-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Well I can't just yet as I firstly need to make it to next year (for tax purposes), then ideally would like the SP at $1000 to initiate the chain-reaction to exercise my 20x June 2022 $250's... But will see how it pans-out...
Plus I will continue selling covered calls as it strikes me as way better than selling shares.
Other than that, I agree
The Calls you sell this year to create CC, Vertical spreads are not taxed this year, but at close/expiry.
So I created some Vertical spreads (e.g. bought 450 jan 23 for like 150 days before S&P announcement, and sold Jan 23 1300 on Dec 20th for like 120 ... $850 spread for 30$) and took some monies to the bank .. to pay off mortgages
~ cheers!!
(+Hope I am not in for any big tax surprises)
Dancing Lemur
Hoopy Frood
The battle line is set. Will the old skool sellers of options be able to hold the line against the upstart RHers seeking tendies?
The popcorn is popped. The trigger finger is ready.
Let the Great NYE Battle for 700 commence!
The popcorn is popped. The trigger finger is ready.
Let the Great NYE Battle for 700 commence!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Here is today's TSLA Tech chart as of 09:30 EST: (Note: Upper-BB at Market Opening was $704.31)
Cheers!
Cheers!
lafrisbee
Active Member
Is this board broken under the shock..THAT WAS $700
EDIT: During hours.
EDIT: During hours.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Where the hell is everyone? You all run to the wine cellars and liquor cabinets?
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
You need to wake up earlier. We've been celebrating $700 for 2½ hours in premarket. It gets old quick. Onwards.
LOL @hoang51 rated my post as funny so I reread and realize the post makes no sense. Second digit, not first decimal. To completely lift the veil, I'm into the next hundred thousand level.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
$700 is just a number. The significance of $695 @ Tesla joining the S&P is special. Joining the S&P should not be underappreciated. It now opens the door that allows funds to buy TSLA that could not do so before.
20 years ago, Nortel Networks, a public telecommunications and data networking equipment manufacturer, was Canada's most valuable company at >$380B. At its peak, Nortel made up almost 35% of the value of the Toronto Stock Exchange TSE 300. At the time I only owned Mutual Funds (agas, forgive my sins), and I remember going through the annual prospectus of each of my Mutual Funds (oil & gas (more sins), science & technology, medical, natural resources, auto, etc.) and I was shocked to learn that every single Mutual Fund, no matter what specialty, had Nortel Networks fully maxed out to 5% of their fund value. Essentially if a fund was not carrying Nortel Networks, it was not competive with its peers. Fund managers needed to keep up with their competitors so they were all buying the high flyer. They all had to have it.
20 years ago, Nortel Networks, a public telecommunications and data networking equipment manufacturer, was Canada's most valuable company at >$380B. At its peak, Nortel made up almost 35% of the value of the Toronto Stock Exchange TSE 300. At the time I only owned Mutual Funds (agas, forgive my sins), and I remember going through the annual prospectus of each of my Mutual Funds (oil & gas (more sins), science & technology, medical, natural resources, auto, etc.) and I was shocked to learn that every single Mutual Fund, no matter what specialty, had Nortel Networks fully maxed out to 5% of their fund value. Essentially if a fund was not carrying Nortel Networks, it was not competive with its peers. Fund managers needed to keep up with their competitors so they were all buying the high flyer. They all had to have it.
Last edited:
One thing I try to avoid talking too much about is the use of various derivative instruments in hedging. To very knowledgable people there is high value, but even very adept ones make drastic mistakes. Check Delta Airlines oil hedging history for reference, although many other dramatic cases, some fraudulent, have caught experts flatfooted. Check:Well I can't just yet as I firstly need to make it to next year (for tax purposes), then ideally would like the SP at $1000 to initiate the chain-reaction to exercise my 20x June 2022 $250's... But will see how it pans-out...
Plus I will continue selling covered calls as it strikes me as way better than selling shares.
Other than that, I agree
The Vanishing Salad Oil: A $100 Million Mystery (Published 1964)
Hedging acquired a bad name when 'hedge funds' stopped hedging and began outright speculation.
With TSLA we have giants of Enron discoveries and others who find something they think is fraudulent or weak and try to force it down and out. Every single one of us should know that TSLA is the most-shorted stock in recent memory by many standards. In such conditions it is foolish to try to deal in options except in cases such as @Lycanthrope describes.
There are nearly endless stories of huge losses in derivatives including every option category.
The industry began in 1848 as a means to help farmers predict prices and purchasers to do the same thing. Anybody dealing in this arena ought to know the history, lest one runs a large risk of repeating that history.
Start here with the wiki, if you really want to know how all this began:
Chicago Board of Trade - Wikipedia
Then look here to see how Nobel Prize winners blew it triggering near destruction pf the world financial system:
Long-Term Capital Management - Wikipedia
Then just think about the Black-Scholes-Merton Model:
How the Black Scholes Price Model Works
I admit my reticence about this subject comes from being in seminars taught by two of those people in 1971 while the work was being done that won the Nobel Prize.
