I've been a 'FW Refusenik' for several years now. Sure, there are new features added each time, but overall, the software, and especially the UI gets worse and worse and worse. 6 to 7, 7 to 8, 8 to 9, and 9 to 10 -- each time the UI suffered. And not in little nit-picky ways, but serious "WTAF were they thinking?" ways. Serious safety critical ways.
So I still put it off for as long as humanely possible. And then since they forced an update on me last year, damn, that's the last time I'll ever update the FW myself. If they want to get rid of old FW on my car, they'll have to force it on me (again).
That's what's so confusing about this message (I too got it a few days ago). They pretend they're asking nicely for YOU to update the FW, but we all know the threat of 'no access' is entirely empty, because come April 30th, I'll bet that Tesla forces the new update on anyone else holding out (me included). If for some reason I actually lose connectivity, I'll go into the SC and get the latest update there. But I think it's all empty threats, honestly and they just want people to update to a more current version. I don't think they'll actually turn off the VPN on May 1st.
A couple of years ago, a Tesla employee (or may have been an ex-employee) told me that there's one guy at Tesla who keeps track of every single car and the FW installed. And he told me that it really grinds this guy's gears when people won't update. Too bad, Sam.