+ by 2016.

I THOUGHT almost the same thing (113 MS/MX sold in 2016), until I've read the latest 10-Q, which pretty much confirms our thoughts. From now on I will drop I think, and just say that Tesla PLANS to sell at least 100K of MS/MX in 2016:

From p.20, under the Performance-Based Stock Option Grant heading:

In January 2014, to create incentives for continued long term success beyond the Model S program and to closely align executive pay with our stockholders’ interests in the achievement of significant milestones by our company, the Compensation Committee of our Board of Directors granted stock options to certain employees to purchase 782,500 shares of our common stock. Each such grant consists of four vesting tranches with a vesting schedule based entirely on the attainment of future performance milestones, assuming continued employment and service to us through each vesting date.

•

1/4th of the shares subject to the options are scheduled to vest upon completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle;

•

1/4th of the shares subject to the options are scheduled to vest upon achieving aggregate vehicle production of 100,000 vehicles in a trailing 12-month period;

•

1/4th of the shares subject to the options are scheduled to vest upon completion of the first Gen III Production Vehicle; and

•

1/4th of the shares subject to the options are scheduled to vest upon achievement of annualized gross margin of greater than 30.0% in any three years.

 

[BornToFly]

Sorry if this has been mentioned, since I haven't read every post. I think the end of the report, which said 2014 would end with a loss for the year (because of rapid expansion), is the main reason the stock took a big hit. We see the expansion as a good thing because it solidifies the future of Tesla, but I think the average investor didn't like it.

 

[marvinat0rz]

You are missing the fact that some of the logistics are easier if you ship lots of vehicles to the same place at the same time. Also I believe some incentives in Norway go away at the end of the year, so it was advantageous for Tesla to really saturate the country early.

Just for the record, no incentives in Norway are going away at the end of the year. There is a political debate about whether to remove free bus lane use and free parking, but the official line is still that all incentives remain until 2017 or until >50,000 vehicles are sold in total (total as of Jan 1st: 20,000).

 

[GravityPull]

(fwiw, as to other explanations of the large Norway deliveries: if I recall correctly, the Model S deliveries to Norway in March set a new record in Norway of sales of ANY vehicle EVER in one month. Tesla does not have an advertising budget, outside of Norway, the EU generally has not seen the kind of Teslamania seen in the U.S. in 2013 or currently in China. I think Tesla is looking to get Model S/X sales to 100K+ by 2016. I think headlines of the Model S having the best sales month of any vehicle ever in Norway is a pretty good way to lay the I think headlines of the Model S having the best sales month of any vehicle ever in Norway is a pretty good way to lay the groundwork for the level of European demand needed in outyears to get over 100K+ vehicles sold. for the level of European demand needed in outyears to get over 100K+ vehicles sold.

I see......so is there any evidence of significant sales improvement in EU sales since the Norway record deliveries in March?

 

[Auzie]

I see......so is there any evidence of significant sales improvement in EU sales since the Norway record deliveries in March?

It may not be possible to see evidence of demand upside above current production rate. We can only speculate based on order book and deposits. The other side however, global demand below the current production rates, would be very easy to spot if it were to happen, but we are not seeing such evidence.

 

[AlMc]

I see......so is there any evidence of significant sales improvement in EU sales since the Norway record deliveries in March?

Well, No (glass half empty) but there could be (glass half full).....Since TM does not issue monthly sales figures, let alone country by country or region by region ones. Our only knowledge of these figures comes from our European friends digging into registration numbers. My 'glass half full' (but also my opinion/my logic) is that while TM is supply constrained and trying to open up new markets...NA to Europe to China to RHD countries they are shipping cars and setting up SCs to not only support those vehicles but, without advertising, get their brand in front of people. So, any regional sales are not as important as overall demand/sales. Since it has been stated that all the Q2 production is already spoken and deposits for the X now exceed 15,000, and increasing every day, I will put my worries more on execution of the building of the GF than I will on demand in any particular region or the fact that the X has been delayed.

 

[cctv]

Agree on GF.
Bottleneck is battery
Also with cost reduction and better efficiency, TM will enjoy higher margin

Well, No (glass half empty) but there could be (glass half full).....Since TM does not issue monthly sales figures, let alone country by country or region by region ones. Our only knowledge of these figures comes from our European friends digging into registration numbers. My 'glass half full' (but also my opinion/my logic) is that while TM is supply constrained and trying to open up new markets...NA to Europe to China to RHD countries they are shipping cars and setting up SCs to not only support those vehicles but, without advertising, get their brand in front of people. So, any regional sales are not as important as overall demand/sales. Since it has been stated that all the Q2 production is already spoken and deposits for the X now exceed 15,000, and increasing every day, I will put my worries more on execution of the building of the GF than I will on demand in any particular region or the fact that the X has been delayed.

 

[SteveG3]

I see......so is there any evidence of significant sales improvement in EU sales since the Norway record deliveries in March?

