Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

These Stocks Will Win No Matter Who Wins the EV Race

Motley Fool continues to demonstrate that they just don't get Tesla. Here's an article that claims to pick wins no matter who wins the EV race.

They begin with the unsupported assertion that EV stocks are overvalued "anyway you look at it." Apparently they are ignorant of Tesla bull theses.

So if they are not recommending Tesla as a way to play the EV race, what do they recommend? NextEra Energy, a power producer with renewable assets; Switchback Energy, which is a SPAC for CargePoint; and a biomethane producer I've never heard of. Allegedly these three are winners no matter who dominates the EV market. But is that true specifically if Tesla were to overwhelmingly dominate.

NextEra has done a good job pivoting to wind, solar and battery generation. But does this position them to enjoy growth it Tesla brings more EVs to market? No. What Motley Fool overlooks is that Tesla Energy produces more power than what Tesla and its EVs produce. Tesla Energy is first in line to benefit from power demand growth from EVs it brings to market. Tesla Energy is a direct competitor to NextEra. So it is not at all certain that NextEra wins no matter who wins the EV race.

ChargePoint may have a valid subscription-based business model. But it is in direct competition with Tesla Superchargers. The vast majority of Tesla owners will not need a subscription to ChargePoint. The greater share Tesla has of the EV market, the less residual demand there is for ChargePoint. So again, ChargePoint is not a winner "no matter who wins the EV race."

Finally, the assertion behind biomethane is that heavy duty commercial vehicles can't all run on batteries so their must be an EV angle for biomethane producers, "no matter who wins the EV race." This is wrong on so many levels, not the least of which is a bloated natural gas industry outbidding each other for the same crumbs of decline demand. But specifically if Tesla wins with the Semi, the who CNG vehicle investment thesis falls apart.

To recap, if Tesla wins the EV race, the future is uncertain for these three alternative investments. Specifically, Tesla competes directly with each of them if you appreciate the full scope of where Musk is leading Tesla. It is curious that Motley Fool (and others) are so eager to find alternatives to investing in Tesla that they miss out on the full scope of investing in Tesla.

It's simple: if you really want to invest in EVs, start with Tesla. Take the time to appreciate all the ways Tesla will extract value from every segment of the EV value chain. Then consider residual opportunities for other companies to participate in the new ecosystem.

 

[mejojo]

Unfortunately, last time I checked you can't take cash or a vacation home with you either.

I keep hoping they will change the rules but each time the answer is the same.

Just curious who you are asking......

 

[ibcs]

I used to do that...however...kids got in the way and these days, i just buy on the dips and HODL. You can make a lot of $$ if you're disciplined enough or just hold the shares that you bought at a bargain

My only issue with HODL is that I run out of money to buy more shares! I'm not an options guy.

 

[Nocturnal]

Man, if IV goes up a little I may have to sell some covered calls. $1200 Jan 2022s are at $83. I've been wrong before but that seems unlikely to wind up in the money. Just a few though. My luck robotaxi would get launched in October and the stock would go to 3k.

So if they are not recommending Tesla as a way to play the EV race, what do they recommend? NextEra Energy, a power producer with renewable assets; Switchback Energy, which is a SPAC for CargePoint; and a biomethane producer I've never heard of. Allegedly these three are winners no matter who dominates the EV market. But is that true specifically if Tesla were to overwhelmingly dominate.

I don't think Fool gives good advice at all. I am invested in SBE, but every Tesla owner I know has a ChargePoint account. Personally I've used their chargers probably 20x more often than Superchargers.

 

[JustMe]

Hey everyone, TSLA is doing that thing again where it goes straight up

$710 just now

 

[Unpilot]

A new years eve 700 party is going to be so cool.

Might have to revise this to the 720 party for New years.

 

[4chi]

You can set up an account for them yourself, though you'll need their SSN to do it. Then there are rules about the maximum amount anyone can receive per year in a 529 account, but it's pretty high, but you would want to check with your friend to make sure your account + their account (+ any others) don't exceed that maximum.

I think the limit generally applies to each account, but there can be many accounts set up that benefit the same beneficiary.

I can't find a way to do a 529 that allows me to purchase individual stocks, and least not one that provides the Colorado income tax deduction for contributions.

So as an additional gift to my son turning 17 today I created a custodial account for him that he gets full access to when he turns 21. Seeded it with one share of TSLA that I have bought at 639 a few weeks ago. So he's already got a nice gain before he even opens the envelope later today.

EDIT: And while I was posting this we just hit 711. A magic number for my account that I've long had my eye on. Pretty pretty pretty good.

 

[JustMe]

Man, if IV goes up a little I may have to sell some covered calls. $1200 Jan 2022s are at $83. I've been wrong before but that seems unlikely to wind up in the money. Just a few though. My luck

You’re betting TSLA won’t go up by 70% in one year after it went up over 700% in 2020.

I’m not so sure about that

 

[Cosmacelf]

“Right now, I'm spending more time on the Giga Berlin than any other thing at Tesla. And actually, I'm spending a lot of time on just working through the permits.”



