SpaceX vs. Everyone - ULA, NG, Boeing, Lockheed, etc.

[Nikxice]

Several recent reports indicate yet another delay for NASA's Space Launch System/Orion capsule. The recent problems facing SLS are numerous. They range from construction issues building the rocket core stage (Boeing) to tornado damage at an assembly facility in New Orleans earlier this year. Here's the SLS chronology of delays just for 2017.

- January 2017 - NASA was still sticking with an SLS initial test flight scheduled for November 2018.
- April 2017 - SLS first flight (Explorer Mission-1) pushed into 2019.
- May 2017 - Nix to Trump, NASA reaffirms EM-1 will remain uncrewed, launching in December 2019.
- Now NASA acknowledges that the first SLS launch will likely not occur before June 2020.

It seems inevitable FH, BFR, New Glenn, or some combination of rockets will eventually supplant SLS. The last seven years NASA has been spending 3 to 4 billion dollars annually on the SLS project. (Not to justify this expense, but at least the money is being spent here in the U.S.) Pushing out the first SLS date will likely squash NASA's ability to challenge SpaceX for in excess of two plus years. Contingent of course on the non-expendable FH having a few successful launches during that window of opportunity. Not exactly an enviable position for NASA brass when having to regularly testify before decision makers. I still expect Congress will uncomfortably keep the pork barrel rolling for a few more years.

 

[macpacheco]

Oh if we had an anti pork barrel/political corruption movement as strong as the pro gun movement.... One can wish.

 

[ecarfan]

It seems inevitable FH, BFR, New Glenn, or some combination of rockets will eventually supplant SLS.

Yes, eventually, but not before tens of billions more have been spent in those states with powerful senators (I’m looking at you, Dick Shelby).

The SLS may well fly once or twice. And by the time it does, the BFR and New Glenn will be flying for a fraction of the cost and the Congress will no longer countenance more money spent on SLS flights.

 

[Grendal]

The pressure is on and now SpaceX is driving all the others to compete with them. Mostly an article about ULA and their choice of engine for Vulcan. BE-4 versus AR-1.

Air Force stakes future on privately funded launch vehicles. Will the gamble pay off? - SpaceNews.com

 

[ecarfan]

Thanks for the link. ULA is in a tough spot. SpaceX is steadily increasing the pressure on them. Whatever engine ULA chooses for Vulcan, there are significant risks because those engines are still a ways from actually flying and time is running out for ULA...

 

[Grendal]

Thanks for the link. ULA is in a tough spot. SpaceX is steadily increasing the pressure on them. Whatever engine ULA chooses for Vulcan, there are significant risks because those engines are still a ways from actually flying and time is running out for ULA...

There hasn't been an article on it, and this is the closest one to make it clear, but I think the fact that the BE-4 is taking a long time to show ULA its full potential. Bezos is really in no rush whereas ULA wants to see that the BE-4 is what they need it to be. The other option is that the BE-4 is having real issues that aren't being resolved. If that is true then SpaceX's Raptor is well ahead of BE-4 even though Raptor is a much more complex, powerful, and efficient engine.

I fully expect that ULA will push to extend their timetables and beg Congress to give them a few more years with the RD-180. If that happens, then ULA is dead. The Aerojet AR-1 is a lost cause for the company if they choose that engine for some reason. A small save would be if BO and Bezos can't get the BE-4 to work properly and drops the New Glenn.

 

[mspohr]

Russia appears to have surrendered to SpaceX in the global launch market

Looks like Russia is giving up on commercial launches due to SpaceX

 

[ecarfan]

Looks like Russia is giving up on commercial launches due to SpaceX

Russian rockets now have no chance of winning commercial launch contracts outside of Russia. They are out of the game, and they lack the resources to develop a completely new, reusable, rocket. It’s a cruel state of affairs for highly talented Russian aerospace engineers, of which there are many.

 

[Grendal]

Moving on up...
Boeing, Lockheed, ULA corner the government-funded space market. SpaceX moving up - SpaceNews.com

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Debunking of disinformation
Boeing slams the Falcon Heavy rocket as “too small”

 

[ecarfan]

Debunking of disinformation
Boeing slams the Falcon Heavy rocket as “too small”

Thanks. As usual, Eric Berger at Ars Technica gets it right.

Boeing is being disingenuous in their criticism of the FH. The first version of the SLS will lift 70 tons to LEO while the FH lifts 64 tons, an insignificant difference. Future versions of the SLS are designed to lift more, but at this point there is no compelling reason to believe they will ever get built given the enormous cost and the fact that every SLS that launches is thrown away. The first BFRs will out perform the SLS and the BFR is 100% reusable.

It’s really that simple, in my opinion. The SLS is a shuffling zombie of a project. I feel sorry for the people who are working on it; they mean well and I’m glad they are employed but they are putting their energy into a dead end.

 

[scaesare]

Thanks. As usual, Eric Berger at Ars Technica gets it right.

Boeing is being disingenuous in their criticism of the FH. The first version of the SLS will lift 70 tons to LEO while the FH lifts 64 tons, an insignificant difference. Future versions of the SLS are designed to lift more, but at this point there is no compelling reason to believe they will ever get built given the enormous cost and the fact that every SLS that launches is thrown away. The first BFRs will out perform the SLS and the BFR is 100% reusable.

