Tesla Significant Milestones 2023: Your 31/12/2022 lists here

Moderator Forward:
Here begins a thread compiling participants’ predictions as to what major accomplishments, releases, etc. Tesla will have by year-end 2023.

This thread will remain open until -

• 31 January 2023. OR
• The first such accomplishment previously listed by two or more participants occurs

whichever of those comes first.

NB: I had to append this to @CYBRTRK420 's post in order that all makes good sense. His post follows.
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Just created this list of likely achievements / events by Tesla in 2023.

Did I miss anything?

 

[Buckminster]

Just created this list of likely achievements / events by Tesla in 2023.

Did I miss anything?
View attachment 890705

Great stuff - some investor stuff that may not fit your list:

Tax credit
Deferred FSD profits
Moody upgrade
Master Plan 3
Cyberquad
V4 SC
H/W 4.0
ASS
DOJO goes fully live
Optimus prototype
Buyback

 

[JusRelax]

Just created this list of likely achievements / events by Tesla in 2023.

Did I miss anything?
View attachment 890705

Some possible, but slightly less likely achievements:

- Hardware V4 FSD computer announced/released with the Cybertruck
- First V4 Supercharger installation
- Over 20 Optimii working on Tesla factory lines
- Dojo fully operational, decreasing number of days per iteration for FSD builds from ~2 weeks to ~3 days
- Tesla Energy as a utility expands from Texas to two more states

 

[AudubonB]

Copy/pasted to the first post in this thread; thus deleted this one.

 

[petit_bateau]

in Q1 - 2023 : cumulative 4-million vehicles produced (prob mid-Feb)
in Q3 - 2023 : cumulative 5-million vehicles produced (prob mid-Aug)
in Q4 - 2023 : cumulative 6-million vehicles produced (pos last week of Dec / if not second week of Jan-24)

in Q3 - 2023 : number of Supercharger connectors will exceed 50,000 (prob late July)
in Q4 - 2023 : number of Supercharger stations will exceed 6,000 (prob Dec)*

* To scale that, there are 44,000 Shell service stations worldwide. Given the observation that >90% of charging is done at home/work, this means one Supercharger station is equivalent in global coverage terms to ten conventional fossil fuel stations. By the way, Tesla has likely reached >4,500 stations during Q4-2022 and so is now equivalent to Shell in that respect by this metric.

 

[30seconds]

Reporting 2022 EPS of $4.20 / share
Reporting Q1 2023 EPS of $1.65 / share
Getting on track for $8+ / share earnings for 2023

 

[Ogre]

I think @CYBRTRK420 caught most of them and none of them I really disagree with.

These are mostly variants on a theme.

• First year with more than 2m vehicles delivered
• First quarter with 750,000 vehicles shipped.
• Tesla will ship their first 500+ mile range vehicle in the Cybertruck.
• Supercharger v4 launches with 500+ kW charging speeds.
• Hardware 4.0 launches.
• Tesla Energy ships 20 GWh of Megapacks.
• Cathode plant is completed.
• Texas Texas battery production exceeds 10 GWh.
• Texas Lithium plant breaks ground.
• Model Y becomes most popular vehicle in the world for at least 1 quarter.

Stretch goals/ less likely

• Tesla applies for limited Robotaxi service in 1 city.
• Supercharger network opens to 3rd party vehicles.
• Share Price hits another ATH

Random Stuff

• GM will not have 20 EVs by the end of next year.
• The 6 year old Bolt will still be GM’s biggest selling EV for the year.

 

[Brn2Run]

If I asked you which company should be valued more, which would you pick?

Company A has a $385.89 billion market cap, and generated $74.86 billion in revenue, $16.03 billion in cash from operations, $8.91 billion of FCF, and trades at a price to sales of 5.15x and a price to FCF of 43.30x.

Company B has a $384.04 billion market cap, generated $1.17 trillion in revenue, $149.79 billion in cash from operations, and $86.55 billion in FCF over the TTM and trades at a price to sales of 0.33x and a price to FCF multiple of 4.44x.

Anyway, Im guessing that Tesla will deliver 1 700 777 vehicles in 2023.

Other accomplishments - Model S and also X Plaid is extraordinary complishments in my book. Other than that, here in Europe we have only had two cars, or only one car, to sell, last 2-2 1/2 years.

