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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

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The Devil is in the Details. Elon has mentioned on a number of occasions sourcing materials from North America. In addition, there will be tremendous influence placed on the environmental aspects of mining and production.

Vendor and source selections will involve far more than the abundance of materials.
 

I am really hopeful that a battery factory gets built in California but I still contend that other states that are being mentioned are more 'business friendly' despite this bill. I have attached the link to Shannon Grove's letter to Elon considering this bill and the fact she still feels that California is not business friendly enough. I certainly can be wrong in my thinking but Nevada and Texas seem to be the states where the first factory will be completed/operational.

http://arc.asm.ca.gov/member/AD34/?p=article&sid=424&id=258437
 
Also keep in mind everyone that keeps on harping on the price of Li, that there is an estimated 230 BILLION tonns of it in the worlds oceans. So if mining gets too expensive you can desalinate saltwater, preferably somewhere you can also sell the fresh water and get a nice source of Li and Na.

Cobos
 
It would not surprise me if Elon has now determined that it would be most effective to break ground simultaneously at two or three potential Gigafactory sites. That way no state would appear to be the frontrunner, thus encouraging increased competition regarding concessions to the company.

In response to a question at the May 7 conference call regarding the groundbreaking of the first Gigafactory, Elon answered, "...probably next month." He then said one or two more other sites could have ground broken a month or two later. The announcement of which site was to enter full scale construction would be made later this year. He noted that the cost of extra groundbreaking would be far less than the cost of delay in completion of the first Gigafactory.

My conjecture today is that perhaps those two or three groundbreakings could occur simultaneously. That may explain why no ground was broken in June.
 
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I am really hopeful that a battery factory gets built in California but I still contend that other states that are being mentioned are more 'business friendly' despite this bill. I have attached the link to Shannon Grove's letter to Elon considering this bill and the fact she still feels that California is not business friendly enough. I certainly can be wrong in my thinking but Nevada and Texas seem to be the states where the first factory will be completed/operational.

http://arc.asm.ca.gov/member/AD34/?p=article&sid=424&id=258437

Republican Shannon Grove pens an obstructionist viewpoint to a Democratic-led initiative. I am confident Elon will see this for what it is. At the end of the day, he will use it to negotiate the best terms possible from the state of California.

Shannon Grove has consistently worked against California's "Global Warming Solutions Act" AB 32.

AB 32 is the legislation which has driven California to a leadership position in solar power, driving the growth of SolarCity.
 
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I am really hopeful that a battery factory gets built in California but I still contend that other states that are being mentioned are more 'business friendly' despite this bill. I have attached the link to Shannon Grove's letter to Elon considering this bill and the fact she still feels that California is not business friendly enough. I certainly can be wrong in my thinking but Nevada and Texas seem to be the states where the first factory will be completed/operational.

http://arc.asm.ca.gov/member/AD34/?p=article&sid=424&id=258437
She's supposed to represent California and she pens a letter telling Elon how horrible it is in California. She must really hate her state and her people.
 
California's "Global Warming Solutions Act" AB 32 is directly responsible for the growth in the state's solar industry. Shannon Grove has directly and actively opposed AB 32. Successful business models and renewable energy are no mutually exclusive. Consider how competitive California will be when 33% of its power is generated from renewable energy. When this is coupled with California's energy storage legislation it will create an amazing efficiency paradigm.

Shannon Grove opposes this.

To me, it is a spot on match for Elon's "Solar Electric Economy".

Solar Industry Data | SEIA

In 2013 California installed 5 times more solar than the next closest state.
 
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She's supposed to represent California and she pens a letter telling Elon how horrible it is in California. She must really hate her state and her people.
Techically she represents a district in the Calfornia legislature. That district includes Bakersfield which includes some oil interests. Frankly given her constituency, I am surprised she complimented Tesla.
 
The term "rare earth" does not mean the material is unobtainable. See Rare earth element - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Quote: "Despite their name, rare earth elements (with the exception of the radioactive promethium) are relatively plentiful in the Earth's crust, with cerium being the 25th most abundant element at 68 parts per million (similar to copper). However, because of their geochemical properties, rare earth elements are typically dispersed and not often found concentrated as rare earth minerals in economically exploitable ore deposits.[3] It was the very scarcity of these minerals (previously called "earths") that led to the term "rare earth"."

