Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[austinEV]

With the drop this morning I am feeling more bullish that we are set up for a positive surprise. I bought a handful of weekly calls at 200 and 210 strikes (very little time premium in those).

 

[chickensevil]

and based on this mornings drop I have bought a single call at 245 for this week at 6.15. I am willing to gamble on this drop today being totally uncalled for (macro movement mostly) and the earnings information tonight will call for a return and shoot up into 250+ and beyond. That is my prediction (I need it to hit ~250 in order for this gamble to pay out for me).

I figure this is all totally uncalled for and that we have enough information to safely say that Tesla will come inline with guidance with a decent chance for a surprise... which as previously stated even coming inline with guidance would be a beat on the current expectations because the market is projecting a miss.

 

[Muskol]

So what is the overall consensus for tonight with regards to people's position. Are the majority of the members of the forum cutting back their positions, holding, or adding prior to tonight? I have Jan 16 280 strike calls which I have no problem holding through earnings tonight. I also have March 15 300 strike calls which I'm not sure what to do with (hold or close out). There are good arguments for closing them (ie slightly bad earnings tonight) or for holding them (model x reveal perhaps in Jan and another earnings event in Feb). Any suggestions on the latter would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

I am recklessly long going into this ER, with hopes of a relentless run tomorrow and onwards.

Short term wise, I'm holding J15 260's and M15 280's into tonight, and added a few of each on the dip this morning below 233.

Good luck folks.

 

[chickensevil]

I also threw out another low ball limit order at 5.00 on the same 245 strike, if the price continues to stay low and I get that one to trigger, I think we will easily get a 5%-10% pop tomorrow alone and possibly continue to run up on Friday.

 

[InTheShadows]

My feeling is that we will go up, just because we are already pretty low and it seems expectations are low.

I have a few puts, I also bought a lottery ticket with week 2 dec 290's. I have been making my plays this ER with that week because the IV is much lower at that point. This week's IV is higher than SpaceX rockets. I have a call and a put for this week that I bought last week, I will probably sell them before close today. The put is up 50% and the call is down around 40%.

 

[Johan]

Buying weekly ITM calls now. Can't resist
(I need to call 1-800-STOPGAMBLING). I can't shake the feeling that it's possible to outsmart the casino on this one...

 

[Blip]

I sold a 200/210-270/280 Iron condor. Hopefully we end up between 210 and 270, but of course 270 would be preferred.

 

[FluxCap]

This dip in QQQ and TSLA feels overly sharp on nothing legitimate. I am day trading this dip ever so slightly.

 

[AlMc]

Buying weekly slightly OTM calls now. Can't resist
(I need to call 1-800-STOPGAMBLING). I can't shake the feeling that it's possible to outsmart the casino on this one...

Good luck my friend. I am slowly offloading some 240 puts and buying 200s. I may grab some lotto ticket calls (Nov 14) at the 275-280 range. But it will be a small play and gives me something to watch today.

 

[Johan]

Good luck my friend. I am slowly offloading some 240 puts and buying 200s. I may grab some lotto ticket calls (Nov 14) at the 275-280 range. But it will be a small play and gives me something to watch today.

So you're sticking to the original plan huh? Today's drop feels unwarranted, that coupled with Elon's confident tweets, the analysts aggregated lowish expectations and where we are right now with regards to the trading channels (medium-low channel) makes me fell we could see a big gap up tomorrow. Never underestimate a TSLA earnings call.

 

[AlMc]

So you're sticking to the original plan huh? Today's drop feels unwarranted, that coupled with Elon's confident tweets, the analysts aggregated lowish expectations and where we are right now with regards to the trading channels (medium-low channel) makes me fell we could see a big gap up tomorrow. Never underestimate a TSLA earnings call.

Yes. :wink:

 

[chickensevil]

Buying weekly ITM calls now. Can't resist
(I need to call 1-800-STOPGAMBLING). I can't shake the feeling that it's possible to outsmart the casino on this one...

Totally right there with you. Like I told myself leading up to this Friday, Monday, and even Yesturday... there is no point in buying, the IV crush is going to kill you... just wait... just wait. But the stupid crazy drop today, just doesn't make any sense at all which gives even more hope of a positive jump tomorrow to blow through the IV crush. This is going to be interesting, maybe we all need to go to gambling anonymous

 

[eepic]

So you're sticking to the original plan huh? Today's drop feels unwarranted, that coupled with Elon's confident tweets, the analysts aggregated lowish expectations and where we are right now with regards to the trading channels (medium-low channel) makes me fell we could see a big gap up tomorrow. Never underestimate a TSLA earnings call.

I for one hope the fish are jumping in the boat

 

[ongba]

Thanks for everyone's input. With the selloff today prior to earnings, and with everyone's encouraging words, I will hold onto my March 15 calls.

 

[InTheShadows]

I'm full long again. I hope I made the right decision. I no longer have any puts.

 

[mejojo]

Buying weekly ITM calls now. Can't resist
(I need to call 1-800-STOPGAMBLING). I can't shake the feeling that it's possible to outsmart the casino on this one...

This belongs in the newbie thread, but....

So, when you buy ITM calls, does that mean you will simply yield the "cream" off a rise, at much lower cost than buying the stock?

So, if you pay $20(00) for a 11/22 220 contract, once the stock hits 240, you will yield a buck for each point above 240....so a rise to 260 will return (approx) 100% profit?

 

[Johan]

This belongs in the newbie thread, but....

So, when you buy ITM calls, does that mean you will simply yield the "cream" off a rise, at much lower cost than buying the stock?

So, if you pay $20(00) for a 11/22 220 contract, once the stock hits 240, you will yield a buck for each point above 240....so a rise to 260 will return (approx) 100% profit?

Yes. The time value cost much less with these calls than the ATM or OTM ones. But you tie up more capital.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Thanks for everyone's input. With the selloff today prior to earnings, and with everyone's encouraging words, I will hold onto my March 15 calls.

so far this is like all the other day of report trading except the downward trend less severe percentage wise. expect to drop further. i am not making any claims about the report (although i do expect a beat). will sell half my puts later today and hold the rest through tomorrow just in case. the puts were not meant to be a day trade for me but insurance to take the sting out of potential loss.

 

[austinEV]

Yes. The time value cost much less with these calls than the ATM or OTM ones. But you tie up more capital.

I got weeklies with a 200 strike. The stock was 235 at the time and I paid about 36-37 for them. So only 1-2 dollars of time value "cost". You get less leverage but it is still possible to make money off of a relatively small stock movement. My breakeven is only 237.

(Remember to sell weeklies before expiration so you don't buy thousands of shares of stock )

 

[ongba]

so far this is like all the other day of report trading except the downward trend less severe percentage wise. expect to drop further. i am not making any claims about the report (although i do expect a beat). will sell half my puts later today and hold the rest through tomorrow just in case. the puts were not meant to be a day trade for me but insurance to take the sting out of potential loss.

So the puts were utilized to protect shares? and by selling half of the puts today, you are going into the report net long, ie shares to put ratio of 2:1? Thanks.