Tesla Compact Hatch Coming?

[MD-2000]

Unfortunately, the boxy shape of most compact hatchback cars that makes them good for throwing stuff in them is not very aerodynamic. The only reason they get reasonably good gas mileage is because they are lightweight and have small cross sectional area. The light weight doesn't benefit an EV as much as it does the inefficient ICE.
I hope whatever Tesla (or anyone else) comes out with meets your needs.

Two issues - it's hard to make a smaller (shorter) car and still have headroom for the back seat passengers. My 1990 Honda Civi barely qualified for an adult. It's worse if they try to curve the back downward like the 3. OTOH the 1990 Civic hatchback had a small wing-like deflector on the back to ppush air down the back of the car, minimizing drag-creating turbulence.

The other problem is - being an EV. The batteries will be heavy, even for a small car. That in turn means heftier suspension, thicker components like wheels and suspension. Plus, Tesla likes to build a decent level of safety. So the vehicle will be inherently heavier.

My thought is - aim for half the battery of a 3 or Y, so about 40kWh? That reduces the weight. Things like engine - make it smaller and lighter - don't aim for Model 3 level superperformance, as long as its peppier than a Honda Fit or a Versa...

 

[Buckminster]

The other problem is - being an EV. The batteries will be heavy

I expect Tesla to deliver a virtuous spiral of weight savings. I think they will get down to 30kWh as the base vehicle won't have nearly the same range as a MY SR. That saves a lot. The structure will be lighter with castings etc. Maybe plastic shell. Also 4680 V3s will be lighter again.

 

[Earl]

I think they will get down to 30kWh

Remember that a smaller battery needs to survive a lot more cycles. It isn't clear that a short range EV really works. You end up having to replace the batteries more often, effectively buying the same amount of batteries over the car's lifetime as if you had good range from the beginning.

 

[Buckminster]

Remember that a smaller battery needs to survive a lot more cycles. It isn't clear that a short range EV really works. You end up having to replace the batteries more often, effectively buying the same amount of batteries over the car's lifetime as if you had good range from the beginning.

Target is million mile battery - I don't see this as a problem. Smaller battery = more EVs.

 

[gtae07]

Remember that a smaller battery needs to survive a lot more cycles. It isn't clear that a short range EV really works. You end up having to replace the batteries more often, effectively buying the same amount of batteries over the car's lifetime as if you had good range from the beginning.

And before someone comes out with "but the average daily drive is 30-something miles", that's average, not maximum. There are plenty of people who drive more than that every day, plenty of people who average that far but do it by not driving at all some days and driving much further on others. Even with a good supercharger network a super short range EV will be a PITA on any kind of trip. And anyone not able to charge at home every night is really going to want something that can last a couple days' worth of driving between charges, just like nobody wants an ICE car that has to be filled up every day.

I see a 220-250 mile EPA range as being about the floor for a practical mass-market consumer EV that someone will be willing to pay new-car pricing for.

Edit: I see a few of Ford Fiestas in our neighborhood. Something that size with a 220-240 mile LFP pack could be really successful.

 

[T3SLAROD]

And before someone comes out with "but the average daily drive is 30-something miles", that's average, not maximum. There are plenty of people who drive more than that every day, plenty of people who average that far but do it by not driving at all some days and driving much further on others. Even with a good supercharger network a super short range EV will be a PITA on any kind of trip. And anyone not able to charge at home every night is really going to want something that can last a couple days' worth of driving between charges, just like nobody wants an ICE car that has to be filled up every day.

I see a 220-250 mile EPA range as being about the floor for a practical mass-market consumer EV that someone will be willing to pay new-car pricing for.

Edit: I see a few of Ford Fiestas in our neighborhood. Something that size with a 220-240 mile LFP pack could be really successful.

I agree. My commute is about 150 on a daily, if I have to run an errand once I come back from work anywhere 30 miles + I need to SC. What if I am on a time crunch?

 

[Earl]

Target is million mile battery - I don't see this as a problem. Smaller battery = more EVs.

Good point, however, the details (denominators) matter. If the battery pack goes goes 100 miles on a charge, that's 10,000 cycles which is a bit beyond today's state of the art. If it goes 1,000 miles on a charge, a million miles is only 1,000 cycles. Of course a million miles on a charge; that's only 1 cycle of the battery - pretty easy.
As you see, the range for a car is a function of the desired lifetime miles and the cycle life of the batteries. Range = Lifetime miles/cycle life.
As we get batteries with more cycle life, we can get cheaper EVs, until then, there's a minimum cost of the car (batteries, at least), that we can't rush, no matter how badly we'd like to.

