Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

How do people watch anything EV related on 'top gear'? There is no gear in any real EV. In a sense top gear has to at least change its name to survive in the EV future.

I have to point out that unless it's a direct drive from the motor to the wheels all EV's do in fact have gears. The Tesla transaxle has a number of gears in it.

 

[KarenRei]

And then there are those who are ready to go out and buy but don’t see a suitable vehicle available. Saw this first hand a few weeks ago. Fellow associated with one of our suppliers. He has been asking us about EV’s for awhile and had been in our leaf a few times. I recommended he test drive a model 3 which he and his wife did. They then took an SL Eplus Leaf for a drive as well as a few others like a bolt etc. Talked to him one day and he was very frustrated as the Nissan dealer said it would be 6 to 8 months before he can get an SL EPlus. I know this true because that’s how long it’s taking ours to arrive. (We ordered in August). I asked why not just order model 3 Tesla as he loved the test drive, it’s a great car and available in 2 months. Now get this. He said he had done lots of research on the car and figured he would need two cars just because one would always be broke down and service takes forever. I said that doesn’t sound right and he said a lot of it came from this board. The takeaway is that like it or not people are getting that impression. I recommended he talk to real model 3 owners to get a better idea of local service and that boards like Tesla motors club tend to focus on problems and not the good things. That’s why boards like this exist. Problem solving. He since told me he has ordered an Leaf SL Eplus. I told him to avoid the Nissan Leaf board at all costs. .

Soooo, yes we all know Tesla has service issues, but maybe a thread with service and ranger success stories can provide a little balance. Just a suggestion to the Tesla crowd. There must be some good reports.

Not a Tesla owner...but a huge fan.

People like this who don't understand the difference between anecdotes and data need to be pointed to the Bloomberg survey.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Can you guys help me out with this question that keeps plaguing me. So, there are 2 predominant thoughts on climate change. First, there is the belief that the science on man-made climate change is obvious and we need to take immediate action to fix the damage we've done. The 2nd train of thought is that the whole thing is a hoax and there have always been cycles of cooling and heating. And strangely, these 2 train of thoughts are split almost 50-50 among Americans. But, my question is not about climate change, or why people believe what they believe. We all know the facts and the arguments.

What I do want to know is this. Those who don't believe in climate change ride around in big SUVs and trucks (or whatever particular vehicle they chose to drive). They live by their creed. They only consider the vehicle when making a choice - the environment has no impact on their decision. However, on the other side, people are VERY passionate about the climate and protecting it. So much so that I see on here where poster's kids are buying trees with their lawn cutting proceeds.

So that leads me to the question. In America, we have over 200 million adults. Since the poverty rate is around 14%, that leaves about 172 million adult Americans who could possibly afford an EV. If we split that number into 2, that leaves us with 86 million adults not living in poverty that believe in climate change. Yet, EVs make up about ~2% of car sales in America. Tesla has literally sold around 500,000 cars in the U.S. in its entire existence.

So, please tell me, if people are SURE that climate change is real, and they believe that emissions are causing so many issues, WHY in the heck do they still chose to drive around in an ICEV? I mean, we're talking 87 MILLION PEOPLE!! Do you realize how much impact 87 million people could have? If they can't afford a $35k Tesla, surely they can afford a $15k used Leaf.

People simply can't make ANY sacrifice for what they believe in. I can almost guarantee you those people riding around in Camrys and Accords live in houses way bigger than they need and spend a ton of money going out to eat every month. Moving to a Model 3 would be so easy.

Or is it possible that not as many people truly believe in climate change as we think? One or the other is true, because otherwise EVs would be almost 50% of sales in the U.S.

 

[TradingInvest]

Toyota has been trying to make solid state batteries work for vehicles, but they aren't doing any EVs unless they are compelled to: their plans are for "electrified" cars -- that is hybrid, hydrogen and, maybe, EV, where regulators force them to. They have made it abundantly clear that they are not interested in EVs, presumably because that lowers maintenance revenue.

When it comes to solid state there are a lot of interested parties researching it. As they should. But the hype has been hot and hard for years and shows no signs of letting up. Just as a recent example [2]:


"could be ready within a few years" -- yeah, sell $TSLA because in a few years there could be an improvement in battery technology. Of course, next year Tesla is planning on talking about their battery developments, but that isn't important.