Also see Lithium - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Quote:"According to the Handbook of Lithium and Natural Calcium, "Lithium is a comparatively rare element, although it is found in many rocks and some brines, but always in very low concentrations. There are a fairly large number of both lithium mineral and brine deposits but only comparatively few of them are of actual or potential commercial value. Many are very small, others are too low in grade.""

So yes, lithium is not as common as iron and copper but it is one of the more plentiful elements. And as JRP3 posted, lithium ion batteries use only a very small amount per cell.

The size of Tesla's planned factory is due to the need for large numbers of batteries for future production, numbers greater than what is currently available.

Thanks for helping my with the Rare Earth definition. In other words, Lithium is everywhere, but that doesn't mean its in concentrations that are commercially economical.
So my point should be that where Lithium is found in commercially economical deposits, is the limiting factor in wider use. That still takes me to what I have read, that being that China has most of the world's "commercially" exploitable deposits. I've been doing a lot of reading about the Wyoming deposits, and not only are they large (by any definition), but that they are of much higher quality, meaning that exploiting these deposits will be less expensive than those found elsewhere.

To achieve Gigafactory's intended potential (double current worldwide production), it is going to require a great deal more Lithium than is currently being economically mined worldwide. Enter Wyoming deposits. They are larger than any other economically viable deposits, are of higher quality, easily transported to where needed, and under US control.
 
The only thing to keep in mind is not to be too focused on the Lithium (Nevada has plenty too), but to keep in mind all required chemicals. As has been stated Lithium is a considerably small part of the battery. Based on their current chemical build of the batteries (and I don't think they have let on any plans to change this any time soon-ish) these are the chemicals they are using:

Nickel
Lithium
Cobalt
Graphite

There are some other chemicals in there, but I would say these are by and far the largest concentrations. Outside of Nickel, everything can be obtained here in the US. And the Nickel is very likely to come from Canada. So if you were looking for other stocks to spread around to, I would look at those 4 chemicals.
 
That still takes me to what I have read, that being that China has most of the world's "commercially" exploitable deposits.

The largest producer of lithium in the world is Chile, which extracts it from brine at the Atacama Salt Flat. Argentina also produces lithium from brine at the Hombre Muerto Salt Flat. There is also an enormous lithium deposit in Bolivia at the Uyuni Salt Flat (the world's largest salt flat), but this resource remains untapped for now due to political and economic reasons.

http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2010/ph240/eason2/
 
Thanks for helping my with the Rare Earth definition. In other words, Lithium is everywhere, but that doesn't mean its in concentrations that are commercially economical.
So my point should be that where Lithium is found in commercially economical deposits, is the limiting factor in wider use. That still takes me to what I have read, that being that China has most of the world's "commercially" exploitable deposits. I've been doing a lot of reading about the Wyoming deposits, and not only are they large (by any definition), but that they are of much higher quality, meaning that exploiting these deposits will be less expensive than those found elsewhere.

To achieve Gigafactory's intended potential (double current worldwide production), it is going to require a great deal more Lithium than is currently being economically mined worldwide. Enter Wyoming deposits. They are larger than any other economically viable deposits, are of higher quality, easily transported to where needed, and under US control.

We get a lot of lithium through other means and most of the lithium is thrown out. The reason is that it is not used much. And as for China having the most lithium is simply not true by any standard. The mistake a lot of press makes is poor understanding. They play the game of telephone until things get distorted beyond recognition. The mistake people make is they think hybrids and EVs use the same batteries. Hybrids use NiMH batteries, which contain rare earth commonly found in China. This is where a lot of people get the impression that battery materials are mined in China and the confusion people get that Lithium is a rare earth.

Here is what Lithium Production looks like, China is a decent player, but falls behind Chile and Australia by a fairly big margin:

countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium.jpg



But there is one thing China does have going for it, that is Graphite production. (Though Tesla does not use Graphite from China)


Graphite.JPG
 
California's "Global Warming Solutions Act" AB 32 is directly responsible for the growth in the state's solar industry. Shannon Grove has directly and actively opposed AB 32. Successful business models and renewable energy are no mutually exclusive. Consider how competitive California will be when 33% of its power is generated from renewable energy. When this is coupled with California's energy storage legislation it will create an amazing efficiency paradigm.

Hate to burst your bubble, but renewable energy costs more to produce than does conventional energy. California will have higher consumer energy prices when we hit 33% renewable energy. There may be good reasons for going renewable, but cost isn't one of them.