 

[MD-2000]

There might be some for whom a low-range in-city car is a practical second car, but for a lot will also want a practical first car. As a single person, I drove a Honda Civic hatchback (the early 1990 type) and drove across North America more than once. Note that my nominal range for a Model 3 can be reduced almost in half in cold weather with cabin heat. Some of the longer stretches in less dense areas (the Dakotas, or Twin Falls to Boise) can push over 90 miles, and unless you're going to stick to 55mph these distances might be iffyin winter in a vehicle rated for maybe 120 miles.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Besides long range giving flexibility of home charging routine, or dealing with failed charging, the extra range also helps fast charging. Not only does it allow higher power, but it allows charging in the sweet spot to add a reasonable chunk of driving time.

 

[Maxim_9]

I expect Tesla to deliver a virtuous spiral of weight savings. I think they will get down to 30kWh as the base vehicle won't have nearly the same range as a MY SR. That saves a lot. The structure will be lighter with castings etc. Maybe plastic shell. Also 4680 V3s will be lighter again.

I don't know. I think the market has spoken on the viability of short-range EVs, which is to say, no one really wants them. If they did, we'd all be making posts on the Coda/Wheego forum instead of the Tesla forum.

And before someone comes out with "but the average daily drive is 30-something miles", that's average, not maximum. There are plenty of people who drive more than that every day, plenty of people who average that far but do it by not driving at all some days and driving much further on others. Even with a good supercharger network a super short range EV will be a PITA on any kind of trip. And anyone not able to charge at home every night is really going to want something that can last a couple days' worth of driving between charges, just like nobody wants an ICE car that has to be filled up every day.

I see a 220-250 mile EPA range as being about the floor for a practical mass-market consumer EV that someone will be willing to pay new-car pricing for.

Edit: I see a few of Ford Fiestas in our neighborhood. Something that size with a 220-240 mile LFP pack could be really successful.

I think that's spot on. At the end of the day, almost no one will want to buy a short range EV, especially if it costs more than an equivalent ICE or hybrid vehicle. You're right about the fact that not everyone drives the average mileage per day. Half of people are going to drive more than the average on any given day, and just shooting for that plus a bit is still going to eliminate an EV purchase for a lot of folks.

Also, short range EVs with small batteries will suffer from additional problems as well:

• Battery degradation will hit them harder. Losing 12% of range over time isn't a big deal for an EV with a 300+ mile range, but will be serious impediment for EVs with ranges of 200 miles or less.
• Range will be more adversely effected by extreme cold, which will be a bigger deal for an EV with a limited range.
• Highway driving uses a lot more energy for an EV, and short range EVs will seriously suffer from a need to stop and recharge much more often.

I think you're right that 250 miles of range is really the lower range of acceptability for an EV to succeed on the market. Even if that's far more than most people drive on any given day, pretty much everyone will have times when they need to go much further. On top of that, a larger battery helps to act as a buffer for less than ideal weather or driving conditions.

 

[Buckminster]

I don't know. I think the market has spoken on the viability of short-range EVs, which is to say, no one really wants them. If they did, we'd all be making posts on the Coda/Wheego forum instead of the Tesla forum.



I think that's spot on. At the end of the day, almost no one will want to buy a short range EV, especially if it costs more than an equivalent ICE or hybrid vehicle. You're right about the fact that not everyone drives the average mileage per day. Half of people are going to drive more than the average on any given day, and just shooting for that plus a bit is still going to eliminate an EV purchase for a lot of folks.

Also, short range EVs with small batteries will suffer from additional problems as well:

• Battery degradation will hit them harder. Losing 12% of range over time isn't a big deal for an EV with a 300+ mile range, but will be serious impediment for EVs with ranges of 200 miles or less.
• Range will be more adversely effected by extreme cold, which will be a bigger deal for an EV with a limited range.
• Highway driving uses a lot more energy for an EV, and short range EVs will seriously suffer from a need to stop and recharge much more often.

