Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Yuri_G]

Tesla to attend 2019 LA Auto Show, will offer test drives

"Tesla will be making its presence known at the upcoming 2019 Los Angeles Auto Show, with the electric car maker scheduled to offer test drives for its lineup of vehicles to interested participants of the event. The test drive sessions have been formally listed on the LA Auto Show’s official website.

The LA Auto Show is an event that has been graced by Tesla over the years, though the company’s previous efforts have been far more understated. Last year, for example, Tesla’s booth at the Los Angeles-based event was very simple, showcasing the company’s lineup of vehicles and its energy products. The same was true for Tesla’s 2017 LA Auto Show booth."

Expect the Pickup to be debuted shown there.

Tesla always does their own reveal. They might have Ys at the LA auto show to test drive, at best.

 

[elasalle]

Amazingly, I agreed with 90% of the points Adam Jonas made. In this interview he certainly was showing an increasing amount of respect towards Tesla, and even defended Tesla against the negative narrative of the Bloomberg reporter.

The contrast he drew between Toyota (most valuable auto company with zero EVs) and Tesla (most shorted auto company with only EVs) was downright genial. I almost came to the conclusion that he cares about the EV transition.

A few mistakes he made IMO:

• He hyped fleet EV sales - while missing the immense rate of simple ICE replacement sales that are ~15 million vehicles per year in the US alone. Those are the primary target of EV market share expansion. Yes, more difficult - but also highly lucrative and the viral marketing is very valuable for zero-advertising Tesla, more so than corporate fleet sales.
• He completely ignored the commercial EV truck business (Tesla Semi), which is both huge and high margin, and easier to disrupt because fleet sales are indeed the major expansion factor there, and it's the bottom line that matters in the trucking business, not perception and consumer fears. Regulatory limits against ICE trucks will also be imposed faster, once there are competitive EV trucks.
• He thinks Tesla's China margin improvements will be temporary: big mistake, China wants 100% EV sales by 2030-2035, and they just built a factory for Tesla in record time to accelerate that process, using their star state owned construction firm that they use for high profile construction projects. China: ~25 million vehicle sales per year, ~5 million of them in Tesla's price category ... addressable market: 10x of Tesla's current global production, and if China GDP grows 6-7% per year that expands car ASPs as well.

But nice interview overall, I can see the old Adam Jonas of 2015-2016 who was a Tesla super-bull, rising from the ashes again.

Last Question.
Mr Jonas As you are the de-facto expert on Tesla.
is Tesla still going to $10

 

[EVNow]

I totally disagree that TSLA is not actively manipulated, and it's almost certainly with the involvement of the MMs. In the world of potentially disruptive speculative stocks, I've never seen such unnatural price action. And I believe it would require the collusion of MMs to achieve what I'm seeing. Most likely it's some kind of unholy alliance of big oil money with the MMs.

Problem with conspiracy theories is that - the bigger the conspiracy needs to be the less likely it is.

As the most shorted big cap stock, obviously Tesla price is manipulated. Hedge funds look like the most likely culprits. If MMs were doing the manipulation we'd hear about someone losing lot of money by taking oversized risks.

 

[EVNow]

Yes - the information Franco Mosotto provides is excellent:
Of the 11 ships to depart/departed by day 35 of the quarter, we know the destination of 8 of them:

4 to EU
2 to CN
2 to KR

Can anyone estimate the number of vehicles per ship?

View attachment 471741

Check my posts about it.

Look at number of loading days (between 7 AM and 5 PM roughly). Each day between 1,000 and 1,500 cars are loaded. Lets say avg of 1,250. So, you get an approximate number of cars shipped.

 

[humbaba]

20 years? You really believe that? Everyone is working increasing battery density, everyone is working solid state batteries. Toyota will debut solid state batteries next summer in the transports they are building for the summer games in Japan. Competition does not stand still, especially as I stated in another post when profit is the motivator.

Toyota has been trying to make solid state batteries work for vehicles, but they aren't doing any EVs unless they are compelled to: their plans are for "electrified" cars -- that is hybrid, hydrogen and, maybe, EV, where regulators force them to. They have made it abundantly clear that they are not interested in EVs, presumably because that lowers maintenance revenue.

When it comes to solid state there are a lot of interested parties researching it. As they should. But the hype has been hot and hard for years and shows no signs of letting up. Just as a recent example [2]:

But solid-state batteries will increase energy storage without adding weight or bulk. That will extend the range of electric vehicles. They also eliminate the flammability issues that are inherent in lithium-ion batteries.

The technology is advancing rapidly and could be ready for commercial use within a few years. That’s the assessment of a report from ABI Research, a New York-based advanced-technologies research firm.

