Tesla autopilot HW3

[electronblue]

Yeah, I was super enthusiastic then and I am still very enthusiastic now, especially with AP3 coming out.

Just to double check:

It is now May 2019 and there are NO features out there that require FSD pack (as defined above EAP), right? So nothing in August 2018, just like we got nothing in July 2017, the first FSD feature promise from Musk.

It actually seems plausible many of the AP2 cars will hit three years before the first FSD feature reaches them.

 

[diplomat33]

Around here, the only people allowed are: 1) grumpy old men, and 2) entitled millennials complaining about the latest price drops.

I'm neither.

 

[diplomat33]

Just to double check:

It is now May 2019 and there are NO features out there that require FSD pack (as defined above EAP), right? So nothing in August 2018, just like we got nothing in July, 2017, the first FSD feature promise from Musk.

It actually seems plausible many of the AP2 cars will hit three years before the first FSD feature reaches them.

The first true FSD features (requiring the FSD computer) are coming later this year based on everything we know.

How do we know it will actually happen this time and isn't going to be another missed timeline or failed promise? Because Tesla has the actual FSD computer in cars now and Tesla conducted test drives demonstrating those FSD features working. So yeah, the fact that Tesla has shown the FSD features working and shown the FSD computer that they work on, shows that they are close to releasing those features now.

And another thing. We now have what I might call "pre-FSD" features on our cars, features like NOA and the stop light warning. These are features that are precursors to FSD. We already got NOA without stalk confirmation on the highway and NOA is used on city streets in the FSD demo. So we know NOA is a precursor that will lead to FSD.

 

[electronblue]

The first true FSD features (requiring the FSD computer) are coming later this year based on everything we know.

How do we know it will actually happen this time and isn't going to be another missed timeline or failed promise? Because Tesla has the actual FSD computer in cars now and Tesla conducted test drives demonstrating those FSD features working. So yeah, the fact that Tesla has shown the FSD features working and shown the FSD computer that they work on, shows that they are close to releasing those features now.

Be that as it may they don’t have that FSD computer in our cars — the people who actually paid for the features years ago and who were victims of the missed timelines. With Tesla’s financing woes, how aggressive you think they’ll be pursuing these retrofits?

It is not hard to see a scenario given the full roll-out where AP2 cars will end their leases before receiving a single FSD feature. I mean we don’t have EAP’s Smart Summon in wide distribution yet either... how long till the full fleet has that?

Again, we were promised ”definitely” FSD differentiating features by July 2017. Then again by August 2018. Now you’re suggesting we need to wait for a FSD computer retrofit... timeline completely open...

 

[conman]

It actually seems plausible many of the AP2 cars will hit three years before the first FSD feature reaches them.

And that's just USA. It could be four years or even more for those of us outside North America. We're getting close to a year behind on autopilot features.

 

[tufa4311]

I'll say something totally crazy - I want FSD and can't wait till "we" get it but, I'm just going to wait, I'm going to wait until I see it, the real McCoy, out on the roads - yes, I'll have to pay more, maybe loads more, but it could be years, it's just not worth the wait IF what you seek in real FSD...

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I'll say something totally crazy - I want FSD and can't wait till "we" get it but, I'm just going to wait, I'm going to wait until I see it, the real McCoy, out on the roads - yes, I'll have to pay more, maybe loads more, but it could be years, it's just not worth the wait IF what you seek in real FSD...

I'm going to wait for the next fire sale before pulling the trigger. Overall, things look like "this time could be different," but you never know when Tesla might want to pad their earnings in a quarter. We'll see.

 

[diplomat33]

Be that as it may they don’t have that FSD computer in our cars — the people who actually paid for the features years ago and who were victims of the missed timelines. With Tesla’s financing woes, how aggressive you think they’ll be pursuing these retrofits?