I think you're right that 250 miles of range is really the lower range of acceptability for an EV to succeed on the market. Even if that's far more than most people drive on any given day, pretty much everyone will have times when they need to go much further. On top of that, a larger battery helps to act as a buffer for less than ideal weather or driving conditions.

There would be a long range version. Many don't use their second vehicle for long distance. % decreases have a smaller impact on a smaller battery. Tesla need to have reduced range otherwise they risk osborning the M3/Y. Also as the number of superchargers increases, the need reduces a little again. In addition, this vehicle my be constrained size wise as the platform is mostly designed around the robotaxi.

 

[T3SLAROD]

Cant wait for this Tesla. I think it's going to be its biggest seller.

 

[Maxim_9]

There would be a long range version. Many don't use their second vehicle for long distance. % decreases have a smaller impact on a smaller battery. Tesla need to have reduced range otherwise they risk osborning the M3/Y. Also as the number of superchargers increases, the need reduces a little again. In addition, this vehicle my be constrained size wise as the platform is mostly designed around the robotaxi.

Tesla isn't in the business of doing short range cars, though. Their shortest range vehicle is the Standard Range model Y, which has a range of 260 miles, that's a number that's pretty close to @gtae07 's number of 250 miles for a viable EV that people would want to buy.

A Tesla Hot Hatch with a range of 270-310 miles for an entry level model feels like that would hit kind of the sweet spot given today's technology. It likely wouldn't cannibalize sales from the Model Y because the people looking for a small hatchback aren't likely to buy a large CUV like the Y. It might take some sales away from the Model 3, but that would be mostly for people who would consider the Model 3 because Tesla doesn't currently sell a hatchback.

The only car comparable would be the Chey Bolt, which has a range of 260 miles, and hasn't sold all that great, even with a price point under $30,000. An EV with a range of 250 miles or less will have to have other compelling things to get people to buy it. Like a really cheap price; say under $20,000.

For Tesla to compete in that space, most people will want them to beat the Bolt on range, and at least be comparable in cost. Other perks like styling that isn't nerdy, or excellent acceleration 0-60 will be something a lot of people would want as well. Even if the 0-60 isn't as fast as even the LR M3, it'll still be faster than 90% of the cars on the road.

 

[gtae07]

There would be a long range version. Many don't use their second vehicle for long distance.

At least in the US even the "not for travel" vehicle may still frequently see lots of miles on a daily basis. In many parts of the US outside dense urban areas, a 30-40 mile one-way trip might be a daily commute, or the trip to a certain store, a kid's soccer game, the specialist doctor's office, or what have you. It's 15 miles to my son's school--60 miles/day just getting him there and back, not counting anything else I need to do that day.

Very few people are going to go out and buy a 100-150 mile range EV (especially at anything near new-car pricing) as their first or second vehicle, when an older used ICE vehicle offers greater daily usable range and greater daily convenience at far less acquisition cost. It would have to be pretty darn cheap (I'd guess $10-15k at best), and I don't see someone making a car capable of seating four adults, meeting crash standards, and keeping up with highway traffic for that amount even with crippled range.

I think the market for the secondary car/kids' car/etc. will get filled by older EVs with degraded battery packs, not new-build range-crippled cars (and 100 ish miles is range-crippled no matter how you spin it). The super-small, short-range vehicle market will basically be confined to the same people who bought Smartcars--that is to say, almost nobody.

Tesla need to have reduced range otherwise they risk osborning the M3/Y.

No, as long as there's some other differentiator like size, performance, features, etc. A subcompact hatchback, fitting two adults up front and two-three kids in back (or maybe two adults, for short trips), with a 250 mile range, is something I think people might buy at $25k.

Also as the number of superchargers increases, the need reduces a little again.

Not really. Nobody will want to have to supercharge on a daily basis, and it's going to be a long time before there are enough chargers that the vast majority of people live within 10 miles or so of one. Nobody's going to want to take any kind of trip if they have to stop every 50 miles/45 minutes to charge to near full.

The only car comparable would be the Chey Bolt, which has a range of 260 miles, and hasn't sold all that great, even with a price point under $30,000. An EV with a range of 250 miles or less will have to have other compelling things to get people to buy it. Like a really cheap price; say under $20,000.

I think the Bolt would have done better if they had (1) gotten the price under/near $30k sooner, (2) not had some really bad publicity from battery fires, and (3) been able to charge faster on a better network. So, maybe a NACS-equipped Boltium with 150-200kW peak charge rate, same range, and a price at least a couple thousand less than a base M3, and they might have something.

