Supercharger - Newark, DE

[kort677]

With holiday approaching, bad time for this SC to be down......could impact my NC to NY run....

it shouldn't be that much of an impact if you plan your trip well.

 

[Lanny]

Newark "Temporary Closure" is about to enter its fourth day.

P. S. Bethesda is due to close in six days.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

I am skeptical of the current model of SCing going forward.

Let's do some back-of-the-envelope calculations:

In the US, there are currently ~280 SC stations with ~1400 chargers for ~70K Teslas, a charger:car ratio of approximately 50:1

Let's say Musk hits his target of 500K cars per year by 2018. That means by the end of 2019 there will about ten times the current number of Teslas on the road in the US (assuming the US maintains its current rate of 60% of total sales). Let's also generously suppose Tesla doubles the number of SCs (which I think is extremely unlikely). Then by 2019 that's a ratio of 250:1. That practially guarantees routine waiting lines in the busier urban centers. Any Newark-like outages in 2019 will be absolutely catastrophic. (This doesn't even take into account the likelihood that future Tesla owners are presumably going to be less technophile/early-adopter in their philosophy.)

This is why I think the model of Tesla-built free Supercharging Centers is unsustainable. I think there is going to have to be some sort of partnering/franchising arrangements in place to build up the network.

I think your general concerns (that supercharger access may become so crowded that waiting for a spot becomes routine) are shared by many. However I think many owners have 330 days of the year wherein they charge at home over night, use the car during the day, lather, rinse, repeat. The other 35 days out of the year they take a road trip they use superchargers.

I have made recent 1,500 mile road trips (New Orleans to Denver) using 18 different superchargers each way while only seeing ONE other Tesla the entire round trip. So, with the exception of a few bottlenecks (like Newark, DE) or extremely busy holiday travel, overcrowding at most superchargers is still a long way off.

Mike

 

[jdo]

I'll stop you here. You're approximation assumes all cars will charge and drive at the same time. All of the superchargers I visit aren't utilized to 100% capacity.

I did no such thing. I calculated an approximation for the present ratio of cars to chargers. That in turn translates to charger occupancy rates (which in turn depends on geography, distribution of cars, time of day, etc. ), and most importantly, a frequency when there are no chargers available.

That frequency doesn't have to be very high before it becomes limiting. Think about Newark before the expansion. How often did people have to wait for a charge? Again, I don't have the number, but a SWAG is that anywhere above 5% would be enough to be unacceptable.

Queuing theory is also not linear, so a doubling of supercharger can handle a lot more than double the load.

True, but what is the magic ratio? Newark did great going from 4 to 12 chargers, but will that still work if we now increase the number of Teslas but a factor of 5? And that's just through 2019, so presumably that ratio will continue to go up.

I'm sure that Tesla knows the actual data and has thought about it. I'm just not sure that the plan is for the current SC system to be the solution.

 

[sashner]

With the SCs at the Molly Pitcher rest stop on the NJTP, there's really no reason to need to divert off-route to Hamilton Marketplace anymore.

Can you make it from there to DC in a 90D?

What's your plan to get back home?

Staying at a hotel in DC with a tesla HPWC. Was going to charge before leaving and stop at Molly Pritchard.

 

[ggnykk]

View attachment 182589

Newark "Temporary Closure" is about to enter its fourth day.

P. S. Bethesda is due to close in six days.

why is Bethesda closing? adding more stalls?

 

[jdo]

I think your general concerns (that supercharger access may become so crowded that waiting for a spot becomes routine) are shared by many. However I think many owners have 330 days of the year wherein they charge at home over night, use the car during the day, lather, rinse, repeat. The other 35 days out of the year they take a road trip they use superchargers.

I have made recent 1,500 mile road trips (New Orleans to Denver) using 18 different superchargers each way while only seeing ONE other Tesla the entire round trip. So, with the exception of a few bottlenecks (like Newark, DE) or extremely busy holiday travel, overcrowding at most superchargers is still a long way off.

Mike

I agree that this isn't going to be an everyday problem. The question is what is the threshold level at which it will become a show-stopper?