It’s really that simple, in my opinion. The SLS is a shuffling zombie of a project. I feel sorry for the people who are working on it; they mean well and I’m glad they are employed but they are putting their energy into a dead end.

Do Block 5 boosters increase FH's capability in the future?

 

[Grendal]

Do Block 5 boosters increase FH's capability in the future?

Definitely. 10% so far. I'd also bet that the first launch was the easiest launch profile possible. So there should be an overall improvement from what was learned from the data from the first launch.

Here is the (unofficial) list of Block 5 upgrades.

Another improvement in thrust for the Merlin 1D engines (roughly 10%).

• Titanium grid fins for unlimited re-uses.

• New landing legs with the ability to be retracted by the ground crew instead of having to be removed after landing. These legs will also be black instead of white.

• Changes to the turbopumps to prevent turbine wheel microfractures. This was never considered a risk by SpaceX but NASA asked SpaceX to fix the issue and from all reports they have.

• Replace paint with thermal protection barrier coating for the purposes of re-use.

• Improved heat shielding around the engines to improve re-usability.

• The octaweb (structure that holds the engines) will be bolted instead of welded, to reduce time for inspection/repair/refurbishment and to allow easy change from F9 to FH side booster.

• The interstage will be black instead of white - likely unpainted carbon fiber (saves time and weight).

• Upgraded fairing, Fairing 2.0, which is very slightly larger and has changes to allow for recovery and re-use. It is also easier to make and lighter than the previous fairings.

• SpaceX's upgraded COPVs (dubbed COPV 2.0) will fly on Block V. This is an upgrade to further reduce the potential for an incident like Amos-6.

• The rocket will be man-rated, meaning it will be certified to carry crew. NASA has set the bar at 7 successful flights of the rocket for certification.

• Upgrades to active components such as valves, as well as many other parts to allow for many re-uses.

• Improved flight control, angle-of-attack, and control authority which should allow for landings with less fuel (and therefore the ability to land after lofting heavier payloads).

 

[scaesare]

Definitely. 10% so far. I'd also bet that the first launch was the easiest launch profile possible. So there should be an overall improvement from what was learned from the data from the first launch.

Here is the (unofficial) list of Block 5 upgrades.

Another improvement in thrust for the Merlin 1D engines (roughly 10%).

• Titanium grid fins for unlimited re-uses.

• New landing legs with the ability to be retracted by the ground crew instead of having to be removed after landing. These legs will also be black instead of white.

• Changes to the turbopumps to prevent turbine wheel microfractures. This was never considered a risk by SpaceX but NASA asked SpaceX to fix the issue and from all reports they have.

• Replace paint with thermal protection barrier coating for the purposes of re-use.

• Improved heat shielding around the engines to improve re-usability.

• The octaweb (structure that holds the engines) will be bolted instead of welded, to reduce time for inspection/repair/refurbishment and to allow easy change from F9 to FH side booster.

• The interstage will be black instead of white - likely unpainted carbon fiber (saves time and weight).

• Upgraded fairing, Fairing 2.0, which is very slightly larger and has changes to allow for recovery and re-use. It is also easier to make and lighter than the previous fairings.

• SpaceX's upgraded COPVs (dubbed COPV 2.0) will fly on Block V. This is an upgrade to further reduce the potential for an incident like Amos-6.

• The rocket will be man-rated, meaning it will be certified to carry crew. NASA has set the bar at 7 successful flights of the rocket for certification.

• Upgrades to active components such as valves, as well as many other parts to allow for many re-uses.

• Improved flight control, angle-of-attack, and control authority which should allow for landings with less fuel (and therefore the ability to land after lofting heavier payloads).

I wonder what the real world delta between FH and SLS version(s) may end up being....

 

[Cosmacelf]

I wonder what the real world delta between FH and SLS version(s) may end up being....

Maybe infinite. Will the SLS actually launch?

 

[ecarfan]

I think SLS Block 1 will launch in a few years. The program has tremendous inertia. Whether there will be any subsequent launches is questionable. If SpaceX can get the first BFR into LEO in 4 years that could finally bring Congress to its senses with the realization that alternative heavy lift vehicles are available and vastly more affordable, and there will be enough Congresspeople who don’t have a financial interest in SLS to kill the program.

 

[mongo]

Maybe infinite. Will the SLS actually launch?

Not the second time...

 

[Grendal]

I'll post this one here since it was a competed bid contract and SpaceX won. However it could also be posted under Falcon Heavy or New Satellite Contracts.

SpaceX wins a military Falcon Heavy launch for $130 million. Planned for launch in mid-2020. Also significant is the fact that FH is now certified for military contracts and launches.

U.S. Air Force certifies Falcon Heavy rocket, awards launch contract – Spaceflight Now

 

[Cosmacelf]

Wow, that was a fast certification. I guess ULA’s lobbying isn’t working as well as it used to. Or SpaceX’s is working better.

 

[Doug_G]

Hard to argue with ~1/3 the price. Also a Falcon Heavy is basically a “version” of F9 so they must have considered it as applicable to the launch history.