As for summer games, I guess you are referring to this [1]:

Wow. "if possible" "we would like". Maybe someone who is more knowledgeable about Japanese culture can help me, but to a westerner those weasel words completely undermine the statement and suggest a more accurate/honest statement would read, "After nearly ten years of minimal results from research into solid state batteries we hope to demonstrate a proof-of-concept low capacity battery for a hybrid."

So Toyota, notorious for resisting any EV production is finally talking about making some. For China (and Europe). Because they have to. [3]


So Toyota will start making these solid state battery powered EVs next year? The same year they plan on revealing their first public demo of a solid state battery? Or perhaps this has to do with the Toyota/Panasonic partnership and nothing to do with a not-yet-ready-for-use-in-an-EV solid state battery? [4]



I seem to have lost the links I had for tracking actual progress on solid state batteries, but to give an idea about how difficult they are to develop: [5]


Toyota (and many others) have been researching solid state for many years now. Maybe a breakthrough against the fundamental constraints that prevent them being useful for EVs has been made. Maybe. In the meantime, Toyota's 10-year plan is expiring and they have to show something for it. But it appears that the EVs they are forced to make will be powered by lithium-ion prismatic cells made by Panasonic.

1) Toyota accelerates target for EV with solid-state battery to 2020

2) Solid-State Batteries Could Power Electric Vehicle Breakthrough

3) New Solid-State Battery Developed for Lexus Electric Vehicles

4) Toyota and Panasonic confirm wide-ranging new battery partnership for electric vehicles - Electrek

5) Who Will Win the Race for an EV Solid-State Battery?

EV battery pack cost has been dropping 21% per year in the past 8 years. We (the world) have been able to maintain this pace due to three factors: R&D, scale and improved energy density. I expect those three factors will continue to help. At this rate Tesla will soon reach $5k for batteries, $6~7k for the whole pack.

When the battery pack costs $30k, there is a high risk of breakthrough from competition. What if another company brings out a new battery, the whole pack only costs $10k?

When the pack cost keeps going down, the risk of competition also goes down. Even if another company brings out a battery that's slightly cheaper than $5k, it won't be a huge competition risk. Can the competitor drop it to $2k? unlikely. For a competitor to find a new form of battery that's significantly better and cheaper than Tesla's batteries, they need to first find a new battery (solid state, etc.), they need to make sure it can be recharged quickly, it can last at least 1000 cycles without too much degradation, it's easy to produce, it can supply high current, low internal resistance, the material and production cost is competitive. Then test in vehicles, ramp production. I guess it would be at least another 8~10 years, if them manage to get all the things right. By then Tesla's batteries are so good and so cheap, the competitors will have to find the next battery breakthrough. So I don't worry about batteries at this point. The real competition is in FSD software.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

People like this who don't understand the difference between anecdotes and data need to be pointed to the Bloomberg survey.

Karen I haven’t seen it. If you post it I’ll send it to him.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

And then there are those who are ready to go out and buy but don’t see a suitable vehicle available. Saw this first hand a few weeks ago. Fellow associated with one of our suppliers. He has been asking us about EV’s for awhile and had been in our leaf a few times. I recommended he test drive a model 3 which he and his wife did. They then took an SL Eplus Leaf for a drive as well as a few others like a bolt etc. Talked to him one day and he was very frustrated as the Nissan dealer said it would be 6 to 8 months before he can get an SL EPlus. I know this true because that’s how long it’s taking ours to arrive. (We ordered in August). I asked why not just order model 3 Tesla as he loved the test drive, it’s a great car and available in 2 months. Now get this. He said he had done lots of research on the car and figured he would need two cars just because one would always be broke down and service takes forever. I said that doesn’t sound right and he said a lot of it came from this board. The takeaway is that like it or not people are getting that impression. I recommended he talk to real model 3 owners to get a better idea of local service and that boards like Tesla motors club tend to focus on problems and not the good things. That’s why boards like this exist. Problem solving. He since told me he has ordered an Leaf SL Eplus. I told him to avoid the Nissan Leaf board at all costs. .

Soooo, yes we all know Tesla has service issues, but maybe a thread with service and ranger success stories can provide a little balance. Just a suggestion to the Tesla crowd. There must be some good reports.

Not a Tesla owner...but a huge fan.

