Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Don TLR]

Once they have a good design I think they can just give a ton of money to Foxconn and a few years later they will have a few hundred thousand cars production rate:
https://www.cultofmac.com/298002/iphone-maker-foxconn-plans-roll-15k-electric-cars/

"The company has had partnership with Telsa to manufacture the touchscreen panels in their cars, but it’s also been looking into car battery development for a number of years too"

The one with the yellow border everyone complains about?

 

[Fred42]

Notes from Panasonic Q2 2020
View attachment 471715
View attachment 471717

View attachment 471716

"...increased sales of prismatic types and cylindrical types in North America factory... " Prismatic types?

 

[jerry33]

There were 2 things that struck me about these sales figures. First, the 4903 Model X sales is impressive. From what I can tell, that's 2nd most of any month in 2019. Would be awesome to see the X selling 50-60k per year. Maybe the price reduction a few months ago is finally having an impact.

More likely, the new Raven motors and increased range account for the majority of the increase. (No idea how much over 51% of the increase though).

 

[FreqFlyer]

In twenty years when Toyota, Honda, etc. might get around to matching Tesla, Tesla will be just as powerful as those companies--always assuming they still exist.

20 years? You really believe that? Everyone is working increasing battery density, everyone is working solid state batteries. Toyota will debut solid state batteries next summer in the transports they are building for the summer games in Japan. Competition does not stand still, especially as I stated in another post when profit is the motivator.

 

[Beltsbear]

My jaw is dropping here. Apple is not going to go into the auto-making business with Tesla and they certainly aren't going to do it on their own. It's like you don't understand that money alone cannot solve all the barriers to entry of auto manufacturing. Tesla won't have them and they can't do it alone. This much is as obvious as the fact that the sun will rise tomorrow. Maybe they will tie the knot with Toyota or Honda. Maybe GMC. Even then, the combined effort could not possibly offer credible competition to Tesla for (at a minimum) 5 years. More likely 8 or 9 years even if things went relatively well.

Your view of Apple is divorced from reality in my experience. Apple was never "cool and slick" to most people I knew. We always thought Apple was designed for idiots. Of course, it sold well, fortunately there are plenty of people who are challenged by anything more complicated than sending a tweet or tying their shoe! Android gave the power to the user. Users could make it as simple or complex as they desired. Apple dumbed everything down until you couldn't even make it do what you wanted or how you wanted it to do it. Then you slam MSFT products as being "nerdy" or "boring". Since when is innovation boring? Need I remind you that over the last 5 years MSFT stock has nearly *twice* the returns vs. AAPL stock? That's because Apple is relatively weak when it comes to true innovation. And you think Apple can design and manufacture a competitive EV? I think you're divorced from reality. Because that requires *massive* innovation.

Tesla has paid their dues when it comes to learning how to make cars. Apple has not. Why would Tesla *ever* partner with Apple?

There are a lot of personal insults up there.

The reason my many IT professionals prefer Apple is simple. For the most part, Apple's security has been way better then Android. That does not mean Apple has had zero issues, but statistically the gulf between them is pretty big. That may be because Apple has 'dumbed it down', or taken away options, but it is primarily because Apple provides over the air updates to their products. A very Tesla like idea. Sure, so does Android, but Android consistently leaves older products behind while they are still being used. I am talking about 18 month old products here. Where Apple tends to do 5 years of updates. To each his own.

 

[Christine69420]

Bottomline: Tesla spent several years to build the biggest output Li-ion battery factory on earth and they can still only make less than half a million EVs per year currently. They need to pump that production much higher to sell millions. The legacy car makers have not even started building their battery factories, there is no way they will have enough batteries for millions of EVs in a few years.

They don't plan on making the batteries themselves AFAIK:

Two Gigafactories building batteries planned in Europe. I have this info from a radio broadcast I randomly caught in my car. These are not Tesla factories. They call themselves Gigafactories.

Comparable in size to Tesla in Nevada newcomers Freyr in Norway and Northvolt in Sweden are the only two battery cell factories planned in Europe. There are other battery factories planned - but they assemble batteries from cells they buy from existing producers. These new factories will make the actual cells needed.

Northvolt has completed it's first equity capital raise for their factory in Skellefteå. Volkswagen and BMW are among their investors.