Elon, from: Elon Musk reveals Tesla's plan to be at the forefront of a self-driving-car revolution — and why he wants to be buried on Mars

 

[jhm]

Man, if IV goes up a little I may have to sell some covered calls. $1200 Jan 2022s are at $83. I've been wrong before but that seems unlikely to wind up in the money. Just a few though. My luck robotaxi would get launched in October and the stock would go to 3k.


I don't think Fool gives good advice at all. I am invested in SBE, but every Tesla owner I know has a ChargePoint account. Personally I've used their chargers probably 20x more often than Superchargers.

That's curious, I've never met a Tesla owner who told me they had a subscription to another charging network. Perhaps this is a more local phenomena.

It would be nice to hear from others. You can count me as a Tesla owner who has never used a non-Tesla charger.

 

[elasalle]

milestone - my personal Account with just 27K at it's lowest point last Dec, joined the 7 digit club

 

[Spacep0d]

Holy smokes! Looks like 2020 will end with a bang....or a Tesla Boombox Sound file. Either way, nice to see 700+!

 

[Nocturnal]

You’re betting TSLA won’t go up by 70% in one year after it went up over 700% in 2020.

I’m not so sure about that

I know. I'm second guessing myself now. I may look at earlier expire dates to avoid Berlin and/or Austin being up and running. Mid-year may be safe. Or I'll probably just be boring and hold.

 

[Curt Renz]

InsideEvs - 7 minutes ago: Tesla Cars Among Highest-Quality Vehicles Made In China: J.D. Power

Excerpts:

According to a recent report by South China Morning Post, Tesla's vehicles produced at the Shanghai Gigafactory in China were near the top of the list in a recent J.D. Power quality survey. In fact, only NIO fared better than Tesla overall...

The J.D. Power study should also help Tesla prove that PingWest's claims are out of bounds. The study attempts to measure the quality of new vehicles by surveying owners. A lower number suggests fewer issues cited based on the number of vehicle reports. While the average score is 143, Tesla earned a 113, and NIO topped the list with 109.

 

[Tslynk67]

The Calls you sell this year to create CC, Vertical spreads are not taxed this year, but at close/expiry.
So I created some Vertical spreads (e.g. bought 450 jan 23 for like 150 days before S&P announcement, and sold Jan 23 1300 on Dec 20th for like 120 ... $850 spread for 30$) and took some monies to the bank .. to pay off mortgages
~ cheers!!
(+Hope I am not in for any big tax surprises)

Fairly simple for me, I hold:
- 15x June 2022 c700's (paid $58, trading at $220)
- 20x June 2022 c2350 (paid $29, trading at, $475)

Obviously I could sell all these for a tasty $1.3m as of now - not too bad from a cost of ~$125k, 10x, or there abouts...

However, these are in my corporate trading account, which is taxable 25-30% (more fool me for trading there and making a fortune...), so my strategy is rather to sell the $700's for enough to cover the exercise of the $250's in 2022 and cover the tax of realising the gains on the $700's, so would need approximately $700k, or roughly $500 per contract, which now they're ITM would imply an SP in the mid $900's

And then I get 2000 shares for $500k...

It's a plan, at least

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I’m thinking one of the biggest drivers of revenue in 2021 will be people getting speaker retrofits so they can make their tesla fart at people on the street.

 

[Unpilot]

I got my brother to invest in TSLA last year. He keeps selling and buying it back.
He tells me I should "lock" in the profit's. It has crossed my mind to take some off the table...but I keep pulling the sell orders as I don't need the cash now...and the SP just keeps sailing past those sell prices.

Last one was 700 (3500)....I said last year if it hit that I would sell some....nope not a chance now..HODL!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Prediction for 2021 ... Model X refresh without falcon wing doors

 

[Nocturnal]

That's curious, I've never met a Tesla owner who told me they had a subscription to another charging network. Perhaps this is a more local phenomena.

It would be nice to hear from others. You can count me as a Tesla owner who has never used a non-Tesla charger.

Hmm, yeah I'd be curious too. Here in KC we have chargepoint chargers all over the place. Parking garages, the zoo, parks, grocery stores, businesses etc. I only use superchargers when I go on long trips. These L2s I've used randomly to opportunity charge or if I happened to have been out all day and wanted to charge at the gym or store.

I got my brother to invest in TSLA last year. He keeps selling and buying it back.
He tells me I should "lock" in the profit's. It has crossed my mind to take some off the table...but I keep pulling the sell orders as I don't need the cash now...and the SP just keeps sailing past those sell prices.

Last one was 700 (3500)....I said last year if it hit that I would sell some....nope not a chance now..HODL!

I had a target % of my portfolio that I wanted to be in TSLA after the big rise and I skimmed just to get there. Having a hard target makes it easier to either selling more than you want because you got nervous or not selling any because you fear it will rise.

 

[reardencode]

Closed some of my Jan15 550c to spread the tax burden.

Happy new year to all and to all a new ATH!