This story is typical. If someone is going to buy a Kia Sorento, they don't go scour the Kia forums to see how reliable the Sorento is or if people are having issues. However, because Tesla is a new car company and also happen to make electric cars, people are unsure. So they do a ton more research. What they don't understand is that these negative stories exist for every car manufacturer. People don't go on forums and tell how great their service was or how well their car has held up (ie, no or few repairs). This is true of not only cars, but any product. But, it affects Tesla much more because of the heightened worry in buying a car from an unknown car maker.

If you go over to the X, S, or 3 forums on TMC (which I do regularly), you would be mighty tempted to sell your shares and run. There are some nightmares over there. But again, you have to keep it in perspective. People with success stories think that's the norm and see no reason to post it.

 

[KarenRei]

Karen I haven’t seen it. If you post it I’ll send it to him.

Here:
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

If he's paywalled, here's a basic summary:
Nafnlaus on Twitter

A section specifically on service (and charging) is due out momentarily.

 

[AMN]

It's not that they will suddenly not need to do anything, but while FCA has nothing of note, PSA actually has a program with multiple BEVs and PHEVs on their way.

I'd also be very careful about judging companies on their emissions in 2018 or 2019, because they don't care about 2018 and 2019 as they're well under the current limit. So, they're all playing games to defer release and sales of more efficient vehicles until 2020 (especially their <50g/km cars) where they only have to count 95% of sales, and every <50g/km vehicle counts double.

The conversation about EU credits has been flipped to insinuate that Tesla needs this credits revenue. Musk, his CFO and Board Chair all stated that Tesla doesn't rely on these credits and doesn't use them in any of their financial models.

It's FCA that NEEDS those credits. If FCA goes South, I am sure Tesla will find a new buyer. But again, this is just a cherry on top of their core business.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think the Porsche engineers behind the Taycan are likely in a bit of shock at the plaid Model S.

There's some more SHOCK** for Porsche engineers today with the Blue Plaid prototype hot lapping at the Nürburgring:

TESLA MODEL S PLAID SPIED TESTING ON THE NURBURGRING | Carspotter Jeroen | 31 Oct 2019

Some hot takes for the video:

• JEBUS! That sucker is FAST!!
• the sound at full tilt is AMAZING! Turbine-like whoosh of endless POWER!!
• 1st ever vid of a Plaid S at full speed** down the back straight Döttinger Höhe
• Anyone with Google Earth and a Video Editor (to obtain distance/time) want to estimate the Plaid S top speed demonstrated in this video?

As always, the Plaid Model S has achingly beautiful good looks, with punch to match. Like a Russian spy in a blue satin dress and spike heels, she'll have your heart and eat it too.

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

What did they say they are they gonna do for us S and X owners with MCU upgrade?

Ask not what the effort to decarbonize the world can do for you, but ask what can you do for the effort to decarbonize the world.

 

[AMN]

There's some more SHOCK** for Porsche posted today of the Blue Plaid prototype hot lapping at the Nürburgring :

TESLA MODEL S PLAID SPIED TESTING ON THE NURBURGRING | Carspotter Jeroen

Some hot takes from the video:

• JEBUS! That sucker is FAST!!
• the sound a full tilt is AMAZING! turbine-like whoosh of endless POWER!!
• 1st ever vid of a Plaid S at full speed** down the back straight Döttinger Höhe
• Anyone with Google Earth and a Video Editor (to obtain distance/time) want to estimate the Plaid S top speed demonstrated in this video?

As always, the Plaid Model S has achingly beautiful good looks, with punch to match. Like a Russian spy in a blue satin dress and spike heels, she'll have your heart and eat it too.

Cheers!

I haven't owned a Model S since 2016. I will buy a tri-motor Model S as soon as they are available to order. Will trade a V12 Ferrari for it.

 

[humbaba]

There's some more SHOCK** for Porsche posted today of the Blue Plaid prototype hot lapping at the Nürburgring :

TESLA MODEL S PLAID SPIED TESTING ON THE NURBURGRING | Carspotter Jeroen

Some hot takes from the video:

• JEBUS! That sucker is FAST!!
• the sound a full tilt is AMAZING! turbine-like whoosh of endless POWER!!
• 1st ever vid of a Plaid S at full speed** down the back straight Döttinger Höhe
• Anyone with Google Earth and a Video Editor (to obtain distance/time) want to estimate the Plaid S top speed demonstrated in this video?

As always, the Plaid Model S has achingly beautiful good looks, with punch to match. Like a Russian spy in a blue satin dress and spike heels, she'll have your heart and eat it too.