It is not hard to see a scenario given the full roll-out where AP2 cars will end their leases before receiving a single FSD feature. I mean we don’t have EAP’s Smart Summon in wide distribution yet either... how long till the full fleet has that?

Again, we were promised ”definitely” FSD differentiating features by July 2017. Then again by August 2018. Now you’re suggesting we need to wait for a FSD computer retrofit... timeline completely open...

1) I get that it sucks for customers who had a lease and never got FSD but as the saying goes, "better late than never". Tesla does not have a time machine to go back and do things differently, so at this point, the best that Tesla can do is work hard and deliver FSD to customers going forward which they are doing.

2) At the risk of sounding callous, leases are short term, 3 years. Folks who got a lease when AP2 was first released, had to know that it was a huge long shot to get FSD before their lease was up. And Tesla always said that FSD depended on "regulatory approval" and they could not guarantee when it would be available. The old FSD page did not have any timeline for FSD. And even in the most optimistic scenario, if Tesla had kept all their FSD promises, they still would only have had about 2 years of enjoyment of FSD before their lease was up. It was always a horrible idea to buy FSD on a lease. Now, folks who outright purchased their AP2 cars will get the AP3 upgrade and will get FSD features. So they are good.

 

[diplomat33]

I'll say something totally crazy - I want FSD and can't wait till "we" get it but, I'm just going to wait, I'm going to wait until I see it, the real McCoy, out on the roads - yes, I'll have to pay more, maybe loads more, but it could be years, it's just not worth the wait IF what you seek in real FSD...

I could never do that. I would go crazy as soon as the first videos of the first FSD features come out and I was missing out.

 

[tufa4311]

I could never do that. I would go crazy as soon as the first videos of the first FSD features come out and I was missing out.

I understand what you mean, but what does "first FSD features" mean - I'm not interested in first FSD features, I'm interested in FSD. I want it to stop and start on city street lights and stop signs. From my perspective it's FSD or it's not - there is no in between - it's either Level 4/5 or it's Level 2 with some pretty stuff. He says you'll be able to get in, enter a destination, then you're done. That's FSD...I'm waiting.

 

[tufa4311]

I understand what you mean, but what does "first FSD features" mean - I'm not interested in first FSD features, I'm interested in FSD. I want it to stop and start on city street lights and stop signs. From my perspective it's FSD or it's not - there is no in between - it's either Level 4/5 or it's Level 2 with some pretty stuff. He says you'll be able to get in, enter a destination, then you're done. That's FSD...I'm waiting.

Neither of us are right or wrong, we just want different things. I want FSD, you are interested in all the touchy feely on the way to FSD (and FSD as well of course)

 

[diplomat33]

I understand what you mean, but what does "first FSD features" mean - I'm not interested in first FSD features, I'm interested in FSD. I want it to stop and start on city street lights and stop signs. From my perspective it's FSD or it's not - there is no in between - it's either Level 4/5 or it's Level 2 with some pretty stuff. He says you'll be able to get in, enter a destination, then you're done. That's FSD...I'm waiting.

Well, remember that there are only 2 future FSD features listed on the website. Stopping and starting at traffic lights and stop signs is the first future FSD feature listed on the website. In fact, we will probably get that particular feature this year. The second future FSD feature listed on the website is "automatic city driving" which is essentially an advanced version of NOA on city streets, where the car will navigate city streets to a destination, change lanes and turn at intersections. Those two features combined give you complete FSD that you are describing, since the car will be able to navigate city streets, stop and go at traffic lights and stop signs, change lanes and turn at intersections.

Neither of us are right or wrong, we just want different things. I want FSD, you are interested in all the touchy feely on the way to FSD (and FSD as well of course)

Yes, we want different things. You want the finished product. I am excited for the journey.

 

[tufa4311]

Well, remember that there are only 2 future FSD features listed on the website. Stopping and starting at traffic lights and stop signs is the first future FSD feature listed on the website. In fact, we will probably get that particular feature this year.