"could be ready within a few years" -- yeah, sell $TSLA because in a few years there could be an improvement in battery technology. Of course, next year Tesla is planning on talking about their battery developments, but that isn't important.

As for summer games, I guess you are referring to this [1]:

If possible, by the time we have the Olympic games next year, we would like to make sure that a solid-state battery can be unveiled to the public.

Wow. "if possible" "we would like". Maybe someone who is more knowledgeable about Japanese culture can help me, but to a westerner those weasel words completely undermine the statement and suggest a more accurate/honest statement would read, "After nearly ten years of minimal results from research into solid state batteries we hope to demonstrate a proof-of-concept low capacity battery for a hybrid."

So Toyota, notorious for resisting any EV production is finally talking about making some. For China (and Europe). Because they have to. [3]

This accelerated EV push is a direct response to tougher emissions requirements in China and Europe. Toyota will start making EVs for the Chinese market next year, with plans to release at least 10 EV models worldwide by the early 2020s.

So Toyota will start making these solid state battery powered EVs next year? The same year they plan on revealing their first public demo of a solid state battery? Or perhaps this has to do with the Toyota/Panasonic partnership and nothing to do with a not-yet-ready-for-use-in-an-EV solid state battery? [4]

Toyota and Panasonic have confirmed that they are starting a wide-ranging new battery joint-venture to manufacture and sell battery cells for electric vehicles.

I seem to have lost the links I had for tracking actual progress on solid state batteries, but to give an idea about how difficult they are to develop: [5]

Unfortunately, the characteristics of a solid-state battery for EV use can’t be described yet, because no one has produced such a battery of the appropriate size and cost for an electric vehicle.

“That is exactly the problem,” says Dr. Milan Rosina, Senior Analyst, Power Electronics & Batteries, within the Power & Wireless division, Yole Développement (Yole). “We can describe different approaches, both on materials and manufacturing level, but we need more data from the testing of the whole battery-cell stack and about the design and components of the battery stack (including thermal management, BMS, etc.).

Toyota (and many others) have been researching solid state for many years now. Maybe a breakthrough against the fundamental constraints that prevent them being useful for EVs has been made. Maybe. In the meantime, Toyota's 10-year plan is expiring and they have to show something for it. But it appears that the EVs they are forced to make will be powered by lithium-ion prismatic cells made by Panasonic.

1) Toyota accelerates target for EV with solid-state battery to 2020

2) Solid-State Batteries Could Power Electric Vehicle Breakthrough

3) New Solid-State Battery Developed for Lexus Electric Vehicles

4) Toyota and Panasonic confirm wide-ranging new battery partnership for electric vehicles - Electrek

5) Who Will Win the Race for an EV Solid-State Battery?

 

[ZsoZso]

20 years? You really believe that? Everyone is working increasing battery density, everyone is working solid state batteries. Toyota will debut solid state batteries next summer in the transports they are building for the summer games in Japan. Competition does not stand still, especially as I stated in another post when profit is the motivator.

LOL, right after they flooded the market with their Fool Cell vehicles, you mean ?
You know, the ones they spent 20 years and many billions of $$$ developing and sold only a few hundred so far...

 

[jbcarioca]

...
Otherwise, its 'la mort' for Groupe PSA and 'arrivederci' for FCA. They will be fortunate to survive the next 10 years. They face at least as much risk as Tesla did over the last 10 years, but more time pressure to scale up production. And they have to remain solvent while killing off their own ICE business.

I give them 1 chance in 3.

I think your odds are realistic. However, that ~30% odds depends greatly on the ability of Tavares and Elkann to navigate very hazardous environments. Both of them have proven time and time again that they are exceptional at "making a silk purse of a sow's ear". This is indeed much different than their last challenges. Frankly, I give them quite high odds of success IF, and only IF, they can find a huge supply of batteries somewhere unexpected. This will not be easy. Still they do have that one in three chances. Nobody really imagined either of them could survive as well as they have done. Both have managed to make money when almost nobody thought they could.

My less pessimistic outlook is only because neither of them, nor Manley, have failed yet. Anybody who saw the insides of those two groups five years ago (I saw parts of both) really expected them to succeed. What Tavares did with GM Europe boggles the mind! What Elkann has managed with Chrysler while staving off Fiat disaster cannot be underestimated either. Of course this is different...

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

20 years? You really believe that? Everyone is working increasing battery density, everyone is working solid state batteries. Toyota will debut solid state batteries next summer in the transports they are building for the summer games in Japan. Competition does not stand still, especially as I stated in another post when profit is the motivator.

I was telling a friend of mine the other day to think about where battery technology would be had EVs won the day in the early days of the automobile - or even had they gained momentum some time in the last 30 years. I truly believe we'd have a battery 1/4th the size of today's battery's powering cars for over 1000 miles.

