Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Doggydogworld]

They claim that they will make a profit with this refresh. We'll see if that is true.

They claim positive gross margin by Q4. That's still a long way from a net profit. As for the updates, they're mostly focused on COGS. I don't see much that helps their competitive position. Their problem is the same as the US legacies, Scaringe can't sell enough to achieve production economies. You need 100k+/year of a single model, or failing that 100k+ spread across a couple of closely related sister cars. Even if you combine R1T and R1S it's only a fraction of that.

 

[MP3Mike]

As for the updates, they're mostly focused on COGS.

I think it is interesting that a lot of the changes are almost a direct copy of what Tesla has done in the changes for COGS. (Heat pump with scavenging across everything, zonal ECUs instead of ECUs everywhere, oil cooled motors, etc. Even their ADAS/Entertainment computer are a sandwich with liquid cooling in the middle.)

I wonder if they went from dual 12v lead acid batteries to a single lithium-ion one...

I would be most interested in seeing the tear-down of the dash to see how they eliminated that whole harness, and what is in its place...

 

[MC3OZ]

Speaking of model refreshes, what’s everyone’s thoughts on the Rivian model refreshes announced today in relation to CyberTruck competition?

The dual motor R1S/T with 420 mile range (vs the dual motor CT being 340m), and the max performance model with faster acceleration (2.5s) than the CyberBeast are to be applauded in my book.

Good for the mission.

The CT and Rivian are sufficiently different to appeal to a wide range of buyers.

I don't see any real problem with CT demand. different customers will have different preferences.

 

[Singuy]

Found the reason why people are not buying Teslas for Taxi/uber purposes in Beijing but are buying EVs from Chinese brands.

The warranty on the battery for some of these chinese made EVs are 10 years, 600k km (or 400k miles). This is like 4x of a Tesla. Man these EV companies are so going under or magical money are keeping them afloat by the CCP.

 

[Musskiah]

All it takes is one experince like this with FSD to become deaf to the naysayers. I can't even hear them anymore. @DarkandStormy who? Tesla owner thanks FSD (Supervised) 12.3.6 for avoiding potential collision

 

[SOULPEDL]

All it takes is one experince like this with FSD to become deaf to the naysayers. I can't even hear them anymore. @DarkandStormy who? Tesla owner thanks FSD (Supervised) 12.3.6 for avoiding potential collision

And he’s back

So I would have freaked out not knowing exactly where that other truck and boat was located. Eyes in back, gotta love that.

 

[JusRelax]

I guess 0.99% worked so well for Model Y, that now they are doing 1.99% for Model RWD and LR:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798771962208194627

Note that this is a LOAN specialty deal, not a LEASE deal. The Model Y (nor any other Tesla models) does not have a LOAN deal. I think this is a significant difference, considering there have been several complaints about the Tesla lease deals, saying that they're not very effective because they don't provide the lessee with the option to buy the vehicle at the end of the lease.

Hopefully, anyone that was deterred from leasing a Tesla due to that caveat will note the diference in this loan deal and jump on it.

 

[insaneoctane]

Found the reason why people are not buying Teslas for Taxi/uber purposes in Beijing but are buying EVs from Chinese brands.

The warranty on the battery for some of these chinese made EVs are 10 years, 600k km (or 400k miles). This is like 4x of a Tesla. Man these EV companies are so going under or magical money are keeping them afloat by the CCP.

They are buying market share subsidized by government.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Model Y refresh will be a bit more complicated than the model 3 was, due to the fact that Europe Model Y is supplied by both Shanghai & Germany factories, so both of them will need to transition at roughly the same time (ideally Shanghai a bit earlier given long shipping time to EU).

For Left-Hand-Drive (LHD) Europe, I've lost track of which Model Ys come from China (if at all now) and which are Berlin-built.

For those not already aware, some (maybe all) Model Ys for UK will be made in Berlin. I'm not sure which other Right-Hand Drive markets will be served by Berlin - but India and other RHD European markets could be supplied. RHD European markets include Ireland now, perhaps Cyprus, Malta now or in the future.

Other unserved or underserved RHD markets close to Europe include African ones (notably South Africa) and Caribbean nations. Further afield ones include Japan, Australia & New Zealand in case of trade problems. BTW, Australia seeing huge Tesla sales, much more than more populous European countries.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798641223990947915

Spoiler: text for indexing/search

Tesla Owners UK @TeslaOwnersUK
Berlin VINs have started to be assigned to UK orders of @teslaeurope Model Y.

The first batch of RHD Berlin cars are on their way, in Midnight Cherry Red.

We have confirmed MCR Berlin VINs only at this time.
10:00 AM · Jun 6, 2024 6,455 Views

 

[UkNorthampton]

As soon as the insurance companies gets it. They cannot forbid us - they don't need to. They will make it expensive to drive yourself.

Absolutely agree.