I'm new to all this but I've read a million times, including on this forum, that there have been promises to get to this point and that point for at least a couple years. Based on the actual deliveries, or lack thereof, how can you be confident about "later this year"? Do you honestly believe it'll be doing city driving this year? (again, based on past promises and deliveries)

 

[tufa4311]

Do you honestly believe it'll be doing city driving this year? (again, based on past promises and deliveries)

Sorry, not "city driving" but stop/start at lights/stop signs in the next 7 months.

 

[diplomat33]

I'm new to all this but I've read a million times, including on this forum, that there have been promises to get to this point and that point for at least a couple years. Based on the actual deliveries, or lack thereof, how can you be confident about "later this year"? Do you honestly believe it'll be doing city driving this year? (again, based on past promises and deliveries)

No, I said the "stopping and going at traffic lights and stop signs" would be this year, not automatic city driving.

We already have traffic light recognition in our cars now, it just needs to be reliable enough that Tesla can actually take the next step of telling the car to stop on its own at a red light. And the test drives shows that they got part working too. So yeah, I think they can do that extra part in the next 6-7 months. Again, I am not talking about automatic city driving this year, just the stopping at traffic lights part.

But I am confident because Tesla did not AP3 or a working alpha version of FSD before. Based on the Autonomy Investor Day, they do now. That's the big difference.

 

[diplomat33]

Sorry, not "city driving" but stop/start at lights/stop signs in the next 7 months.

yes, see my previous post. Tesla already has traffic light recognition in our cars now, they just haven't enabled the stopping part yet until it becomes more reliable. And the test drives show that it is working. So yeah, I think they can finish the last part of that feature in the next 7 months.

 

[Snuffysasa]

Again, we were promised ”definitely” FSD differentiating features by July 2017. Then again by August 2018. Now you’re suggesting we need to wait for a FSD computer retrofit... timeline completely open...

Something Elon tweets when he is high is not a promise from the Tesla Autopilot team

 

[tufa4311]

No, I said the "stopping and going at traffic lights and stop signs" would be this year, not automatic city driving.

As I'm new, would you mind clarifying the difference. When the stop/start at stop signs/lights comes out, but before city driving, what will it not be able to do while doing the stopping and starting? Will it follow nav destination while doing this? Is it that it will just go down one street, stopping and starting, but not being able to make the turns - is that the main difference?

 

[Snuffysasa]

yes, see my previous post. Tesla already has traffic light recognition in our cars now, they just haven't enabled the stopping part yet until it becomes more reliable. And the test drives show that it is working. So yeah, I think they can finish the last part of that feature in the next 7 months.

Yea.... all they have to do is flip a boolean....

I'd be pretty surprised if they didn't.

There is an argument they may holdback a feature if its not working well yet... but it's not like this feature really adds any risk that wasn't already there... already Tesla autopilot would run a red light if user is not paying attention... and slowing coming to a stop when its not supposed to be isn't much a risk too if there is a driver there. (well no more risk than anything that autopilot already does)

 

[diplomat33]

As I'm new, would you mind clarifying the difference. When the stop/start at stop signs/lights comes out, but before city driving, what will it not be able to do while doing the stopping and starting? Will it follow nav destination while doing this? Is it that it will just go down one street, stopping and starting, but not being able to make the turns - is that the main difference?

We are kinda in uncharted waters, I will admit, since nobody knows exactly how Tesla will roll out these features. However, Tesla did separate the two features on the website. So my take is that the stop and go at traffic lights feature will work like Autopilot works now on city streets except that AP will be able to also stop on its own at a red light. So yes, as you said, it will just go down one street, stopping and starting but not make turns. At first. This will give us the advantage of being able to use AP on city streets with a bit more convenience, that we won't need to disengage when coming up on a red light. Then later, Tesla will add the ability to also make turns at intersections and change lanes to get to a destination as part of the "automatic city driving" feature. That's how envision it working.