Just know that in the really fine print the model was intended for a specific subset of European options. Nearly everyone has forgotten that, including two of those people.
Bluntly, these instruments are now roughly on a par with betting systems. The technologies are largely identical. The house wins, all others have net losses.
When one does true hedging those costs are often reasonable. When one speculates, one loses! The house makes sure that their takes does not make everyone lose, nor anybody lose all the time. Like betting systems, the occasional wins generate false confidence.
Once again, 2020 is analogous to 1972 and early 2008, maybe even 1928, Elon sees us in the Roaring 20's, after all. Longs will not be harmed and will probably thrive. Many speculators will have a sad year in 2021.
Probably the people making all those sweet profits will not heed these warnings from some of us. I am keeping at it because the Tesla community is precious to me and I really will be sad if some of us end out paying the price for irrational exuberance. Frankly, following this advice will not make anybody lose any money, so long as they do not sell. Staying in is another story.
Of course I am older than most of us. I bear the scars of 1973. I learned soon enough that I managed to recover before too long. A financial life doing many workouts and liquidations taught me how often those same mistakes keep being repeated. The failures disappear and new smarter people reinvent the same mistakes.
Anybody who wonders how this might happen now might study the career of, say, Steve Mnuchin. Don't leave out the details of Sears and IndyMac, or Trump Tower Chicago.
Superficiality in investment is just like superficiality in any major decision.
Tesla has changed my life as it's done for many people on this forum. I just have to say, I started with an advertisement seeing a new all electric vehicle on the PriusChat forum. I had already modified a Prius to work in EV only mode adding an extra battery in the trunk from Hymotion. I told my wife when I sent Telsa 5,000 dollars that had never built a car for the Model S (later turned into Signature), it was either going to be the stupidest thing I ever did or the smartest. Ten years later, 2 factory tours, giga factory tour, countless new friends and seeing Musk speak at the one of the events I personally feel amazed that it all worked out. It's been an incredible ride and it's not over yet.
Good luck everyone hoping for a close around 702 to keep that new first digit.
Be safe and Happy New Year to all.
I have a commemorative order for 10 shares at 3471 pre-split. Wondering if the MMD will be deep enough...
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
I'm 1/10th of the way to a Teslanaire now. Small fish compared to you guys but I'm glad to be swimming in the same direction as everyone else in this thread now. (Wish I found it sooner... hindsight, right?)
I’m with you. I Didn’t jump in until battery day and wish I found this thread at least a year earlier. Was spending too much time in the Model Y forum.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Today could be more exciting than inclusion day! Quite the battlefield at $695.
lafrisbee
Active Member
So?
Everything is pure conjecture on my part...
If the S&P Committee made the unprecedented decision to announce that TSLA would be included 31 days in advance just so all the Money Grubbers/Market Makers would have enough time to acquire the shares needed for inclusion without having the Stock Price be North of $1000. And by announcing the inclusion the Professionals would be seen as being honest and forthright as their reason for doing so was purely to get the thoughts of the Trading Public, and not one of releasing a well-designed plan (already constructed) to blunt the train wreck adding TSLA in the normal 10 days would have done. The early announcement looks so innocent on the surface.
All those that were an inside part of it agreed to certain conditions that were favorable and fair to all of those that were needed for the plan.
ie, NOT you and me.
So first the agreed upon Closing Cross Price was $695 to protect the most profit available on the TRIPLE witching day while not appearing greedy, and expending the least resources for the most gain.
And then we come to today.... $695 was closing cross. What if one of the "conditions" was that the MM's could dick around with the SP up until the last day of the year. At which time it had to close at the closing cross price or above to make the Index funds happy...
Everything is pure conjecture on my part...
If the S&P Committee made the unprecedented decision to announce that TSLA would be included 31 days in advance just so all the Money Grubbers/Market Makers would have enough time to acquire the shares needed for inclusion without having the Stock Price be North of $1000. And by announcing the inclusion the Professionals would be seen as being honest and forthright as their reason for doing so was purely to get the thoughts of the Trading Public, and not one of releasing a well-designed plan (already constructed) to blunt the train wreck adding TSLA in the normal 10 days would have done. The early announcement looks so innocent on the surface.
All those that were an inside part of it agreed to certain conditions that were favorable and fair to all of those that were needed for the plan.
ie, NOT you and me.
So first the agreed upon Closing Cross Price was $695 to protect the most profit available on the TRIPLE witching day while not appearing greedy, and expending the least resources for the most gain.
And then we come to today.... $695 was closing cross. What if one of the "conditions" was that the MM's could dick around with the SP up until the last day of the year. At which time it had to close at the closing cross price or above to make the Index funds happy...
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