Black boxes (telematics, acceleration, braking, speed, time of day etc) were unknown in the UK, then became an option for younger drivers, then became very common for younger drivers (essential I was told by some - I can't confirm) and a few months ago I heard about adults with many years driving getting Black boxes for cheaper insurance.

Tesla uses telematics in some jurisdictions.

Insurance will drive adoption of autonomous driving, especially if Tesla have an offering in the jurisdiction.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I hadn't seen this posted. Tesla / other Musk companies synergies. I do wonder if SpaceX will need inference computers at some point, same for even Neuralink or xAi (Hardware 4 possibly).

Energy costs seem to be one of the most important metrics for chip buying, so presumably Tesla are competitive for inference.

Possibility of eventually selling inference compute or devices to others. I seem to remember that Tesla's AI datacaentres will include 4000 Hardware 4 as well as Nvidia & Dojo

Spoiler: text for search/indexing

Elon Musk @elonmusk
Worth mentioning that switching to ultra hard, cold-rolled stainless steel for Starship is what led me to make Cybertruck out of it too
6:17 AM · Jun 7, 2024 573.7K Views

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798947378109796435

 

[aubreymcfato]

I’m not deep enough in the weeds on internal European Tesla logistics, but is there a wave effect within Europe?

eg: are Germany produced model Ys sent across the continent in the first 2 months of quarter, while German deliveries are saved for the last month of the quarter since they are close to the factory?

I am aware that Europe went into the quarter with a large amount of inventory, so not sure my above query would be that plausible, but just raising it as a possibility for low Germany sales.

It's definitely possible, but I won't count on it. It's better to be surprised at the end of June than the contrary

 

[cliff harris]

For Left-Hand-Drive (LHD) Europe, I've lost track of which Model Ys come from China (if at all now) and which are Berlin-built.

For those not already aware, some (maybe all) Model Ys for UK will be made in Berlin. I'm not sure which other Right-Hand Drive markets will be served by Berlin - but India and other RHD European markets could be supplied. RHD European markets include Ireland now, perhaps Cyprus, Malta now or in the future.

Other unserved or underserved RHD markets close to Europe include African ones (notably South Africa) and Caribbean nations. Further afield ones include Japan, Australia & New Zealand in case of trade problems. BTW, Australia seeing huge Tesla sales, much more than more populous European countries.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798641223990947915

Spoiler: text for indexing/search

Tesla Owners UK @TeslaOwnersUK
Berlin VINs have started to be assigned to UK orders of @teslaeurope Model Y.

The first batch of RHD Berlin cars are on their way, in Midnight Cherry Red.

We have confirmed MCR Berlin VINs only at this time.
10:00 AM · Jun 6, 2024 6,455 Views

I got my UK model Y from shanghai and am VERY happy with the build quality. But as an investor, swapping a boat from china to a train from Berlin is going to save Tesla some nice cash on UK sales.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I got my UK model Y from shanghai and am VERY happy with the build quality. But as an investor, swapping a boat from china to a train from Berlin is going to save Tesla some nice cash on UK sales.

Also 5% import tax won't be paid (might be offset by higher Berlin costs) and more shipping alternatives including Eurotunnel Freight (there might be some restrictions I'm not aware of).

UK ports are again not in a great way, so bypassing Southampton might be helpful.

 

[alexxs88]

Pre-emptive note: I'm not trying to debate, but just to provide some food for thought. Also, I don't know the full spectrum of what is available for other OEMs.

That being said, FSD has a few obvious advantages:

1. Tesla puts the hardware, with at least the specific safety features, on all of their cars. Do any other manufacturers do that? Or do they all have various trim packages or options, with the lowest end prividing zero or minimal driver-assist features beyond whatever is government mandated?
2. That also means, even if you don't pay for FSD up front, you at least have the option of adding capabilities in the future....obviously, you can't add any active safety features to a car from another OEM if you didn't get the hardware in the first place.
3. Tesla has committed to regular OTA software updates on the existing fleet to significantly enhance capabilities. Many other manufacturers just don't upgrade the software much at all, and it often still requires a trip to the dealer in the rare cases that they do. They want to sell you next year's model...so if the 2025 model has the exact same hardware but better software than the 2024 model, they don't usually provide much in the way of an upgrade path for the 2024's. There have even been examples where the previous year's software was equally functional but just annoyed the driver more -- so, many drivers would disable certain features and warnings and just not use them, and as a result, certain safety and accident-avoidance capabilities might not even be active by the time the driver gets into a situation where an accident might have been prevented. Those annoyances might be removed on the next year's model...but not fixed on the existing cars.

1. Short answer is "yes". At least in the EU, automatic braking and lane keeping are mandated by regulations and are present on all cars.

3. There's little value to be added to the safety aspect with OTA updates. if you look at FSD updates, there's an increase in the breadth of situations it can handle supervised and how it deals with them, but it's hard to argue that's safer than a human doing it on their own with the accident prevention features present on every car. And I'm sure if that weren't true, Tesla would present the data to show that cars on FSD have fewer / less severe accidents than when not.