My guess is that, because of the significant charge times, the tolerance for waiting for a charge will be low. Let's say the average time long-distance travelers will spend at a charger is 30 minutes. One metric might be, what percentage of the time do you have to wait >=15 minutes for a charge? I suspect that 1% would be considered a minor nuisance, but 10% would be unacceptable.

 

[Lanny]

why is Bethesda closing? adding more stalls?

Bethesda was a temporary Supercharger. It is being decommissioned on June 30.

A new supercharger with eight stalls is under construction in Laurel Maryland between Washington DC and Baltimore.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Anyone who have used other non-Tesla charging infrastructure know that it is a huge pain in the butt. Do you want to subscribe to 4 different networks that have horrible reliability issue, and it charger slower and isn't as easy as Tesla charging?

This is true. Speculation is that CHAdeMO is an acronym in French for "Doesn't Work Well"

 

[ggnykk]

Bethesda was a temporary Supercharger. It is being decommissioned on June 30.

A new supercharger with eight stalls is under construction in Laurel Maryland between Washington DC and Baltimore.

I know about the supercharger at Laurel. But given the expanding number of Tesla, they should expand Bethesda instead of taking it down. At least build another one somewhere along highway 270.

 

[paulkva]

Can you make it from there to DC in a 90D?
Staying at a hotel in DC with a tesla HPWC. Was going to charge before leaving and stop at Molly Pritchard.

EVTripPlanner says ~199 rated miles from Molly Pitcher to the center of DC. Add more for weather, speed, traffic, etc -- I'd suggest you range charge at Molly Pitcher as well if Newark is still down and Laurel isn't open yet.
The return trip to Joyce Kilmer is ~206 rated miles, so you likely want to range charge on the HPWC if you can.

Or use Hamilton to save 10-20 rated miles each way, but it is a few extra minutes off the NJTP.

 

[WATTS-UP]

If Tesla can send you an update they can also notify everyone that Newark is down, that way you don't show up at Newark just to find out
that you now have to spend four hours at the L2 by the truck parking. If a truck ran over one charging station why not shut down the damaged set.

I never checked to see if any of the Superchargers are down, it was never an issue, it is now. So now I'll check before I go on a long
trip. It still does not answer the question why it is taking so long to get the chargers up and running, four days is a bit much.

 

[paulkva]

This is true. Speculation is that CHAdeMO is an acronym in French for "Doesn't Work Well"

I was pleasantly surprised by the relatively high PlugShare scores of the Royal Farms CHAdeMO chargers along the I-95 corridor in MD. There's also a Flying J travel stop in NJ near the 295/NJTP split with a CHAdeMO and high PlugShare score. That's making me consider buying a CHAdeMO adapter as much as the Newark outage is doing so, i.e. it looks like CHAdeMO is becoming a more viable alternative along that route. And yes, I know it's still inferior to supercharging in terms of speed and queueing -- and reliability in aggregate.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

I was pleasantly surprised by the relatively high PlugShare scores of the Royal Farms CHAdeMO chargers along the I-95 corridor in MD. There's also a Flying J travel stop in NJ near the 295/NJTP split with a CHAdeMO and high PlugShare score. That's making me consider buying a CHAdeMO adapter as much as the Newark outage is doing so, i.e. it looks like CHAdeMO is becoming a more viable alternative along that route. And yes, I know it's still inferior to supercharging in terms of speed and queueing -- and reliability in aggregate.

Unfortunately, in my (admittedly rather limited) experience with my CHAdeMO adapter I would estimate it did not work more than 50% of the time I attempted to use it. Maybe that is improving as I really haven't had to use it for the last year or so with the rapid expansion of the Supercharger Network in my area.

The problems ranged from "Error Code XXXXX" displaying on the inoperable charger, CHAdeMO chargers that were "light duty" and obviously not designed to charge Teslas at full power for an hour or more (they would overheat and shut down with clogged tiny little air filters) and other unexplained errors that often required calling the service provider in attempts at resolution.

Using the CHAdeMO adapter (usually requiring multiple different accounts to activate and be charged) made me REALLY appreciate what Tesla has done with the Supercharger Network. It's game changing, IMO.

