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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread
- Thread starter teddyg
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and AB1 and AB3 has passed the senate as well.
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Here is hoping that the important one SB1 gets through both houses just as easily
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SB1 - Passed!On to the assembly! 21-0
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BTW there was no major comments or pushback or debate or grandstanding or anything... everyone had their issues sorted throughout the session and the roll call went swimmingly. I think something bad would have to happen at this point for it not to pass the assembly.
Thanks for all your summaries of what is going on there by the way, it is great to read and keep up with
chickensevil
Active Member
Just rehashing SB1 in the assembly at this point, now would be a great time to listen in for a brief synopsis of nice little things about the factory and how awesome Tesla is
Will probably go for vote tonight.
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So AB2 (EV direct sales) needs to be passed by the Senate now, but will likely go without a problem and minimal debate.
SB1 is on the floor right now for the Assembly and is being debated and will get public comment. There is about 30 questions to be asked and such so it will still be a couple hours of back and forth before we get out of the committee and into the voting.
That is it. Once these two complete they will both be on the Governor's desk.
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You are welcome, I am mostly listening in to these for the sake of trying to identify little snippets of "insider" information we can gleam that might help with framing the factory as an investor, but figure I might as well also keep status updates going as well.
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So the public comments look to be a rehash (verbatim) from earlier. Which means they are just formalities to make these people feel better that they protested or whatever... *yawn*
Will probably go for vote tonight.
- - - Updated - - -
So AB2 (EV direct sales) needs to be passed by the Senate now, but will likely go without a problem and minimal debate.
SB1 is on the floor right now for the Assembly and is being debated and will get public comment. There is about 30 questions to be asked and such so it will still be a couple hours of back and forth before we get out of the committee and into the voting.
That is it. Once these two complete they will both be on the Governor's desk.
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You are welcome, I am mostly listening in to these for the sake of trying to identify little snippets of "insider" information we can gleam that might help with framing the factory as an investor, but figure I might as well also keep status updates going as well.
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So the public comments look to be a rehash (verbatim) from earlier. Which means they are just formalities to make these people feel better that they protested or whatever... *yawn*
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Just rehashing SB1 in the assembly at this point, now would be a great time to listen in for a brief synopsis of nice little things about the factory and how awesome Tesla is
Will probably go for vote tonight.
- - - Updated - - -
So AB2 (EV direct sales) needs to be passed by the Senate now, but will likely go without a problem and minimal debate.
SB1 is on the floor right now for the Assembly and is being debated and will get public comment. There is about 30 questions to be asked and such so it will still be a couple hours of back and forth before we get out of the committee and into the voting.
That is it. Once these two complete they will both be on the Governor's desk.
- - - Updated - - -
You are welcome, I am mostly listening in to these for the sake of trying to identify little snippets of "insider" information we can gleam that might help with framing the factory as an investor, but figure I might as well also keep status updates going as well.
------
So the public comments look to be a rehash (verbatim) from earlier. Which means they are just formalities to make these people feel better that they protested or whatever... *yawn*
Thanks for the live updates! Any sense of whether this will be a done deal by market close tomorrow? I wonder how the market will react.
chickensevil
Active Member
Yeah, I would say it seems likely. I really think they will be finished tonight. I don't know that I am going to be able to stay up for it all. But I think they are on the last of the public comments at this point, and of course they go on and on even though they already said all this... lol. But yeah, I think we should be good tonight. They seem quite pressed to be done with this. At least that is the feeling I am getting. And of course even if the Gov doesn't sign it tomorrow, he started all this, so I don't see why you can't consider this a done deal once the Assembly passes SB1.
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Wow, I missed this guy earlier... He is saying that Lyon County was hit the hardest of all during the recession going up to 20% unemployment and is only now down to 10%... CRAZY!
He is saying that the road changes being suggested are not anything new, Lyon County has been fighting for route 50 expansion in their county for years, and the jobs this brings to the state will directly impact Lyon County. So he wanted to stress that while he is not in favor generally of handouts and such from the government, this really is going to help lives in his area get jobs and improve their lives. Really glad he gave his testimony, because all you tend to hear is the naysayers about how this isn't helping THEIR area directly, and all it is going to do is hurt them, etc... So it is refreshing.
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Another tidbit I missed is that the auditing to keep tabs that Tesla is in line with the bill requirements (to avoid losing the benefits and having them taken back... because there are clawbacks here) is done through a third party auditor, approved by GOED (I think I have that acronym right) and paid for by Tesla. So even the auditing won't come out as an added expense to the state in this. I really think they thought of everything here to make this fair all around to NV and Tesla making sure Tesla doesn't cheat the state out of anything from the money they receive to the employees they hire and for being a "handout" this is really well written it seems.
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So the main road they are building and expanding is not actually being funded through this bill, but is instead going through the normal DOT process they are just accelerating it getting built.
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So what happens when there is a new battery technology, are they able to cover into that new technology? -> Well, I am not an expert, but Wall Street asked this question during the last conference call and they had a great answer at that time
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Something that was asked directly to Elon the other day (that the chairwoman was talking about) was that when they move in how long are they planning to stay and what is their future outlook in Nevada, and at that point he went into how they are very interested in moving the state forward with STEM education programs and are really looking to progress the state over the next 25 years. The Chairwoman said to her, when he was talking about progressing education that was all she needed to know that they were in it for the long haul since you generally don't do anything with education unless you are looking to stick around and see that pay out.
chickensevil
Active Member
BTW, so everyone knows what road they keep talking about I tried to draw over top of it so it is easier to see... it pretty much turns to dirt/nothing at the end. But this would really allow direct access up through that area.