Cheers!

I normally watch with sound off, but your comment made me turn it on. Holy cow!

 

[LJS22]

Why do we still have people bringing up Tesla-Apple partnership/buy out subject? It’s as tired an argument as Model S is getting an interior refresh/2170 batteries any day now.

I think Apple people want Elon as their CEO. He’s the only one innovating these days. Everyone else is releasing sequels

 

[TradingInvest]

Here:
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

If he's paywalled, here's a basic summary:
Nafnlaus on Twitter

A section specifically on service (and charging) is due out momentarily.

If we take a closer look of the data, for every 100 new cars, there are one major issue in drivetrain/brake/chassis, one major issue with electronics, and one major issue with interior. I think Tesla is pushing to get the best initial quality in the industry.

 

[Zaxxon]

Can you guys help me out with this question that keeps plaguing me.

...

So that leads me to the question. In America, we have over 200 million adults. Since the poverty rate is around 14%, that leaves about 172 million adult Americans who could possibly afford an EV. If we split that number into 2, that leaves us with 86 million adults not living in poverty that believe in climate change. Yet, EVs make up about ~2% of car sales in America. Tesla has literally sold around 500,000 cars in the U.S. in its entire existence.

...

So, please tell me, if people are SURE that climate change is real, and they believe that emissions are causing so many issues, WHY in the heck do they still chose to drive around in an ICEV? I mean, we're talking 87 MILLION PEOPLE!! Do you realize how much impact 87 million people could have? If they can't afford a $35k Tesla, surely they can afford a $15k used Leaf.

However, because Tesla is a new car company and also happen to make electric cars, people are unsure. So they do a ton more research. What they don't understand is that these negative stories exist for every car manufacturer. People don't go on forums and tell how great their service was or how well their car has held up (ie, no or few repairs). This is true of not only cars, but any product. But, it affects Tesla much more because of the heightened worry in buying a car from an unknown car maker.

I think it's far simpler than that. The split on 'believing in' climate change as a problem caused by humans vs not may be a fairly even split in the US (it's actually tipped well beyond 50/50 in recent years, I believe), but the percentage of 'believers' who are willing to actually make changes to their lifestyle is far, far lower. That's our problem (and is an analog to several of the US's other issues--voter turnout, etc).

 

[Nocturnal]

Hearing the CEO of FIAT say that they might just buy EV platforms from Tesla is really interesting news, particularly with the PSA merger. That would be the world's 4th largest auto maker and one that is very far behind on emissions and EV tech.

I think it's far simpler than that. The split on 'believing in' climate change as a problem caused by humans vs not may be a fairly even split in the US (it's actually tipped well beyond 50/50 in recent years, I believe), but the percentage of 'believers' who are willing to actually make changes to their lifestyle is far, far lower. That's our problem (and is an analog to several of the US's other issues--voter turnout, etc).

Yes and no. For sure many people don't walk the walk, but it's also not realistic to think that consumers can really make more than a small dent. That said, they absolutely should be pushing politicians to move forward. Personally, I'm not voting for anyone who doesn't have a solid plan to address this.

On the science denier side (sorry, not sorry), they are now split between the people who think that the planet is NOT warming, and those who admit it is but that we aren't impacting it. That's an improvement at least.

 

[lklundin]

Actually, yes - these folks gauge the number of vehicles on each ship by how long it takes to load them. They load the ships at a rate of roughly 1,000 cars per day and the 8 ships that have been loaded so far took a total of about 22 days to load.

I award an 'Informative' vote to the first poster of a photo showing Tesla saving on man power by having the Teslas drive on to the car carrier via Smart Summon.

 

[Remus]

20 years? You really believe that? Everyone is working increasing battery density, everyone is working solid state batteries. Toyota will debut solid state batteries next summer in the transports they are building for the summer games in Japan. Competition does not stand still, especially as I stated in another post when profit is the motivator.

Nokia is releasing its own smart phone and apple is doomed.

 

[KarenRei]

New Bloomberg data out!
Tesla’s Hell Moves From the Production Line to the Repair Shop

Summary (with graphics) here:
Nafnlaus on Twitter

 

[Artful Dodger]

I have to point out that unless it's a direct drive from the motor to the wheels all EV's do in fact have gears. The Tesla transaxle has a number of gears in it.

Hold up. Is that gear cells, or gear modules?