Selling 1.7 mill cars is also really good I think. I read a lot. I may buy the stock as a long term investment for the first time ever (except for trading) this year. I guess the share price 31.12.2023 to be either 140 dollars, or above 300 dollars. Last one if the numbers we read about Tesla energy come true.

The unknown is the demand and CEOs behaviour. What the fans write in here is quite entertaining. Happy I almost never have the time to participate...

I will bet my house that this prediction will not happen:

- Over 20 Optimii working on Tesla factory lines

Anyway, keep up the discussions everyone, wherever on the scale from fan to short seller you are.
Would be nice if there was some kind of way to know if the one writing a post is 25 years old and has only bought one stock ever, or if one are a seasoned investor/experienced in the stock market, "almost only here for the investment, but with a Y in the garage". Dont know how that sounds but some may understand what I mean.

After a little more than 3 years I sold my Model S P100D this summer.., I still miss it.

 

[Brn2Run]

And the comparing of FCF and so on, on top in my pervious post is Tesla against 7-8 automakers combined.

From this article:

Tesla: Determining If More Downside Is Probable (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Shares of Tesla have declined -69.21% in 2022 and -57.32% from May 6. Read what's next for this battleground stock.

seekingalpha.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Stretch goals/ less likely

• Tesla applies for limited Robotaxi service in 1 city.

I think this one is very likely for 2023, and I think that 1st city will be Las Vegas.

Probably not in time for the Superbowl though, although the ads would be awesome.

 

[Singuy]

If I asked you which company should be valued more, which would you pick?

Company A has a $385.89 billion market cap, and generated $74.86 billion in revenue, $16.03 billion in cash from operations, $8.91 billion of FCF, and trades at a price to sales of 5.15x and a price to FCF of 43.30x.

Company B has a $384.04 billion market cap, generated $1.17 trillion in revenue, $149.79 billion in cash from operations, and $86.55 billion in FCF over the TTM and trades at a price to sales of 0.33x and a price to FCF multiple of 4.44x.

Anyway, Im guessing that Tesla will deliver 1 700 777 vehicles in 2023.

Other accomplishments - Model S and also X Plaid is extraordinary complishments in my book. Other than that, here in Europe we have only had two cars, or only one car, to sell, last 2-2 1/2 years.

Selling 1.7 mill cars is also really good I think. I read a lot. I may buy the stock as a long term investment for the first time ever (except for trading) this year. I guess the share price 31.12.2023 to be either 140 dollars, or above 300 dollars. Last one if the numbers we read about Tesla energy come true.

The unknown is the demand and CEOs behaviour. What the fans write in here is quite entertaining. Happy I almost never have the time to participate...

I will bet my house that this prediction will not happen:

- Over 20 Optimii working on Tesla factory lines

Anyway, keep up the discussions everyone, wherever on the scale from fan to short seller you are.
Would be nice if there was some kind of way to know if the one writing a post is 25 years old and has only bought one stock ever, or if one are a seasoned investor/experienced in the stock market, "almost only here for the investment, but with a Y in the garage". Dont know how that sounds but some may understand what I mean.

After a little more than 3 years I sold my Model S P100D this summer.., I still miss it.

What is company B you are referring to? I can't find any companies that has 1.17 trillion dollars in revenue.

 

[30seconds]

And the comparing of FCF and so on, on top in my pervious post is Tesla against 7-8 automakers combined.

From this article:

Tesla: Determining If More Downside Is Probable (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Shares of Tesla have declined -69.21% in 2022 and -57.32% from May 6. Read what's next for this battleground stock.

seekingalpha.com

I think the picture is incomplete without debt and growth

 

[Ogre]

And the comparing of FCF and so on, on top in my pervious post is Tesla against 7-8 automakers combined.

From this article:

Tesla: Determining If More Downside Is Probable (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Shares of Tesla have declined -69.21% in 2022 and -57.32% from May 6. Read what's next for this battleground stock.

seekingalpha.com

“Company B” has had 5 years of declining sales.

You’d buy into that?

 

[Ogre]

A couple addendums to my previous predictions since this is the Year of the Cybertruck.

• V3 Superchargers get an upgrade to 300 or 350 kW.

Cybertruck specific stuff.