Mike

EDIT: Good Plugshare reviews is encouraging!

 

[Lanny]

The early CHAdeMO chargers, especially the Nissan branded units, are notorious for overheating and other issues. The newer systems, like the one in this photo which have been getting the high scores that @paulkva mentioned, are much more reliable. The newest trend is liquid cooled chargers and installing two units side by side for redundancy.

 

[PV_Dave]

CHAdeMO chargers have certainly improved. I remember when we had our Leaf that 50% chance of success was optimistic, but we've only had one failure in the last 7 CHAdeMO attempts..

I convinced my wife to use Royal Farms in Joppa, MD yesterday, and I just got back from charging my Mom's car at the Flying J across the bridge in NJ, so she'd have enough charge to get back to Maryland. Both worked flawlessly.

 

[paulkva]

Unfortunately, in my (admittedly rather limited) experience with my CHAdeMO adapter I would estimate it did not work more than 50% of the time I attempted to use it. Maybe that is improving as I really haven't had to use it for the last year or so with the rapid expansion of the Supercharger Network in my area.

The problems ranged from "Error Code XXXXX" displaying on the inoperable charger, CHAdeMO chargers that were "light duty" and obviously not designed to charge Teslas at full power for an hour or more (they would overheat and shut down with clogged tiny little air filters) and other unexplained errors that often required calling the service provider in attempts at resolution.

Using the CHAdeMO adapter (usually requiring multiple different accounts to activate and be charged) made me REALLY appreciate what Tesla has done with the Supercharger Network. It's game changing, IMO.

Mike

EDIT: Good Plugshare reviews is encouraging!

Right, that's pretty much my point: Given the historically low reliability of CHAdeMO stations, combined with the rapid growth and historically high reliability of superchargers, I hadn't really felt a need to buy a CHAdeMO adapter. I've read countless stories here on TMC over the past ~3 years about unreliable CHAdeMO stations, and of course when I browse PlugShare I frequently see ratings for CHAdeMO locations so low that the number turns grey. (Ironically, that's precisely what's happening now with the Newark Supercharger, whose score is down to 2.4, and someone has renamed it "Super-NO-charger.") The Royal Farms and Flying J stations I mentioned earlier still only have 1-2 plugs each, which can be a problem for queueing or reliability, but they're rated in the 8.8-10 range so they seem much more trustworthy than most CHAdeMO stations I've seen.

@PV_Dave: thanks for the additional data points.

 

[PeterK]

I'm sure that Tesla knows the actual data and has thought about it. I'm just not sure that the plan is for the current SC system to be the solution.

A big piece of the solution is destination charging. If you're able to charge overnight during travel, and before you head home, you reduce the number and duration of supercharger stops needed. I'm not just referring to Tesla's program at hotels, but also charging at friends' and relatives' homes one might stay at. As EV penetration increases you will be far more likely to find a 240v plug or charger in the garage/driveway. At some point they will become ubiquitous.

I regularly drive to visit my mother in NYC for quick overnight trips but can only charge at 120v in her garage so need to stop sooner/more/for longer duration on my way back to Boston. Unfortunately her house's aged electrical system is at capacity.

 

[Max*]

Can you make it from there to DC in a 90D?

You can make it there on a range charge from Northern Virginia (more miles than from DC) in a *70D* in the summer going 75mph.

I'm too stubborn to slow down in the winter, so I usually stop by Newark for 5 mins. But I'm sure if I slow down to 70mph or even 65mph, you can make it in the winter too.

So to answer your question, 100% yes.

 

[Max*]

True, but what is the magic ratio? Newark did great going from 4 to 12 chargers, but will that still work if we now increase the number of Teslas but a factor of 5? And that's just through 2019, so presumably that ratio will continue to go up.

When you triple the number of stalls, line Newark did, you increase capacity by 6x

Capacity of Superchargers Using an Erlang-B Model

I'm not a queuing theory expert, I only visited it a high level. So if he made a mistake in the nitty gritty, I'll take an experts word on it.