I'm not sure if the smaller compact hatch/econocar market is really one that Tesla will have a lot of in the long run. I see them maybe making a base model one for a while (for the robotaxi/affordable market) but as other manufacturers figure out EV and battery production, I see that car moving to more performance-only for most sales. Maybe slot it just a hair under the base M3, giving a choice of more space or more performance at the same price.

a large CUV like the Y

"Large" I guess technically it's a crossover, but it really feels more like just a big hatchback, maybe because of how it slopes down at the rear. Little more space, bit higher and more upright seating for us folks with bad joints and sore muscles. I had a Focus ZX5 and loved it, even towed with it. But it was a fair bit harder to get in and out of at 38 than it was when I bought it at 19...

 

[Earl]

The only car comparable would be the Chey Bolt, which has a range of 260 miles, and hasn't sold all that great,

Don't forget that the Bolt only fast charges at a maximum of 50 KW so it takes about at least an hour for a reasonable full charge on the road. This makes it very inconvenient for road tripping, even if the size is doable for a couple or youngster just starting out - a big part of the market for a compact car. That and the fact that the chargers are CCS nightmares pretty much sealed the fate of the Bolt - otherwise, it's an very nice, useful car.
Faster and reliable charging, both of which would not impact cost and are technically very easy today, would put it in an entirely different category for many.

 

[Buckminster]

Roughly the same size as the Volkswagen Up, the Spring was the first 100 per cent electric car from Dacia, Renault’s budget brand and is one of Europe's cheapest EVs.

Launched in left-hand drive only in March 2020, the five-door city car can run on a single charge for more than 200 km and fit four adults in comfort.

With rugged looks outside, inside it is bright and airy with plenty of clever storage options and the boot can hold 290 litres of luggage.

The 26.8 kWh battery and diminutive dimensions mean it's ideally suited to the city but venture further and it will happily negotiate motorways.

MYSR (most popular car in world) has 260 mile range. Even some Americans will be able to handle 200-250 miles. Hitting 20m cars by 2030 will require a small battery. M2 market is not primarily USA. Large number will go to India, China, Brazil and EU. Elon said utility.

 

[Goobers]

Looking at YT and whatever results that popped up on Google, it feels like that Dacia is a "bad" example.

I definitely feel biased about saying this, but I think Tesla could fit a bigger battery (40-45 kWh?) and more powerful motor (100 hp?) while getting better range on top, in a similarly sized vehicle. And that's mostly just because the Dacia looks like it was something "converted-to-EV," rather than "designed-as-EV." I don't know how accurate it is, but one YT short shows the battery, which looks like it was designed to slot where a gas tank was. Not that I understand it, but here's the clip:

Heck, BYD's Seagull has a 38/39 kWh option and it's smaller than the Dacia (27/28 kWh). Has slightly more HP than the "Extreme" version of the Dacia (74 vs 65 hp). That gives it higher range (190 miles? vs 140). And it's cheaper.

That said, if Tesla's next gen vehicle is going to be small, I hope it isn't quite that small. If it was about the size of my 2010 Honda Fit, I'd probably put in an order the second its made available. Hopefully, it also ticks off a bunch of other boxes.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The only car comparable would be the Chey Bolt, which has a range of 260 miles, and hasn't sold all that great, even with a price point under $30,000. An EV with a range of 250 miles or less will have to have other compelling things to get people to buy it. Like a really cheap price; say under $20,000.

Actually it did. It was selling very easily at 6k per month at the beginning of the year. It would have sold more but they couldn't or didn't want to sell any more. The cells were a special deal, and they were probably losing money on every car sold.

GM needs Ultium working well for their EVs, but in particular to make a cheap "Boltium" they need LFP and LGES won't be able to make LFP cells until 2025.

 

[Maxim_9]

Actually it did. It was selling very easily at 6k per month at the beginning of the year. It would have sold more but they couldn't or didn't want to sell any more. The cells were a special deal, and they were probably losing money on every car sold.

GM needs Ultium working well for their EVs, but in particular to make a cheap "Boltium" they need LFP and LGES won't be able to make LFP cells until 2025.

Ah. I stand corrected. Thanks for the info.

 

[Buckminster]

Tesla weighs smaller batteries for its India car
Firewall - just reading the title