I don't know... the news of the record came out early April, it would take a few months for any uptick in orders to flow through to deliveries (lag for customers in other EU countries to see the news, take a harder look at Tesla, decide to buy, place order, have car built, shipped and delivered). in the meantime, you could ask on the EU thread here in the investor's forum if the Norway story got any significant coverage in the other EU countries. finally, fwiw, as you'll see in my post, this is about building recognition and interest for sales in the out years (2014 demand is not an issue)... I think the Teslamania phenomena we saw in the U.S., and see now in China, is sort a cumulative process. Hopefully, the Norway news was a piece of that, and other near term events will add on (i.e., some of that Norwegian fleet driving through other countries this summer as a SuperCharger network comes on line in earnest) but that remains to be seen.

@GP, what do you make of Tesla's prospects in China?

 

[Gerardf]

Regarding Tesla's driving through Europe to increase visibility..

There are (relatively) quite a lot of Tesla's in The Netherlands and many of those owners would love to be able to use their MS for their vacations in Germany, France, Italy, Croatia etc. It could help if Tesla could be a bit more open on their plans and status / progress of SuperChagers on these popular routes South. People are making their vacation plans now.

To my opinion the Tesla SuperCharger European webpage should ASAP get a "Coming Soon" tab and update. Long overdue really. Many people considering ordering an MS seem to be waiting for the European SC plans to progress. A promise to 200 new SC in 2014 is great info for us insiders, but not seen by these customers-to-be. They simply look at the Tesla website an see no plans other then 'End of 2014'. Also Elon seems to think so, as he specifically referred to such an update during his Amsterdam visit.

 

[Cwin]

So, assuming this mornings movement holds, which it may or may not, does anyone have an explanation for whats going on?

The rest of the market is up, other tech stocks are up, yet SCTY is flatish and TSLA is bouncing around -1%

My current guess is that since we have the circuit breaker gone, a lot of new shorts are coming in.

 

[The Blue Owl]

So, assuming this mornings movement holds, which it may or may not, does anyone have an explanation for whats going on?

The rest of the market is up, other tech stocks are up, yet SCTY is flatish and TSLA is bouncing around -1%

I think the shorts are testing how much fear still exists among the longs. With the current headlines pointing in every direction imaginable, it's the perfect moment for them to try to capitalize on the confusion. They'll push for as long as it's practical, after which TSLA will resync with the NASDAQ. That's my reading of it.

 

[Cwin]

I think the shorts are testing how much fear still exists among the longs. With the current headlines pointing in every direction imaginable, it's the perfect moment for them to try to capitalize on the confusion. They'll push for as long as it's practical, after which TSLA will resync with the NASDAQ. That's my reading of it.

Agreed. That being said, its a pretty weak push. If the NASDAQ doesn't **** a brick later today. I expect this will end up being a pretty green week.

 

[SteveG3]

So, assuming this mornings movement holds, which it may or may not, does anyone have an explanation for whats going on?

The rest of the market is up, other tech stocks are up, yet SCTY is flatish and TSLA is bouncing around -1%

My current guess is that since we have the circuit breaker gone, a lot of new shorts are coming in.

Cwin, I may be mistaken, but I think you wrote last week that you have a short position in Tesla (fwiw, I don't have any problem with it if you do). If you do, are you looking for a quick small percentage move trade in the next few days, or are you looking to hold the position for a substantial, say 10%+, move?

 

[Cwin]

Cwin, I may be mistaken, but I think you wrote last week that you have a short position in Tesla (fwiw, I don't have any problem with it if you do). If you do, are you looking for a quick small percentage move trade in the next few days, or are you looking to hold the position for a substantial, say 10%+, move?

I had a short position over the past few days, since the ER. Obviously it hasn't paid off much after the ER.

I haven't decided what I'm going to do for the rest of the week yet. I think it will be a decent week, but I haven't yet looked at the weeks coming events for TSLA and the market in general.

If there aren't any mild catalysts, then I think we will see a slow climb back to 185-189 this week.

 

[SteveG3]

I had a short position over the past few days, since the ER. Obviously it hasn't paid off much after the ER.

I haven't decided what I'm going to do for the rest of the week yet. I think it will be a decent week, but I haven't yet looked at the weeks coming events for TSLA and the market in general.

thanks for posting your position. I'm not clear though... do you think it will be a decent week for your short position or for TSLA longs? where do you see the price headed this week?

 

[Cwin]

thanks for posting your position. I'm not clear though... do you think it will be a decent week for your short position or for TSLA longs? where do you see the price headed this week?

I got out my short position this morning with the small drop.

And by short, I just had some 177.5 puts for the 17th.

I find it hard to justify, without any research, taking another short position. So it looks like a good week for longs in my eyes.

That being said, the without further research is a big caveat, I find this board unreliable for negative news, or even negative speculation.

My current target, including a large amount of guesstimation, is 185-189 by friday.

 

[SteveG3]

I got out my short position this morning with the small drop.

I find it hard to justify, without any research, taking another short position. So it looks like a good week for longs in my eyes.

okay, appreciate your straightforwardness.

 

[Cwin]

okay, appreciate your straightforwardness.

If you want more honesty. I bought some 200 may 30th calls while I do some more research today. If I can't find any significant reasons for us to not keep moving up back to 200, I'll just keep those.

 

[SteveG3]

If you want more honesty. I bought some 200 may 30th calls while I do some more research today. If I can't find any significant reasons for us to not keep moving up back to 200, I'll just keep those.

well, those I'll wish you good luck with