Super Bulls Only

[Buckminster]

Without 007 making any appearances, we need to get our swagger back, now that there are almost zero uncertainties on Tesla achieving greatness. I will make a start:

April 2019 following Q1 earnings, Model Y event yada yada
SP = $700

June 2019 following Q2 S&P inclusion
SP = $1000

Is anyone brave enough to outbid me? Stupid enough gets you no points - that is what I'm here for.

Talking about stupid, I have to change my J19 300s for something a little longer term so I would appreciate your consensus on the $700 figure before pulling the trigger mid November (Jun 19 or J20, 300s?).

 

[jasonb]

not brave. but you forgot potential AP demo. I have aug 450's and 500's in case la -> ny demo happens. then waymo evaluation becomes a comp in addition to everything you mentioned.

 

[EVNow]

Talking about stupid, I have to change my J19 300s for something a little longer term so I would appreciate your consensus on the $700 figure before pulling the trigger mid November (Jun 19 or J20, 300s?).

It really doesn't matter what the SP will be I April '19. Whether it is $700 or $400 - the calls will move higher, and you take your profits and roll forward. That's the way I look at it. Obviously, the higher the SP, the more you will make.

The strike price itself - is a little tricky. To me it depends on the ROI. Whatever gets me good leverage (without it being too risky because of short expiration date). For J19 it looked like 350 & 400 were the best bets. That's what I've now.

I've been looking at Mar'19 - may be 350,400 or 450 calls.

June or J20 or even J21 are all fine - except the leverage and thus the ROI goes down. Obviously they are less risky.

 

[SpaceCash]

I hold multiple $700 strike August calls... this thing is just super hard to predict but I really believe "fair" value sits at about $200 billion market cap right now, and I believe that the market could possibly support a $400 billion valuation if the FUD machine stops. I 70% expect a short squeeze like the VW/Porsche squeeze to occur at any time at all between now and summer. The ~30 million shares shorted will have to be dealt with in some way. They will try very very hard to avoid covering fairly, and will/(already tried?) enlist the SEC to help them with this huge problem they have

 

[Ellec]

Got mainly Feb/March 2019 calls around $500, bought them during go private so they were only a few cents so leveraged very high. Small chance it goes over by then but if it does I win big. Will probably roll on next spike up as it's just a bit too high, to Aug 2019, always like to keep 3-4 months out.

March is good because it will have Q4 results and hype of Model Y.

The Q3 figures though point to a multi-month climb like 2013, could go to $600 if Q4 numbers are similarly good.

I have un-leveraged shares as my long-term Tesla investment, not selling them till 2030. This is just a lottery play.

 

[adiggs]

Got mainly Feb/March 2019 calls around $500, bought them during go private so they were only a few cents so leveraged very high. Small chance it goes over by then but if it does I win big. Will probably roll on next spike up as it's just a bit too high, to Aug 2019, always like to keep 3-4 months out.

March is good because it will have Q4 results and hype of Model Y.

The Q3 figures though point to a multi-month climb like 2013, could go to $600 if Q4 numbers are similarly good.

I have un-leveraged shares as my long-term Tesla investment, not selling them till 2030. This is just a lottery play.

Comparing back to 2013, instead of a ~300s to 600s move, I'd view this as more like a 300s to 1800s sized move (at least, that's what I think is lined up). The way I see 2013, a period arrived where the market collectively realized that TSLA was badly valued. At that point, the market went searching for a new / collective valuation that was disconnected from the previous trading history and valuation.

That new valuation was found in the 130 to 180 trading range (or using today's starting point, 1300 to 1800).

 

[SpaceCash]

Testing/breaking $400 this week is, I feel, assured

 

[dw4ngg]

I also think Tom Brady and the Patriots are worthy of a thread, but why in a Tesla forum?

They didn’t even win last yr for Christ’s sake...

 

[heltok]

So if Tesla keep operating costs flat and they double model 3 production with same ASP, what kind of profits are we looking at?

 

[SpaceCash]

So if Tesla keep operating costs flat and they double model 3 production with same ASP, what kind of profits are we looking at?

scientifically speaking, a shitload of profits

 

[Cattledog]

scientifically speaking, a shitload of profits

I think they said they could get to 7,000/week without significant CapEx, so perhaps 1/2 a shitload.

 

[mongo]

scientifically speaking, a shitload of profits

@wipster , I need a conversion, what is that is dimes?

 

[EinSV]

I am very bullish on Tesla's long-term prospects but personally prefer stock to options (whether short-term or LEAPs) since with options you can be 100% correct on the long-term direction but get wiped out by short or medium term price drops. The macro environment feels pretty shaky right now. Not an advice.

 

[Ellec]

I am very bullish on Tesla's long-term prospects but personally prefer stock to options (whether short-term or LEAPs) since with options you can be 100% correct on the long-term direction but get wiped out by short or medium term price drops. The macro environment feels pretty shaky right now. Not an advice.

However, stocks result is less profit if you get a big move up. LEAPS are equivalent to stock really unlikely price will drop and remain there for years. I have both stocks for very long-term (20 years) and LEAPS for 6 months to 2 years rolling. The idea is trying to capture big moves using LEAPS then put some of the profits into stock and roll options forward.

 

[wipster]

@wipster , I need a conversion, what is that is dimes?

I would think that would be a gross shitpotfull of profits... and that's all I have to say about that!

 

[wipster]

@wipster , I need a conversion, what is that is dimes?

Also, the question we will soon need to answer is what is a shitpotfull in Yuan? Wonder if the Google translator can do that conversation...

 

[anthonyj]

Am I a super bull

 

[SpaceCash]

Am I a super bull

why no february calls?

 

[Ellec]

why no february calls?

I think it's safer to have calls all after next Q numbers, Feb and March 19 calls are as early as I would take.

 

[anthonyj]

why no february calls?

Because I feel that if it’s going to run up big, it will do so now. I feel like the bull market is ending. All the dumb money fleeing tech and weed stocks are going into Tesla. Wall Street knows this. They also know that short interest is still obscenely high. Tesla will be a $100b company very soon, even if temporarily.