• Sometime around March - June we see the first of the beta trucks on the road. Likely at a Supercharger.
• Handover party and first Cybertruck deliveries in early July — August to employees.
  • Full specs announced for the first 2 trims—AWD (dual) and LR (likely tri motor).
  • Either the Single Motor will be officially dropped or Tesla will say it’s coming later (2025 perhaps)
  • Quad motor gets renamed to Quad Plaid and gets pushed back to 2024. (See comments below)
• Cybertruck configuration page with pricing opens October — November and customer deliveries in November - December.
• Only 1 truck will be available in 2023. Likely the tri motor. Second trim will come in early-mid 2024.
• Tesla delivers 5,000 trucks before year end.

I think tri motor instead of quad for LR so they squeeze every last mile out of the drivetrain similar to how they did this with the Semi.

 

[MC3OZ]

Possibly announced Q4 earnings:-

• New vehicle factory location
• New Megapack factory - Iron cathode 4680s

General progress:-

• 4680 production progresses well after the completion of the cathode plant - 15-20 GWh peak annual run-rate by around the end of June 2023.
• Cybertruck production is slower to ramp - 4680 cell supply is adequate.
• Cybertruck production ramping well by the end of 2023, perhaps 3,000 per week run rate.
• Cybertruck well received by customers and reviewers, perhaps it wins some awards.
• Model 3 Highland ramps before the end of 2023, well received, perhaps a $35,000 Model 3 is now available as a base model.
• 5/7 seat versions of Model Y that qualify for the IRA.
• Berlin and Austin ramped to 5,000-6,000 Model Ys per week by June 2023, no demand issues in the US or EU.
• Shanghai focuses on Model 3 Highland production - demand for Highland strong in China and elsewhere.
• Chinese Model Y demand will be adequate after sufficient discounting - lower margins.

Other car makers/ macro.

• A long/deep recession is unlikely.
• The Chinese economy will continue to be patchy, and it will be the major demand concern.
• Even if there is no recession, other car makers will start to struggle with reduced ICE sales.
• The IRA will accelerate the move to EVs, Tesla will be well paced to take advantage of the IRA.
• If there is a recession, some other car makers will have major issues.
• EU, Japanese and US carmakers will continue to lose market share in China.
• Tesla will at least retain market share in China, with cheaper models doing better.
• Except for perhaps BYD, Chinese car makers will not carve out significant additional market share outside China in 2023.
• As per current trends, Chinese car makers will do better in the EU.

 

[legendsk]

I understood oil prices were volatile, but it didn't occur to me that their value could go negative. Now that I'm older and wiser, I'll predict that Tesla stock will go negative on February 17, 2023 at 1:30 PM EST. I have been buying while it was positive until I ran out of money. But when it goes negative, I will continue to acquire shares up to 1,000,000 total, provided the price doesn't drop below $-500.00 per share. This could be affected slightly by a large buy-back of shares by Tesla, but I have no idea which way. . . . . . . .

 

[electric-donut]

• 7 seat Model Y now standard configuration, price remains same as 5 seat model today. This allows all Model Y to be eligible for IRA.
• Tesla offers 3rd row delete option through parts department allowing nominal cost option to remove unwanted 3rd row while retaining IRA rebate.

 

[MP3Mike]

• 7 seat Model Y now standard configuration, price remains same as 5 seat model today. This allows all Model Y to be eligible for IRA.
• Tesla offers 3rd row delete option through parts department allowing nominal cost option to remove unwanted 3rd row while retaining IRA rebate.

Really, they should redesign it so that the 3rd row can be easily removed, like in most minivans.

 

[Lddex]

But not Software update to correct the mistake of taking away USS. Personally that should be their prioity Esp moving forward. As not having a replacement system is a deal breaker for a lot of people.

 

[petit_bateau]

in Q1 - 2023 : cumulative 4-million vehicles produced (prob mid-Feb)
in Q3 - 2023 : cumulative 5-million vehicles produced (prob mid-Aug)
in Q4 - 2023 : cumulative 6-million vehicles produced (pos last week of Dec / if not second week of Jan-24)

in Q3 - 2023 : number of Supercharger connectors will exceed 50,000 (prob late July)
in Q4 - 2023 : number of Supercharger stations will exceed 6,000 (prob Dec)*

* To scale that, there are 44,000 Shell service stations worldwide. Given the observation that >90% of charging is done at home/work, this means one Supercharger station is equivalent in global coverage terms to ten conventional fossil fuel stations. By the way, Tesla has likely reached >4,500 stations during Q4-2022 and so is now equivalent to Shell in that respect by this metric.

in Q1 - 2023 : cumulative 4-million vehicles produced (prob mid-Feb) = ACHIEVED = 01-MAR-2023