Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
#1,641
eepic said:
It could be that they're even downplaying Tesla to tell traditional auto execs what they want to hear. Half a decade from now, when shareholders are grilling them on why they didn't see the EV revolution coming, they can claim that they "consulted industry experts and determined the case for the the price points to allow mass EV adoption was extremely unlikely" etc. Plausible deniability.
Click to expand...

+1. So is there safety in mediocrity? Whenever I think about shorting traditional automakers, I wind up thinking, "Why bother I? I already own Tesla."
 
#1,642
eepic said:
It could be that they're even downplaying Tesla to tell traditional auto execs what they want to hear. Half a decade from now, when shareholders are grilling them on why they didn't see the EV revolution coming, they can claim that they "consulted industry experts and determined the case for the the price points to allow mass EV adoption was extremely unlikely" etc. Plausible deniability.
Click to expand...

As is the case of some Wall Street analysts who rely on the fundamental evaluation methodology they learned in college based on near term quarterly results and outlooks. When a growth stock runs away from them, they can still show their bosses that they precisely followed the conventional formulae, and claim it's the market that must be wrong.
 
#1,643
Curt Renz said:
As is the case of some Wall Street analysts who rely on the fundamental evaluation methodology they learned in college based on near term quarterly results and outlooks. When a growth stock runs away from them, they can still show their bosses that they precisely followed the conventional formulae, and claim it's the market that must be wrong.
Click to expand...

Yep, I've got Prof. Damodaran's book right here for just such occasions.

It's funny how in mathematical finance you almost always calibrate you model to actual market prices, but in the case of fundamental analysis, such as Damodaran teaches, they almost never calibrate to the market. Instead, they presume their models are so good they tell the market what the price ought to be.

If you build a DCF model, you should at least derive the discount rate by calibration to the market. The implied discount rate tells you how willing the market is to trade a dollar today for future cash flows of a particular name. Then you could use such a calibrated DCF model to understand changes in market value in the similar way that Quant uses implied volatility to understand how the market values options. The implied discount measures how skeptical the market is toward a particular name, or how much the market prefers a dollar today to future cash flow. However, fundamental analysts think they can both model future cash flows and tell the market what those cash flows are worth. It is intellectual folly to thick you can know both without consulting with the market.
 
#1,644
jhm said:
Yep, I've got Prof. Damodaran's book right here for just such occasions.

It's funny how in mathematical finance you almost always calibrate you model to actual market prices, but in the case of fundamental analysis, such as Damodaran teaches, they almost never calibrate to the market. Instead, they presume their models are so good they tell the market what the price ought to be.

If you build a DCF model, you should at least derive the discount rate by calibration to the market. The implied discount rate tells you how willing the market is to trade a dollar today for future cash flows of a particular name. Then you could use such a calibrated DCF model to understand changes in market value in the similar way that Quant uses implied volatility to understand how the market values options. The implied discount measures how skeptical the market is toward a particular name, or how much the market prefers a dollar today to future cash flow. However, fundamental analysts think they can both model future cash flows and tell the market what those cash flows are worth. It is intellectual folly to thick you can know both without consulting with the market.
Click to expand...

If there were a "secret" to wall street, this would be it. Armchair analysts who use textbook methodologies when in doubt, because even if you end up completely wrong you can justify your conclusion and blame it on an unlikely outcome materializing.
 
#1,645
jhm said:
Yep, I've got Prof. Damodaran's book right here for just such occasions.

It's funny how in mathematical finance you almost always calibrate you model to actual market prices, but in the case of fundamental analysis, such as Damodaran teaches, they almost never calibrate to the market. Instead, they presume their models are so good they tell the market what the price ought to be.

If you build a DCF model, you should at least derive the discount rate by calibration to the market. The implied discount rate tells you how willing the market is to trade a dollar today for future cash flows of a particular name. Then you could use such a calibrated DCF model to understand changes in market value in the similar way that Quant uses implied volatility to understand how the market values options. The implied discount measures how skeptical the market is toward a particular name, or how much the market prefers a dollar today to future cash flow. However, fundamental analysts think they can both model future cash flows and tell the market what those cash flows are worth. It is intellectual folly to thick you can know both without consulting with the market.
Click to expand...

Every analyst on Wall Street tries to manipulate Main Street investors by claiming to have some kind of fancy mathematical formula that can predict the true value of a company. Let me share this, if I had a secret formula like that, I wouldn't share it with anyone. I'd keep my mouth shut and let the formula do its thing. Don't forget that the loudest person in the room is usually the most insecure.
 