The only real question is - is this finally the time for EVs to gain that momentum? I know a LOT of people here think so, but there are 10 times more people on the other side who believe it's just a passing fad (or an environmentalists movement that's being forced on everyone) - and trust me, the oil companies, dealership associations, and legacy automakers are doing their best to push any narrative they can to kill this momentum before the real tipping point truly arrives. With only ~2% of overall sales, we are nowhere near that tipping point yet. That's why I don't feel good when other EVs and EV companies continue to fail. If the new EV makers fail, and the legacy manufacturers continue to produce vehicles on par with the Jaguar IPace and the Audi Etron, this movement will be over in less than 5 years. Tesla simply can't do it alone.

 

[EVNow]

Expect the Pickup to be debuted shown there.

I'd expect Tesla to unveil the pickup a few days before the LA show - but have the pickup showcased. May be even available for a ride.

 

[FreqFlyer]

LOL, right after they flooded the market with their Fool Cell vehicles, you mean ?
You know, the ones they spent 20 years and many billions of $$$ developing and sold only a few hundred so far...

They are still developing FC with the help of the Japanese government. Regarding EV competition, ignore at your own peril.

 

[Todd Burch]

Tug-O'-War going on for $315. I predict a close of $314.98.

On a related note: MMs have way too much power to manipulate TSLA.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

What makes you believe FCA will not need those Tesla credits after a merger?

PSA is not known for its EV program and will not be produding many of them in the near future (batteries anyone?). In fact, the situation could become worse, because not only does the new company need to compensate for the ICEs produced by FCA but also for those produced by PSA. And the average emissions per car for both companies has been deteriorating, as @Fact Checking has already demonstrated yesterday.

It's not that they will suddenly not need to do anything, but while FCA has nothing of note, PSA actually has a program with multiple BEVs and PHEVs on their way.

I'd also be very careful about judging companies on their emissions in 2018 or 2019, because they don't care about 2018 and 2019 as they're well under the current limit. So, they're all playing games to defer release and sales of more efficient vehicles until 2020 (especially their <50g/km cars) where they only have to count 95% of sales, and every <50g/km vehicle counts double.

 

[elasalle]

There’s a lot of speculation going on about the slow pace of deliveries to Europe this month. Some people think this is reflecting plummeting demand. But I’m starting to think we’re in for a classic Tesla surprise of sorts... Over in the More UK-bound Ships? forum, they are tracking cargo ships in real time, chomping at the bit waiting for their cars to arrive. And it turns out that there are an awful lot of Teslas being gently rocked by ocean waves right now.

Franco Mosotto is organizing this shipping data in an amazingly detailed spreadsheet: Tesla Carriers

Here’s the bottom line:

As of now there are 11 ships in transit with cargo or scheduled to be loaded by day 35 of q4.

Q1: 16 ships total.. 11th ship day 52
Q2: 13 ships total. 11th ship day 57
Q3: 12 ships total. 11th ship day 65

There’s quite a surge of shipments going on. I’m looking forward to reading the next production and delivery report!

cheers

Last Quarter US inventory was at a healthy clip, but looks like theres low inventory this quarter.
Given the high number of ships for ROW, it looks like logistics changed in Q3 to first service ROW to begin with. ~ cheers!!

 

[humbaba]

They are still developing FC with the help of the Japanese government. Regarding EV competition, ignore at your own peril.

Please don't misunderstand me. My derision of Toyota's EV program is based on it being the same as the other players: "as little as possible." I want there to be EV competition. I had hopes for the Taycan, but the reality of the reveal was underwhelming: it didn't measure up in capability to what Porsche had promised, while costing more than they had said it would.

Unfortunately, the legacy makers seem to have actually believed that they were in fact sleeping giants and that there was no way a silicon valley tech company upstart could actually make a car they couldn't best if they applied themselves. I think the Porsche engineers behind the Taycan are likely in a bit of shock at the plaid Model S.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

20 years? You really believe that? Everyone is working increasing battery density, everyone is working solid state batteries. Toyota will debut solid state batteries next summer in the transports they are building for the summer games in Japan. Competition does not stand still, especially as I stated in another post when profit is the motivator.

Toyota will have prototypes at the summer games, because they're the major Olympic sponsor and they have to have something related to batteries to show. Although still, they're going to persist pushing their "BEVs are only good for small, urban vehicles" mantra, and realizing that the Mirai is too ugly, will have a different look on an HFCV.

Expect more changes after the Tokyo Olympics.

 

[KarenRei]

I'd expect Tesla to unveil the pickup a few days before the LA show - but have the pickup showcased. May be even available for a ride.

