Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

InsideEV estimate:

Cumulative Tesla Model 3 Production Estimate Exceeds 150,000

• 2018’Q4 – already 60,523 produced (estimated)

Production and deliveries of Model 3 in previous quarters thus far:

• 2017’Q3 – 260 produced, and 222 delivered
• 2017’Q4 – 2,425 produced and 1,542 delivered
• 2018’Q1 – 9,766 produced and 8,182 delivered
• 2018’Q2 – 28,578 produced and 18,449 delivered
• 2018’Q3 – 53,239 produced and 56,065 delivered

 

[SebastianR]

To every member of the media who reported a negative story about Tesla in 2018, I want you to look at the picture of these Tesla employees and ask yourself whether you feel one-tenth as accomplished in your job as these people feel.

Careful with this reasoning: you might invite even more vicious media responses going forward. The media business has failed to adopt to the internet age and is barely a shadow of its former self: from click-baiting content farms to "democratisation of knowledge and power" the media is attacked (rightfully and maybe not so rightfully) by everyone: politicians want them to push their agenda, business seek advertising, activists push their perspectives and experts mock the media for oversimplification/distortion of their reporting. At the same time the speed of the internet prohibits fact checking and proper research - thus most media has a "shoot first, ask questions later" mentality. The sad truth is: There are 5 reasons real journalism doesn't pay any longer - and number 3 will really surprise you!

Why do I caution against this reasoning? Because it works against us. Do you know the concept of Bull$hit jobs? (apologies for language but this is a terminus technicus): Bullshit Jobs: A Theory by David Graeber review – the myth of capitalist efficiency

I would argue that journalism is more and more a bull$hit job and that frustrates journalists. The argument then is that:

Rather than directing our frustration at the system itself, we let it curdle into resentment towards workers with less bullshit jobs. Thus the hated “liberal elite” are those who get paid to indulge in such compelling and glamorous activities that many people would undertake them for free.

Ergo, by reminding the media that their jobs is mindless content farming, stirring up of controversy for clicks and other none-sense and that Tesla folks are less likely to have a BS job, you will only increase the scorn of the Business Insider & Co... (even though you are of course 100% right).

 

[Fact Checking]

I am buying LEAPS on Wednesday.

CALLs or PUTs?

 

[Alphacrux]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
Congratulations @Tesla team!!

11:17 PM - 31 Dec 2018


Note Elon in the middle of the second row from the front with his arm raised. They all look pretty happy.

It almost looks like they are signaling with the number of fingers raised. The row with Elon could be 2 0 1 (5+3) = 2018. Elon appears to have 3 fingers raised. The last row could almost be viewed as 2019, if you count the man at the back right with 10 fingers raised as 9. I’m probably delusional after waking up in the middle of the night, trying to read the number of fingers raised as some sort of message. Elon really has four fingers raised, so I guess that they are just celebrating and wishing us a happy 2019!

 

[Fact Checking]

At the same time the speed of the internet prohibits fact checking and proper research - thus most media has a "shoot first, ask questions later" mentality.

I take issue with that overgeneralization.

Speed indeed increases the probability of mistakes, but mistakes can be fixed: online articles are far easier to edit after they get published than paper articles!

Remaining factual is also exceedingly easy if a journalist doesn't intentionally lie or mislead about Tesla: the most damaging 2018 articles about Tesla were carefully engineered hit pieces where the authors knew exactly what they were doing.

David Gelles of the New York Times even gleefully tweeted his joy about seeing $TSLA crash after his "interview" with Elon Musk:

Twitter

"Tesla $TSLA stock now down close to 4 percent in pre market trading. Wonder why?"​

There was also the recent incident where CBS's "60 Minutes" edited the interview with Elon in bad faith, with a clear intent to stir up controversy between Elon and the Tesla board and Elon and the SEC ... We only learned about this because Tesla did a full recording of the interview - otherwise it would be the usual 'he said she said' controversy.

These weren't just third tier business rags, the NYT and CBS are the supposed pinnacles of respectable journalism...

What we are seeing in the media, especially when it comes to Tesla reporting, is conscious bad faith and blatant bias. No, it's not blatant bias, but BLATANT bias.

The reasons for it are complex, the solution to it will take time, but I'm pretty certain that the solution doesn't include: "not calling out journalists when they write damaging bullshit*t, because it might increase their resentment against the Tesla community".

Happy New 2019 to everyone!

 

[jhm]

Ja'loja 2019!

 

[Earlian]

Looks like the click-bait article about the 3k inventory by@electrek develops into a trap.

Google.de newest "news"-Headlines are repeating this nonsense. (Sure not selling half a day !edit: week! production would be crazy?!? Why does no one thinks themselves anymore?)

Spoiler: "News"

Will be a nice awakening.

Happy new year to everyone!

 

[saniflash]

Sure not selling half a day production would be crazy?!?

half a week worth of production. Anyway, I agree this is crazy nonsense. But now we see why it's so tempting for Fred to write articles in such a tonality instead of a more neutral tone.

PS: HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone! Thanks for giving me the strength and optimism I sometimes need to remain long and strong.....

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

New Years resolution: Buy more TSLA with 2019 Roth IRA contribution before delivery/earnings report comes out.

 

[avoigt]

Looks like the click-bait article about the 3k inventory by@electrek develops into a trap.

Google.de newest "news"-Headlines are repeating this nonsense. (Sure not selling half a day !edit: week! production would be crazy?!? Why does no one thinks themselves anymore?)

Spoiler: "News"

View attachment 365150

Will be a nice awakening.

Happy new year to everyone!

Its unfortunately again one of the articles from Fred that needs to be called click-bait itself.