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Here, actually even better, Picture showing 2 routes, one cutting through the mostly dirt road of about 17 Miles and the current out of the way route that is double the distance at 34 miles:
So they would be looking to expand/build that road out properly to give a good cut through that area.
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AB2 is passed, My heart sank for a minute as it was going through since they were joking around with the voting machine and like half the people hit nay at the start, I tried to get a screen grab and missed it, they had all went green by the time I got it. So 21-0 passed the senate, all that remains is SB1 getting through the assembly.
With that I am going to go turn in for the night, they are still doing questions, no clue how many they have left. It should move out of committee after that, and into a full vote, so hopefully this happens tonight. They are already past the original 7:30 end time they were shooting for by about 30 minutes now. So hopefully they don't have much more to go.
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Here, actually even better, Picture showing 2 routes, one cutting through the mostly dirt road of about 17 Miles and the current out of the way route that is double the distance at 34 miles:
So they would be looking to expand/build that road out properly to give a good cut through that area.
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AB2 is passed, My heart sank for a minute as it was going through since they were joking around with the voting machine and like half the people hit nay at the start, I tried to get a screen grab and missed it, they had all went green by the time I got it. So 21-0 passed the senate, all that remains is SB1 getting through the assembly.
With that I am going to go turn in for the night, they are still doing questions, no clue how many they have left. It should move out of committee after that, and into a full vote, so hopefully this happens tonight. They are already past the original 7:30 end time they were shooting for by about 30 minutes now. So hopefully they don't have much more to go.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
From AAB report pretty negative on the GF and Tesla although nowhere near Seeking Alpha territory.
Pack cost much below $200/kWh is unlikely before 2020, bringing the proposed 70-kWh
pack for a 200-mile D class EV cost to (or above) $14,000, which is 40% of the proposed
Model-3 vehicle base price of $35k. Tesla could offer an entry-level version with 50kWh
(at close to $10k per pack) but such a vehicle would not quite attain 200 miles per charge
60 kWh gets Model S to 208 EPA miles. Don't see why Model 3 needs 70 kWh to reach 200 but...
Elsewhere they project GF will not get to full production until 2025.
Says rock bottom price for GF is $167/kWh from what ABB estimates is $275/kWh today and implies Samsung/LG maybe able to get below that in 3 years with large format cells because Samsung and LG told them that.
Government Credits are a Bigger Deal than is Generally Acknowledged
California ZEV credits and federal incentive programs could be more important to Tesla’s profitability than discussed publically (SIC)
Pack cost much below $200/kWh is unlikely before 2020, bringing the proposed 70-kWh
pack for a 200-mile D class EV cost to (or above) $14,000, which is 40% of the proposed
Model-3 vehicle base price of $35k. Tesla could offer an entry-level version with 50kWh
(at close to $10k per pack) but such a vehicle would not quite attain 200 miles per charge
60 kWh gets Model S to 208 EPA miles. Don't see why Model 3 needs 70 kWh to reach 200 but...
Elsewhere they project GF will not get to full production until 2025.
Says rock bottom price for GF is $167/kWh from what ABB estimates is $275/kWh today and implies Samsung/LG maybe able to get below that in 3 years with large format cells because Samsung and LG told them that.
Government Credits are a Bigger Deal than is Generally Acknowledged
California ZEV credits and federal incentive programs could be more important to Tesla’s profitability than discussed publically (SIC)
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chickensevil
Active Member
Thanks guys, I knew it was coming I just couldn't stay up to see it. Wasn't expecting the governor to sign it THAT quickly so this is really great!
Going to be a slow next two years now... I think the next major thing to look for will be finalizing their deals with the smaller partners like Hitachi and SMM.
Going to be a slow next two years now... I think the next major thing to look for will be finalizing their deals with the smaller partners like Hitachi and SMM.
chickensevil
Active Member
Here is the letter they sent to NV committing to their end of the deal on the education money to STEM and schools in the regions near the factory.
Yuri_G
Member
AAB also thinks the Model 3 will be $50k-$80k. Fairly pessimistic, and the hint of pessimism seems to run throughout the whole report. They also predict the next EVs from major automakers will have 120-180 mile range. We'll see if either of those predictions comes true.
Yes, and they project Tesla to sell just 50k cars in 2015 when we all know it will be 60k at the very least but could be much higher.
you have to wonder who they make their money off of...I would imagine that other auto companies who are not committed to battery technology yet are interested in this type of report/research and would be most likely to become a battery technology consultant client of theirs (not just buying ths report)...AAB has to therefore cater this report more to to these prospects of theirs and can't make it seem like these automaker prospects are as far behind in trying to catch up as they really are or those automakers may not even bother researching further if they see the reality that they are too far away to, in practicality, catch up themselves with the technology.
It could be that they're even downplaying Tesla to tell traditional auto execs what they want to hear. Half a decade from now, when shareholders are grilling them on why they didn't see the EV revolution coming, they can claim that they "consulted industry experts and determined the case for the the price points to allow mass EV adoption was extremely unlikely" etc. Plausible deniability.
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