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Tesla Insurance

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From ARK:
Insurance
ARK estimates that Tesla could achieve better than average margins on insurance thanks to the highly detailed driving data it collects from customer vehicles. Partnering with underwriters, Tesla introduced its insurance product in August 2019. Currently, it is available only in California. ARK believes that in the next few years Tesla could roll out its insurance offering to more states, underwriting its own insurance policies. Because its vehicles have better than average safety profiles, Tesla should be able to use real-time data to offer insurance in its vehicles, pricing it dynamically, lowering customer acquisition costs, and increasing margins. Relative to Progressive’s 13% EBIT margin in 2019, ARK estimates that Tesla could achieve margins close to 40%. If it were to sell 40% of vehicles with its own insurance offering by 2025, Tesla’s insurance revenues could approach $23 billion annually in our bear case.[4] In our bull case, ARK estimates that, as robotaxis ramp, Tesla’s insurance revenues will be incorporated into a platform fee. Insurance boosts our price target by roughly $60 in 2025.
ARK’s Price Target for Tesla in 2025 is $3,000 Per Share
 
Martin Viecha
Okay. Thank you very much. And the next question on insurance. When do you plan on having your insurance service rolled out in all the states? International rollout timing? In markets that have Tesla insurance, what kind of uptake rates are you seeing?
Zachary Kirkhorn
Yes. We currently offer Tesla Insurance in 5 states in the U.S. Four of them are telematics, which is Texas, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona. And then California, which has a more standard insurance offering based upon regulations there.
Elon Musk
It should be clear, like we are pushing very hard for California to change the rules to allow informatics, which basically means that you're as safe as you're driving is measured. So, I think the current California rules are contrary to the best interest of the consumers in California and should be changed.
Zachary Kirkhorn
Yes. And that's evidenced by what we're seeing in Texas. We've been in this market now for about three months. And what we see in the data is the frequency of collision by folks who are -- who are given a feedback loop on how they are driving is quite a bit lower than the frequency of collision otherwise.
Elon Musk
Yes. And we get direct feedback on whether driving is safe. And if they drive safe, their insurance cost is less, so they drive safer. It encourages Tesla Insurance with informatics and real-time feedback encourages safer driving and rewards it monetarily. It's great.
Zachary Kirkhorn
Exactly. And so, we see that so far in Texas. Take rates have been quite strong. We measure this on the conversion rate from when folks quote to see what their monthly rate would be at the starting point to what percentage of them purchase. So, we're very encouraged by the interest that we're seeing in Texas.
And then we have enough history in Texas to see what does the loss ratios look like and how do the economics of the program work. And we're on the right track there as well. So, we're comfortable with what we've seen in Texas to move as quickly as the intent to scale this across the U.S.
Specifically on the question about when we will be in all states, this is a slow process because of insurance being regulated at the state level. And so we have to go through each of those processes with each of the departments of insurance in each state. But our internal goal here by the end of the year is to be in enough locations that 80% of our customers within the U.S. could choose to sign up for Tesla Insurance if they wanted to.
There's a lot of uncertainty around that based upon the regulatory processes, but that's our goal. And then, as we make more progress rolling out in the states and each incremental state becomes a little bit less effort than the prior, that's when we'll turn our attention to the Europe market. We might be able to do that by the end of the year, starting to get work on Europe by the end of the year. We'll have to see how we progress in the U.S.
 
From what I understand the insurance rate starts out with the assumption that you have a score of 90. If you can keep your score above 90 the rate will drop, if you can't keep a score above 90 you should probably switch to a provider that doesn't track your driving (unless somehow Tesla Insurance is still cheaper).




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You are correct. I have Tesla Insurance. You are on the 90 score for the first two months regardless. I'm also an FSD Beta tester, so I'm driving in FSD 98% of of the time. I had a 100 safety score until the day it rained so hard FSD would not engage. I got a false FCW and dropped my score down to a 99. At a 90 SS my rate with Tesla was about $45 less expensive than my previous carrier for similar coverage. The only big difference being I carried a $250 deductible on comp. The lowest deductible with TI is $500. With a 99/100 SS I'm saving about $60 a month.

Pretty easy to keep a good safety score using AP/FSD Beta. Driving manually it will be tough keeping a really high score depending on your driving conditions.
 
Excerpt from the call about Tesla insurance.
Nothing new, but I really liked the insight from Elon here.
It's one of those times when you get the see the full brightness of Elon&team's mind, their system thinking, reasoning with feedback loops, what they can do to "leverage" one aspect of the business for improving other aspects.
Tesla Insurance was a stroke of genius, like the Octovalve.

Bold is mine:

There are two really important side benefit to our Tesla Insurance that are worth mentioning, one of which Zach alluded to, which is that just by Tesla operating insurance for our cars at a competitive rate, that makes the other car insurance companies offer better rates for Teslas. So it has a bigger effect than you think because it improves total cost -- or insurance costs even when they don't use Tesla Insurance, because now the gigas of the world have to compete with Tesla and cannot charge outrageous insurance for Teslas. So it's great.

So it has an amplified effect, very important. Then it is also giving us a good feedback loop into minimizing the cost of repair of Teslas for all Teslas worldwide, because we obviously want to minimize the cost of repairing a Tesla if it's in a collision and for Tesla Insurance. And previously, we didn't actually have good insight into that because the other insurance companies would cover the cost. And actually, the cost, in some cases, were unreasonably high.

So we've actually adjusted the design of the car and made changes in the software of the car to minimize the cost of repair, obviously minimize -- first, the best repair is no repair, avoid the accident entirely, which since every Tesla comes with the most advanced active safety in the world, whether or not you buy full self-driving, you still get the intelligence of full self-driving for active safety, active collision prevention. So it's giving us this really good feedback for, again, reducing cost -- total cost of ownership and also just figuring out how to get -- if somebody's car is in an accident -- most accidents are actually small. They're like a broken fender or scratched side of the car or something like, the vast majority of accidents. But we're actually solving how to get somebody's car repaired very quickly and efficiently and back in their hands.

And like I said, those improvements actually apply then to old cars. And we're making -- just to emphasize another key point because some of these points might be less, so I apologize for being repetitive. But it's remarkable how small changes in design of the bumper and improving -- obviously improving the logistics of spare part -- providing spare parts needed for collision repair have an enormous effect on the repair cost. So if you're waiting for a part to get repaired and that part takes a month, now you've got a month of having to rent another car.

It's extremely expensive. And of course, you're missing the car that you love and the one you actually want to drive. So this has actually a very significant effect on total cost of ownership and customer happiness.