The Norwegian startup Freyr is planning to set up battery cell factories in the gigawatt range. The first plant should be located in Rana, Norway and greater plans for a “Nordic Battery Belt” with at least ten plants are in the pipeline.
Battery making startup Freyr plans belt of Gigafactories - electrive.com

Freyr have announced plans for a first factory in Mo i Rana. SINTEF partner announces plans to build a battery cell giga-factory in Norway - SINTEF

The local government in Mo i Rana has prioritized this project: Full sal da Freyr presenterte sine planer for batterifabrikk og vindmøllepark på Helgeland

Freyr secures €7.25 million investment from EIT InnoEnergy to build a 32 GWh battery cell production facility in Norway
FREYR secures €7.25 million investment from EIT InnoEnergy to build a 32 GWh battery cell production facility in Norway

In the Radio interview Freyr gründer Torstein Dale Sjøtveit - Wikipedia said that Northvolt and Freyr wasn't competitors in the traditional sense. The potential market for battery cells is so huge they will complement each other and develop a world class battery production environment in Scandinavia.

Torstein Dale Sjøtveit estimated the market to be 400 GWh or enough to supply 6 mill cars per year. And both factories plan to start with 16GWh capacity with room to expand.

 

[The Accountant]

There’s a lot of speculation going on about the slow pace of deliveries to Europe this month. Some people think this is reflecting plummeting demand. But I’m starting to think we’re in for a classic Tesla surprise of sorts... Over in the More UK-bound Ships? forum, they are tracking cargo ships in real time, chomping at the bit waiting for their cars to arrive. And it turns out that there are an awful lot of Teslas being gently rocked by ocean waves right now.

Franco Mosotto is organizing this shipping data in an amazingly detailed spreadsheet: Tesla Carriers

Here’s the bottom line:

As of now there are 11 ships in transit with cargo or scheduled to be loaded by day 35 of q4.

Q1: 16 ships total.. 11th ship day 52
Q2: 13 ships total. 11th ship day 57
Q3: 12 ships total. 11th ship day 65

There’s quite a surge of shipments going on. I’m looking forward to reading the next production and delivery report!

cheers

Yes - the information Franco Mosotto provides is excellent:
Of the 11 ships to depart/departed by day 35 of the quarter, we know the destination of 8 of them:

4 to EU
2 to CN
2 to KR

Can anyone estimate the number of vehicles per ship?

 

[MP3Mike]

I live in Europe, so I know how things work here. Getting permits will be the main obstacle, as Tesla has already experienced several times (Elon having to come over to get things fixed). Regulations are another one. Local governments can delay a building project if even one endangered toad is found, or some archeological remnants. Two years to start of production is actually optimistic. But I’d love to be proven wrong.

What do you think Tesla has been doing for the last year? They have been working with municipalities to find a location and work out permitting and regulation issues before they select and announce a location. (At least that is what I assume they have been doing.)

 

[pnungesser]

Yes. Like with the ground almost completely frozen to a depth of three feet. With several kinds of maple, birch, poplar, willow, spruce, pine and cedar.

You soak the soil, fertilizer (prefer to use horse manure) and roots. The roots freeze solid and in the spring everything the tree needs to get a good start is there when it comes out of its dormant stage.

The months of May-August tend to be too hot/too dry in the Northern Hemisphere - well, before climate change really took off. Now it can be a crap shoot. But in the ‘old’ days that was the rule of thumb; months with an ‘r’ is when you plant trees for best results.

Where I grew up, New Orleans, months with "r"s in them were the cooler months when it was considered safe to eat raw oysters. Our favorite oyster house wasn't even open May through August.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

With a merger, FCA might not need those Tesla credits.

What makes you believe FCA will not need those Tesla credits after a merger?

PSA is not known for its EV program and will not be produding many of them in the near future (batteries anyone?). In fact, the situation could become worse, because not only does the new company need to compensate for the ICEs produced by FCA but also for those produced by PSA. And the average emissions per car for both companies has been deteriorating, as @Fact Checking has already demonstrated yesterday.

 

[jerry33]

20 years? You really believe that? Everyone is working increasing battery density, everyone is working solid state batteries. Toyota will debut solid state batteries next summer in the transports they are building for the summer games in Japan. Competition does not stand still, especially as I stated in another post when profit is the motivator.

With batteries "working on" means at least ten years before initial commercialization, much longer before they go in vehicles.

 

[Unpilot]

Green....just wanted to be first.


Yes I am obsessed.

 

[pnungesser]

Yes - the information Franco Mosotto provides is excellent:
Of the 11 ships to depart/departed by day 35 of the quarter, we know the destination of 8 of them:

4 to EU
2 to CN
2 to KR

Can anyone estimate the number of vehicles per ship?