Agreed. Tesla does not and will not dilute its new product announcements by launching them at auto shows. The pickup launch will be a huge event. If Tesla plans to show it at the LA Auto Show, then the launch should be before that point.

 

[KarenRei]

Toyota will have prototypes at the summer games, because they're the major Olympic sponsor and they have to have something related to batteries to show. Although still, they're going to persist pushing their "BEVs are only good for small, urban vehicles" mantra, and realizing that the Mirai is too ugly, will have a different look on an HFCV.

Expect more changes after the Tokyo Olympics.

"Being able to make solid state batteries" is not the same as "being able to mass produce practical and affordable solid state batteries". You can buy solid state batteries today. They suck.

Solid state really one of the most overhyped li-ion techs that I've seen in a long time. IMHO, we're closing in much faster on li-metal anodes in non-solid-state cells. Still a ways to go there too, but at least it's looking more promising.

(Air cathodes have seen some rather positive results recently for high-temperature cells, but still rather suck for normal room-temperature batteries. Li-air with yielding a LiO2 cathode product, along with a Li metal anode, is of course the Holy Grail of "li-ion" battery tech... although technically even energy-denser bonds exist, like LiF)

 

[FreqFlyer]

Toyota will have prototypes at the summer games, because they're the major Olympic sponsor and they have to have something related to batteries to show. Although still, they're going to persist pushing their "BEVs are only good for small, urban vehicles" mantra, and realizing that the Mirai is too ugly, will have a different look on an HFCV.

Expect more changes after the Tokyo Olympics.

Toyota is playing catch up in the EV arena. The Japan 3 see whats happening in China and the rest of the world in regards to emission standards and are planning accordingly. As I stated in another thread, Tesla is the only EV company of any note. Today if someone wants an EV they are going to Tesla.com.

No one here is thinking about the day in a couple of years when see Honda,Toyota ,VW EVs advertised on TV or splashed across Yahoo.com. In that environment when the market is flooded with just as capable and maybe cheaper EVs than Tesla. That is the threat to Tesla.

 

[KarenRei]

Tug-O'-War going on for $315. I predict a close of $314.98.

On a related note: MMs have way too much power to manipulate TSLA.

Wish the stock would do something :Þ Lower, I can re-leverage, and the people here looking to buy in can do so at a better price, and after our big runup, hardly anyone will be upset. Higher, I can de-leverage more, along with anyone else who wants to, and everyone can cheer about their paper gains.

Hovering in a narrow range? Well, I guess it's good for people who are selling short-term calls and puts

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I was telling a friend of mine the other day to think about where battery technology would be had EVs won the day in the early days of the automobile - or even had they gained momentum some time in the last 30 years. I truly believe we'd have a battery 1/4th the size of today's battery's powering cars for over 1000 miles.

The only real question is - is this finally the time for EVs to gain that momentum? I know a LOT of people here think so, but there are 10 times more people on the other side who believe it's just a passing fad (or an environmentalists movement that's being forced on everyone) - and trust me, the oil companies, dealership associations, and legacy automakers are doing their best to push any narrative they can to kill this momentum before the real tipping point truly arrives. With only ~2% of overall sales, we are nowhere near that tipping point yet. That's why I don't feel good when other EVs and EV companies continue to fail. If the new EV makers fail, and the legacy manufacturers continue to produce vehicles on par with the Jaguar IPace and the Audi Etron, this movement will be over in less than 5 years. Tesla simply can't do it alone.

And then there are those who are ready to go out and buy but don’t see a suitable vehicle available. Saw this first hand a few weeks ago. Fellow associated with one of our suppliers. He has been asking us about EV’s for awhile and had been in our leaf a few times. I recommended he test drive a model 3 which he and his wife did. They then took an SL Eplus Leaf for a drive as well as a few others like a bolt etc. Talked to him one day and he was very frustrated as the Nissan dealer said it would be 6 to 8 months before he can get an SL EPlus. I know this true because that’s how long it’s taking ours to arrive. (We ordered in August). I asked why not just order model 3 Tesla as he loved the test drive, it’s a great car and available in 2 months. Now get this. He said he had done lots of research on the car and figured he would need two cars just because one would always be broke down and service takes forever. I said that doesn’t sound right and he said a lot of it came from this board. The takeaway is that like it or not people are getting that impression. I recommended he talk to real model 3 owners to get a better idea of local service and that boards like Tesla motors club tend to focus on problems and not the good things. That’s why boards like this exist. Problem solving. He since told me he has ordered an Leaf SL Eplus. I told him to avoid the Nissan Leaf board at all costs. .

Soooo, yes we all know Tesla has service issues, but maybe a thread with service and ranger success stories can provide a little balance. Just a suggestion to the Tesla crowd. There must be some good reports.

Not a Tesla owner...but a huge fan.