#1,646
evme said:
Kind of but not really. Tesla will already hire 700 workers in 2015. 3 years means they would be only in the last hiring round




YearJobsPayrollConstructionEquipmentInstallation
2015700$39,817,456.00$335,000,000.00$592,500,000.00$88,875,000.00
20161700$96,699,536.00$345,000,000.00$1,382,500,000.00$207,375,000.00
20174700$267,345,776.00$320,000,000.00$1,382,500,000.00$207,375,000.00
20186500$369,733,520.00$0.00$592,500,000.00$88,875,000.00
20196500$369,733,520.00$0.00$100,000,000.00$15,000,000.00
20206500$369,733,520.00$0.00$250,000,000.00$37,500,000.00
20216500$369,733,520.00$0.00$250,000,000.00$37,500,000.00
20226500$369,733,520.00$0.00$500,000,000.00$75,000,000.00
20236500$369,733,520.00$0.00$500,000,000.00$75,000,000.00
20246500$369,733,520.00$0.00$500,000,000.00$75,000,000.00
20256500$369,733,520.00$0.00$500,000,000.00$75,000,000.00
20266500$369,733,520.00$0.00$650,000,000.00$97,500,000.00
20276500$369,733,520.00$0.00$750,000,000.00$112,500,000.00
20286500$369,733,520.00$0.00$1,000,000,000.00$150,000,000.00
20296500$369,733,520.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
20306500$369,733,520.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
20316500$369,733,520.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
20326500$369,733,520.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
20336500$369,733,520.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
20346500$184,866,760.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
20YearTotal6500$6,504,465,848.00$1,000,000,000.00
...
Click to expand...


Thanks for posting this. I'm blown away that the Gigafactory will be built in four phases and that GF will actually be in operation next year producing batteries using 700 employees. This is earth shattering news to me. Previously, I thought that GF wouldn't produce any batteries and packs until 2017.

This is four phased production approach makes sense and in retrospect I should've expected this phased production ramp.
 
#1,647
FredTMC said:
Thanks for posting this. I'm blown away that the Gigafactory will be built in four phases and that GF will actually be in operation next year producing batteries using 700 employees. This is earth shattering news to me. Previously, I thought that GF wouldn't produce any batteries and packs until 2017.

This is four phased production approach makes sense and in retrospect I should've expected this phased production ramp.
Click to expand...

Well, it say there will be 700 employees there next year, but will this 700 be producing batteries? Or will this be construction workers? Or maybe all they work with (in 2015) is to get the equipment in place? And/or training and preparing the production-start? But if this is not just construction workers, then the production for sure will start (in small scale) in 2016. And that is what I believe is the plan. But we can hope that the production starts late 2015 :)
 
#1,652
We came <<<<<this close>>>>>>>> to purchasing a really terrific-looking house two years ago in Fernley, NV. A good quarterback could just about hit it from the Gigafactory's roof. At present, there are not a lot of higher-end homes in the area; I'm thinking that even without taking into consideration the distortion induced by Nevada's real estate collapse, that particular home has very easily just doubled in value.

Of course, to capitalize on such a windfall, we would have had to sell it.....at any rate, water under the dam, or something like that.
 
#1,654
Some great nuggets in here. Diarmuid gets awesome-er the more I learn about him.

Teslas Deal Architect on the Giga Battery Factory and the EV Market : Greentech Media

Diarmuid said:
O'Connell said that following Sept. 11, he dusted off some credentials and went to work in Washington, D.C. as Chief of Staff for Political-Military Affairs at the U.S. State Department during the "dire situation" that existed in the period 2003 to 2005, when there was an "IED campaign and multiple casualties every day." He said, "I was one of the people reporting to my boss...what was going on -- literally, who was being killed -- and started thinking hard about how we found ourselves deployed around the world."

In his conversations with military leadership, "The answer always came back to oil."


"In thinking ahead in what I wanted to do after my time in government, I wanted to work on oil reduction in our economy -- which takes you to transportation, and that takes you to passenger cars and light trucks. It became clear to me that true innovation wasn't going to come from within" because of the "incentives of incumbency."


The VP said that in 2005, the future was fuel cell technology -- that was the direction of policy, "But I couldn't answer [the question of] who pays for the infrastructure." What attracted him to Tesla, still in stealth at the time, was that it was working with cell technology that already existed in scale and secondly, for a change, Tesla was going to build "cars that were attractive."
Click to expand...
 
#1,660
WarpedOne said:
900 cars coresponds to about 2 "Southern California Edison stationary storage system" each week.

What competition?
Click to expand...

Sorry.. poor word choice. The competition isn't heating up. But just the fact that LG is entering this market is a good sign. This move provides credence to Tesla's belief that it can sell 15 GWh of battery production for stationary storage with the Gigafactory. The results from LG's test with SCE will hopefully be good for Tesla when the Gigafactory comes online.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Buckminster
Wiki Investor Thread Index
Replies
1
Views
741
TSLA Investor Discussions
Buckminster
Buckminster
Madmolecule
Guideline for future directors to add value to Tesla
Replies
3
Views
462
Tesla, Inc.
Madmolecule
Madmolecule
Orbit
Elon Musk, Funding Secured, SEC, Summary Judgement, Jury found not liable
Replies
1
Views
468
TSLA Investor Discussions
Watts_Up
Watts_Up
CS@Tshields
  • Article
Vendor Everything you want (and don't) to hear about the new 4680 Tesla Battery - An in-depth look: brought to you by TeslaShields.com
Replies
36
Views
19K
Battery Discussion
aerodyne
aerodyne
E
  • Article
Tesla kids science book + Our Model 4 prediction!
Replies
0
Views
309
Tesla, Inc.
EV_Twins
E
Top
Back
Blog
New
Forum list
Marketplace
Menu