My overall point is that the majority of the safety features hidden inside FSD are actually really easy to implement, if not already mandated by regulations. The huge value of FSD is the time the driver saves when it becomes unsupervised, not from any meaningful safety improvements. And the latter has an easy proof: why doesn't Tesla's own insurance offer orders of magnitude cheaper rates? They could easily detect how many miles are being travelled on FSD as a proportion of total miles and then charge an insurance premium an order of magnitude lower. It would also severely increase FSD adoption rate, since the 99$/month price would be offset by the insurance premium saved.

As an example, let's say the insurance is 200$/month now. If FSD makes it 10x less likely to have a crash and 50% of my miles are driven on FSD, then the maths say they could charge 110$.

 

[Maarten]

Just a helpful thought for all people who are completely fed up with the TSLA price movement now and in the past years.
We have all seen it coming down from around the USD 400 price tag.
Practically the whole stock market has been booming recently and TSLA has not.
The shorting of TSLA, as described quite clearly by @Papafox is one of the big, if not biggest, factors that is holding down its price.
The purpose is earning money by those who are shorting it, for sure.

But I think there is another strategy behind it all, and that is easily playing on our emotions, with a purpose.
To Make TSLA shareholders Sell TSLA.
And it is working.
A lot of us are thinking: should have sold, should have bought NVDA, should have...
And for quite a few owners that comes into reality: they actually do sell.
However just look at how Tesla is executing, innovating relentlessly, a lot of posts here in this thread describing it, I am not going to repeat it.

Don’t be put off by whats happening with TSLA’s price tag.
In my opinion it’s deliberately done for a reason and that is why you, maybe oddly, should be happy that it is being done.
Because to me it is obvious that that reason is EXACTLY why I should hold on to my TSLA shares.

 

[Maarten]

By the way: voted positively on all of the director’s proposal for the shareholders.
Whatever one's thoughts are of Elon: in my opinion the proposal is best for Tesla and just as important: A Deal Is A Deal.

 

[ShareLofty]

FYI. Rumor: MY refresh in July. Not bad if true.

Please stop spreading FUD. You’re only hurting Teslas ability to sell the current MY

 

[CitizenKane]

Just a helpful thought for all people who are completely fed up with the TSLA price movement now and in the past years.
We have all seen it coming down from around the USD 400 price tag.
Practically the whole stock market has been booming recently and TSLA has not.
The shorting of TSLA, as described quite clearly by @Papafox is one of the big, if not biggest, factors that is holding down its price.
The purpose is earning money by those who are shorting it, for sure.

But I think there is another strategy behind it all, and that is easily playing on our emotions, with a purpose.
To Make TSLA shareholders Sell TSLA.
And it is working.
A lot of us are thinking: should have sold, should have bought NVDA, should have...
And for quite a few owners that comes into reality: they actually do sell.
However just look at how Tesla is executing, innovating relentlessly, a lot of posts here in this thread describing it, I am not going to repeat it.

Don’t be put off by whats happening with TSLA’s price tag.
In my opinion it’s deliberately done for a reason and that is why you, maybe oddly, should be happy that it is being done.
Because to me it is obvious that that reason is EXACTLY why I should hold on to my TSLA shares.

Occam's razor would instead suggest it is because Tesla has failed to deliver on lofty hopes of 50% CAGR, coupled with a rather obscurely communicated strategy and seemingly reckless management decisions.

 

[Mengy]

Just a helpful thought for all people who are completely fed up with the TSLA price movement now and in the past years.
We have all seen it coming down from around the USD 400 price tag.
Practically the whole stock market has been booming recently and TSLA has not.
The shorting of TSLA, as described quite clearly by @Papafox is one of the big, if not biggest, factors that is holding down its price.
The purpose is earning money by those who are shorting it, for sure.

But I think there is another strategy behind it all, and that is easily playing on our emotions, with a purpose.
To Make TSLA shareholders Sell TSLA.
And it is working.
A lot of us are thinking: should have sold, should have bought NVDA, should have...
And for quite a few owners that comes into reality: they actually do sell.
However just look at how Tesla is executing, innovating relentlessly, a lot of posts here in this thread describing it, I am not going to repeat it.

Don’t be put off by whats happening with TSLA’s price tag.
In my opinion it’s deliberately done for a reason and that is why you, maybe oddly, should be happy that it is being done.
Because to me it is obvious that that reason is EXACTLY why I should hold on to my TSLA shares.

This is a good perspective, but I do think we also need to acknowledge that much of TSLA's stagnation has been due to some other factors as well:

- Cutting back / leveling auto production (for now).
- Cutting auto prices thereby reducing margins.
- Reducing production growth guidance.

While I do believe the short action has kept TSLA subdued, I think the largest factor has been the growth story grinding to a halt, which much of the TSLA future valuation was tied to. In time things like Megapacks, autonomy, and Optimus will rekindle the growth story, and hopefully auto production begins ramping up again too, but until any of those happen TSLA will likely remain underwhelming.