You cannot run an auto company without inventory in transit and not without inventory which are two different items. Half a week inventory is defined as a demand issue which does not make any sense to me. We do not even know if that number is correct.

Indeed its likely one of the lowest if not the lowest inventory any automaker has globally.

All the rest in the article is pure speculation. If I want to read pure speculation then I go to Reddit or Twitter but always thought Electrek has higher standards. Disappointed again. Of course its copied everywhere and people write about a 2% SP drop that actually was equalized at the end of the day.

We will see how this article will be seen once the Q4 numbers are out.

 

[Fact Checking]

half a week worth of production. Anyway, I agree this is crazy nonsense.

Let's keep in mind that in Q2 there was a burst of production with 11k "Model 3's in transit" going into Q3. This front-loaded Q3 deliveries quite a bit: deliveries were 56k on 53k of production.

End of Q4 the "Model 3's in transit" value was 8k, lower by 3k than at the end of Q2.

End of Q2 was a similar 5k/week rate than end of Q3 production. So all other things equal we could expect 8k Model 3's in transit at the end of Q4: 8k.

But all other things are not equal:

• Deliveries are much smoother and delivery logistics delays got slashed,
• Tesla activated a couple of late delivery optimization measures, such as sales to employees (who are naturally close to the factory),
• there's a reported 3,000 units of not yet assigned (sold) Model 3's - which are not "vehicles in transit".

The net effect of these factors is hard to estimate, but my guess is that the 3,000 excess units will be almost completely countered by the other measures.

I.e. Model 3's in transit could drop to 5k, counterbalancing the 3k increase in inventory. If production was 60.9k then deliveries could follow the historic track record and be ~4k higher, at 64.9k.

Which would be a nice round 4,990 deliveries per week.

 

[Heimdallr]

Happy New Year, everyone! 2019 will shape up to be the a phenomenal year for Tesla. Looking forward to it!

 

[Vitold]

It does not matter to me what Fred thinks, what I appreciate is knowing the number at the same time hedge funds do.

Edit: I think Tesla is strong enough now to be unfazed by it long term ( I still think that TSLA will be lower where it is now after reporting)

Happy 2019

 

[HG Wells]

To: Boss Short

Did your wife get that red model X in time for the tax rebate ?
I know it was kind of short notice she gave you about having to close your short position.
Did she make you go long too ?

My wife made me close my short position on December 13th. That really hurt.
She says if I go long she will let me drive her blue model 3. Otherwise I get the fiat 500e.

Well, we were running out of bad things to say about Tesla and Elon.
Still think we could have dropped the price by talking about his weight.
You never know.

Best Wishes
Your Former Partner In Crime
Retired Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[Cattledog]

Could we have another record quarter?

Bank

 

[Unknown_Wizard]

Electrec article is cited in German "newspapers" as well...

Steuervorteil halbiert sich mit Jahresbeginn 2019: Tesla blieb 2018 auf 3000 Model 3 sitzen

https://app.handelsblatt.com/untern...ml?ticket=ST-3146976-DOZnUzeEHytkEe90GtrD-ap5

Nonsense... maybe a bear trap from Fred.

 

[SebastianR]

These weren't just third tier business rags, the NYT and CBS are the supposed pinnacles of respectable journalism...

What we are seeing in the media, especially when it comes to Tesla reporting, is conscious bad faith and blatant bias. No, it's not blatant bias, but BLATANT bias.

Fully agree.

The reasons for it are complex, the solution to it will take time, but I'm pretty certain that the solution doesn't include: "not calling out journalists when they write damaging bullshit*t, because it might increase their resentment against the Tesla community".

That's not what I wanted to imply. Calling out specific posts, articles, individuals etc. is all good and required. But what I don't think is helpful is to characterise their "work" as unaccomplished as opposed to what Tesla achieves.

I'm perfectly fine saying: "Fred, you mix opinion with hearsay - your "scoop" of the 3000 inventory vehicles is shoddy work mixed with uniformed opinion - don't do that, that's not professional journalism!"

I'm less ok with saying what my post above was answering to. I don't even care how "accomplished" Linette Lopez (or any other member of the media) feel...

Anyways - I just wanted to say "Happy New Year!" and thanks for your many many many extremely helpful postings @Fact Checking!

 

[Buckminster]

calm my anxiety for this wonderful and terryfing new thing that will change my life forever.

No fair. How come people know this stuff before they have a baby these days...

InsideEV estimate:

Cumulative Tesla Model 3 Production Estimate Exceeds 150,000

• 2018’Q4 – already 60,523 produced (estimated)

Production and deliveries of Model 3 in previous quarters thus far:

• 2017’Q3 – 260 produced, and 222 delivered
• 2017’Q4 – 2,425 produced and 1,542 delivered
• 2018’Q1 – 9,766 produced and 8,182 delivered
• 2018’Q2 – 28,578 produced and 18,449 delivered
• 2018’Q3 – 53,239 produced and 56,065 delivered

Is that Q2 was poor or that Q3 was great that makes these numbers so crazy good?

 

[Zaxxon]

New Years resolution: Buy more TSLA with 2019 Roth IRA contribution before delivery/earnings report comes out.

Funding secured.

my guess is that the 3,000 excess units will be almost completely countered by the other measures.

It's important to realize that the rumored 3k unsold inventory was prior to the start of 12/31 sales. If Tesla had a terrible day yesterday, they would still have certainly burned through a significant number of those given the delivery activity we saw.

With Musk's triumphant-looking tweeted photo, I don't think they had a terrible day.

So we shouldn't expect to have to deal with 3k, but something much less. I'm guessing more like 1k.

 

[Buckminster]

Volkswagen's currywurst factory: motoring's strangest production line | Autocar
What a bunch of weiners...