View attachment 471741

I estimate seven departed and one just arrived today. What I find interesting is that there is almost no time between ships departing and new ships arriving. In the past it seems that pier 80 would be vacant for several days between ships. The G. Cosmos departed for the canal around midnight and the next ship, G. Prime was moored this morning, about 6 hours later. Tesla seems to have made a lot of progress on their shipping logistics.

 

[Unpilot]

Tesla seems to have made a lot of progress

This is what they do best. It is THE moat.
It's also what the Adam J's of the world don't/can't/won't see.

It's like giving Usain Bolt a head start on the 100 meter dash....and then slowly try and catch up.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Hm, last time I waited for the MMD to purchase stock, it never had one and instead went up $3. I know it's peanuts to the rest of you, but soon-to-be-my 4 new stocks is a lot for me.
Mod: numerology deleted. --ggr

 

[JustMe]

Yes - the information Franco Mosotto provides is excellent:
Of the 11 ships to depart/departed by day 35 of the quarter, we know the destination of 8 of them:

4 to EU
2 to CN
2 to KR

Can anyone estimate the number of vehicles per ship?

View attachment 471741

Actually, yes - these folks gauge the number of vehicles on each ship by how long it takes to load them. They load the ships at a rate of roughly 1,000 cars per day and the 8 ships that have been loaded so far took a total of about 22 days to load. That’s 22 days of continuous loading of vehicles in just one month. The Glovis Cosmos just departed for Europe after a healthy 3+ days of loading.

 

[scaesare]

All this talk about profitability and the coming competition got me thinking. One question...

Do we know for sure that any of the other EV manufacturers are actually turning a profit off the sale of their EVs? If they are what are their margins? Until they can demonstrate profitability from EVs then they are not in any way sustainable and could not represent any significant shift away from the status quo ICE focused product line up.

A compliance car, or in this case, an "improve my image to the public" car is meaningless if it does not represent an opportunity to make money. So...have any of the others demonstrated profitability with their EVs? Leaf, Bolt, iPace, Taycan, Zoe, eTron? Any of these making money? Because if they are not then they are in no way competition for Tesla because they are not sustainable in their product lines as the public's demand for EVs rises.

Thoughts?

Dan

Well, you asked about "for sure", so I'll have to say that I don't know for sure... but I'm of the opinion that none of the compelling models (i.e. med-high range, non-weirdmobiles, etc..) from any significant manufacturers are. There might be somebody selling a 40-mile range niche micro-EV for an exorbitant price in inconsequential numbers that is managing profit.

But I'd guess that even the $150K Taycan might not be much more than break even. I think the rest of the big auto manufacturers take a loss on them, and/or their suppliers do as in the case of LG supplying cells for the Bolt at low cost to get the business on the rest of the car...

 

[pyromatter]

 

[FreqFlyer]

Tesla to attend 2019 LA Auto Show, will offer test drives

"Tesla will be making its presence known at the upcoming 2019 Los Angeles Auto Show, with the electric car maker scheduled to offer test drives for its lineup of vehicles to interested participants of the event. The test drive sessions have been formally listed on the LA Auto Show’s official website.

The LA Auto Show is an event that has been graced by Tesla over the years, though the company’s previous efforts have been far more understated. Last year, for example, Tesla’s booth at the Los Angeles-based event was very simple, showcasing the company’s lineup of vehicles and its energy products. The same was true for Tesla’s 2017 LA Auto Show booth."

Expect the Pickup to be debuted shown there.

 

[Artful Dodger]

From the BBC (hence the emphasis on Vauxhall in the headline).

Vauxhall fears after car giants announce merger

PSA own Opel/Vauxhall and has Peugeot and Opel/Vauxhall BEVs coming.
With a merger, FCA might not need those Tesla credits.

Lol, not even TESLA can produce enough EVs in 2020-21 to mitigate FCA's emissions improvement needs. And PSA had EVEN HIGHER fleet average CO2 emissions in 2018 (posted here yesterday). They're both in the hurt locker, and together they will still max out Tesla's ability to supply zero-emissions vehicles in the EuroZone.

Their real hope for obtaining sufficient carbon offsets lies with a sucessful and rapid GF4 rampup. Then they need to hope like hell for technology transfer from an overly-generous (even charitable) Tesla board.

Otherwise, its 'la mort' for Groupe PSA and 'arrivederci' for FCA. They will be fortunate to survive the next 10 years. They face at least as much risk as Tesla did over the last 10 years, but more time pressure to scale up production. And they have to remain solvent while killing off their own ICE business.

I give them 1 chance in 3.